AI Model:

Dylan Harper▲

SAS · PG

PPG

11.7

RPG

3.4

APG

3.9

L5 PPG

15.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.9

11.7

15.6

RPG+1.2

3.4

4.6

APG+0.9

3.9

4.8

SPG-0.8

0.8

0.0

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

OVER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

7.5

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 22 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 7 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 8 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 19 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 9 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 13 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 15 pts

PHX

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHX: 5 pts

IND

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs IND: 24 pts

MIA

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs MIA: 21 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 7.5STAKE

67%

REB

OVER 2.5STAKE

60%

AST

OVER 2.5STAKE

58%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1

57%

OVER 1.5

56%

P+A

UNDER 10.5STAKE

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.5

13.6

RPG

3.5

3.6

APG

4.0

5.0

vs MEM (H2H)2 games

PPG

9.5

RPG

1.5

APG

4.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Reed Sheppard	3	13	55%	-0.9%	medium
Walter Clayton Jr.	4	9	50%	-10.9%	medium
Isaiah Collier	3	8	33%	-17.6%	medium
Jeremiah Fears	3	8	40%

Fox’s absence boosts Harper’s role, but the price is still inflated

Dylan Harper is trending up, with his last 5 games at 15.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, and 4.8 APG versus season marks of 11.7, 3.4, and 3.9. The minutes have also ticked up from 22.5 season-long to 24.6 over the last 5, but his last-10 points (14.3) still sit well above his season mean, so some regression risk remains. The matchup is softened by multiple opponent absences, while his head-to-head line is modest at 9.5 PPG and 4.5 APG over 2 games, and the current sportsbook points line of 7.5 is far below his recent scoring output. Because the market is already shading him toward a low scoring number, the best value is on his points over rather than combo overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.6(↑ from 11.7)

RPG

4.6(↑ from 3.4)

APG

4.8(↑ from 3.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The opponent context is softened by several absences, and the Grizzlies allow a game environment with 119.06 defensive rating, but the only named defender listed is GG Jackson with no meaningful usage data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Dylan Harper▼	Points	7.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		10	✓
Dylan Harper▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		5	✓
Dylan Harper▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	80%		6	✓
Dylan Harper▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	FLIP	2	✗
Dylan Harper▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	20%		0	✗
Dylan Harper▼	STL+BLK	1	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	80%	1→1.5	1	✗
Dylan Harper▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	30%	FLIP	1	✗
Dylan Harper▼	P+A	10.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	FLIP	16	✗

ML Scout Analysis

AST5UNDER19%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 6x5/2025%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

PRA22UNDER17%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

P+R17OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

P+A18UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

PTS13UNDER15%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

REB3OVER8%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

R+A8UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

3PA3UNDER39%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%▼

FTA0.5UNDER8%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

3PM1UNDER4%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

Featured Pick

Dylan Harper

Points OVER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the line is far below both his season average of 11.7 PPG and his last-10 mark of 14.3 PPG. Even accounting for regression and his 9.5 PPG in two prior meetings, the current number is still too low relative to his recent role and production.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cam Spencer	3	7	8	75%	88%
Javon Small	2	5	0	0%	0%
Jaylen Wells	2	2	2	50%	50%
Cedric Coward	2	2	0	0%	0%
Santi Aldama	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 7.567%MEDIUM

His last 5 games are at 15.6 PPG and last 10 at 14.3, both above the 11.7 season average. The line of 7.5 is well below both his season and recent production, even with some regression risk.

reboundsOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

Harper averages 3.4 RPG on the season and 3.5 over the last 10, so 2.5 is below his normal range. Recent games have also shown 4.6 RPG over the last 5.

assistsOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.9 APG on the season and 4.2 over the last 10, with 4.8 APG over the last 5. The assist line sits well under both his season and recent averages.

threesUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 0.83 threes per game on the season and 1.7 over the last 5, which is elevated relative to his baseline. With a season standard deviation of 0.87, the under is the more conservative side on a volatile prop.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals per game this season, which supports clearing a 0.5 line. However, the last 10 show only 0.2 steals, so confidence stays modest.

stocksUNDER 157%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.07, but the last 5 are only 0.6 and the last 10 are 0.6. Given the volatility and recent dip, the under is the safer side.

turnoversOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He is at 1.3 turnovers over the last 10 and 1.3 over the last 20, with multiple recent 1-2 turnover games. If his role stays expanded, this line would sit near his recent baseline.

paUNDER 10.555%MEDIUM

Points plus assists is supported by his recent form, but combo props carry extra variance and his season scoring baseline is only 11.7 PPG and 3.9 APG. With over bias in combo markets, the under is the more cautious lean.

timelineOVER 7.5 PTS