AI Model:

Jayson Tatum▼

BOS · PF

PPG

19.1

RPG

8.9

APG

3.3

L5 PPG

18.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.3

19.1

18.8

RPG+1.3

8.9

10.2

APG-0.3

3.3

3.0

SPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

BPG0.0

0.0

UNDER 20.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

20.5

NYK

2025-04-08

2025-04-08 vs NYK: 32 pts

CHA

2025-04-11

2025-04-11 vs CHA: 16 pts

DAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DAL: 15 pts

CLE

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CLE: 20 pts

SAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAS: 24 pts

WAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs WAS: 20 pts

PHX

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs PHX: 21 pts

GSW

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs GSW: 24 pts

MEM

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs MEM: 13 pts

MIN

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs MIN: 16 pts

Over 20.5

Under 20.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 20.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

3PM

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

81%

STL

UNDER 1

56%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

58%

OVER 2

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.4

24.7

RPG

9.0

7.5

APG

5.9

5.0

vs OKC (H2H)9 games

PPG

29.2

RPG

8.2

APG

4.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Andrew Wiggins	1	6	75%	+8.8%	low
Jaden McDaniels	1	5	50%	+8.8%	low
Chet Holmgren	1	5	50%	-7.9%	low
Taylor Hendricks	1	5	67%

Tatum’s scoring is muted, but rebounds and 3s remain the clearest angles

Jayson Tatum comes in with season averages of 19.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists over 29.8 MPG, with his recent form trending down from his last-20 scoring mark of 22.8 to 18.8 over the last 5. His home split is solid for rebounds at 9.0 per game and assists at 5.9, but his recent scoring has been inconsistent and his season shooting has lagged at 38.8% from the field and 29.3% from three. Against Oklahoma City, his history is strong at 29.2 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 4.1 APG in 9 games, but the current matchup context points more to efficiency and role-based production than a pure points spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.8(↓ from 19.1)

RPG

10.2(↑ from 8.9)

APG

3.0(↓ from 3.3)

3PM

2.6(→ from 2.8)

Key Matchup

He has strong history versus Oklahoma City, averaging 29.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 4.1 assists in 9 games. The provided key defender data shows Jalen Williams, Kenrich Williams, and Chet Holmgren, but there is no specific defender matchup data beyond their listed minutes and points allowed, so the matchup should be treated as a general team context rather than a single-defender edge.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Jayson Tatum▼	Points	20.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	FLIP	19	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	Rebounds	8.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		12	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		7	✗
Jayson Tatum▼	3PM	3.5	UNDER	81%HIGH	1/2	70%	FLIP	3	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	Steals	1	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	FLIP	3	✗
Jayson Tatum▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%		4	✗
Jayson Tatum▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	20%		5	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA36.5OVER19%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 6x7/1450%▼

PTS21.5OVER6%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 5x7/1450%▼

AST4.5OVER51%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 6x8/1457%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

P+R31.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 5x7/1450%▼

STL0.5OVER35%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x10/1471%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A15.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x7/1450%▼

REB8.5UNDER16%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x10/1471%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.420; Scorecard changed -4.0▼

3PM3.5UNDER36%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)5/1436%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A26.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 5x6/1443%▼

Featured Pick

Jayson Tatum

Threes UNDER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data: season average 2.75, last-5 average 2.6, and a DraftKings value prop showing a 0.217 edge with 34.1 EV per 100. The line is well above his normal production, and his recent shooting trend does not support a three-point spike.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Chet Holmgren	1	5	3	33%	50%
Jalen Williams	1	2	4	67%	67%
Alex Caruso	1	2	3	50%	75%
Cason Wallace	1	1	0	0%	0%
Ajay Mitchell	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 20.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 19.1 and his last-5 is 18.8, both below 20.5. The recent trend is down, and his current shooting splits are weak at 38.8% FG and 29.3% from three.

reboundsOVER 8.566%MEDIUM

He is averaging 8.9 rebounds for the season and 10.2 over the last 5, with a strong home rebound split of 9.0 and a last-20 mark of 8.2. The 8.5 line sits directly in his normal range, and recent boards support the over.

assistsUNDER 3.560%MEDIUM

Season assists are 3.3, and the last-5 is 3.0, both below 3.5. His recent distribution has not shown a meaningful uptick, and the under aligns with his baseline usage.

threesUNDER 3.581%HIGH

He averages 2.75 threes on the season and 2.6 over the last 5, well below 3.5. The value data also strongly favors the under, with a 0.217 edge and 34.1 EV per 100 at DraftKings.

stealsUNDER 156%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals on the season and 1.2 over the last 5, so this is near his mean but not an easy over. With only moderate volume and some variance, the safer lean is under on a projected 1.0 line.

stocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.13 and last-5 is 1.2, both below a typical 1.5 threshold. The combined defensive production is useful but not enough to justify an over with high confidence.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

He has 2.2 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 1.7 over the last 10, so 2.0 is a fair target. His higher-usage games have produced turnover pressure, making the over playable.

timelineUNDER 20.5 PTS