AI Model:

Luguentz Dort▼

OKC · SG

PPG

8.4

RPG

3.8

APG

1.3

L5 PPG

4.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.0

8.4

4.4

RPG-1.0

3.8

2.8

APG-0.9

1.3

0.4

SPG-0.4

0.8

0.4

BPG0.0

0.4

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

DEN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DEN: 8 pts

DAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DAL: 5 pts

CHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CHI: 4 pts

NYK

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs NYK: 16 pts

GSW

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs GSW: 8 pts

DEN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs DEN: 6 pts

BOS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BOS: 6 pts

MIN

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIN: 3 pts

ORL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs ORL: 5 pts

PHI

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs PHI: 2 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5STAKE

67%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

56%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

71%

3PM

UNDER 1.5STAKE

55%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

78%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

74%

OVER 0.5

58%

P+R

UNDER 13.5STAKE

66%

P+A

UNDER 11.5STAKE

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.2

7.2

RPG

3.5

3.4

APG

1.3

1.4

vs BOS (H2H)10 games

PPG

15.1

RPG

4.9

APG

1.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kevin Durant	2	21	50%	+11.5%	low
Jamal Murray	3	19	45%	+4.4%	medium
Brandon Ingram	2	18	31%	-10.7%	low
Anthony Edwards	3	17	71%

Dort’s scoring outlook is muted despite a favorable history vs Boston

Luguentz Dort’s season line sits at 8.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 1.3 APG, but his recent form has trended down to 4.4 PPG over the last 5 and 6.3 PPG over the last 10. He did score 6 points with 6 rebounds in his last meeting vs Boston on 2026-03-12, and his head-to-head average of 15.1 PPG across 10 games is notable, but the current trend and reduced recent minutes make that harder to trust. Boston’s defense context is solid with a 106.96 defensive rating and -1.903 scoring suppression, which adds pressure to an already low-volume scoring profile. The biggest edge on the board comes from rebounds, where his volume is steadier than his points and the book has offered a softer 2.5 line in value markets.

Stat Trends

PPG

4.4(↓ from 8.4)

RPG

2.8(↓ from 3.8)

APG

0.4(↓ from 1.3)

3PM

1.0(↓ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data can be isolated from the provided information beyond the listed Celtics defenders, and Boston’s team defense shows a 106.96 defensive rating with -1.903 scoring suppression. Dort’s prior 15.1 PPG in 10 games vs this opponent is a positive historical note, but the current matchup environment is not especially favorable for scoring.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Luguentz Dort▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	90%		14	✗
Luguentz Dort▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	30%		5	✗
Luguentz Dort▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	80%		0	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		4	✗
Luguentz Dort▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	100%		0	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	90%	FLIP	1	✗
Luguentz Dort▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	90%		1	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	Turnovers	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%		3	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	P+R	13.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		19	✗
Luguentz Dort▼	P+A	11.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	90%		14	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS7.5OVER4%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.040▼

P+A9.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

PRA10.5OVER21%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x12/2060%+5.9% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB2.5OVER29%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)13/2065%+14.3% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted +0.348▼

3PM1.5UNDER35%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x12/2060%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted -0.189▼

R+A4.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

P+R11.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Luguentz Dort

Rebounds OVER 2.5HIGH

This is the clearest value spot in the data: the value market shows a 18.9% edge with an expected +32.06 EV per 100 at betonlineag, and his season rebounding average is 3.76. Even with recent dip risk, the rebounding baseline is strong enough to support the over at 2.5.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaylen Brown	2	14	19	46%	50%
Payton Pritchard	2	2	0	0%	0%
Baylor Scheierman	1	1	3	50%	75%
Neemias Queta	2	1	2	100%	100%
Derrick White	1	1	3	100%	150%

pointsUNDER 9.567%MEDIUM

His season mean is 8.36 points, below the 9.5 line, and his last 5 has fallen to 4.4 PPG. Boston’s scoring suppression context also leans against an over.

reboundsUNDER 3.556%MEDIUM

He averages 3.76 rebounds on the season and 3.8 over the last 10, but the last 5 dipped to 2.8 RPG. This is close enough to the line that the under is only modestly preferred.

assistsUNDER 1.571%HIGH

His season assist average is 1.25 and the last 5 is just 0.4 APG, well below the line. The recent trend is clearly weaker than his already modest season rate.

threesUNDER 1.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.81 threes for the season, but recent volume is down to 1.0 made threes over the last 5. The line is still reachable, but the recent decline makes the under slightly safer.

stealsUNDER 1.578%HIGH

He averages 0.8 steals on the season and only 0.4 over the last 5. A 1.5 steals line is above his typical production level.

blocksUNDER 0.563%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 blocks per game on the season, so the 0.5 line requires an above-average outcome. Recent block rate is also only 0.4 over the last 5.

stocksUNDER 1.574%HIGH

His season stocks average is 1.22 and last 10 is just 0.6, so 1.5 is a high ask. The combined defensive production has been trending down.

turnoversOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 turnovers over the last 20 and 0.8 over the last 10, which is above a 0.5 line. The recent game log shows multiple games with at least one turnover.

prUNDER 13.566%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds is about 12.16, below 13.5, and the recent scoring dip lowers the projection further. The combo prop carries extra variance, so the under is preferable.

paUNDER 11.568%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists is about 9.66, well below 11.5. Recent assists have been especially weak at 0.4 over the last 5.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Dort’s scoring outlook is muted despite a favorable history vs Boston

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 9.5 PTS