AI Model:

Keldon Johnson▲

SAS · SF

PPG

12.8

RPG

5.5

APG

1.3

L5 PPG

15.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.6

12.8

15.4

RPG-1.5

5.5

4.0

APG+0.1

1.3

1.4

SPG-0.5

0.5

0.0

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

13.5

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 10 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 20 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 8 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 5 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 13 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 8 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 18 pts

PHX

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHX: 6 pts

IND

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs IND: 24 pts

MIA

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs MIA: 21 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

REB

UNDER 5.5STAKE

61%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

82%

3PM

UNDER 1.5STAKE

58%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

76%

R+A

UNDER 6.5STAKE

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.8

11.3

RPG

4.0

4.3

APG

1.2

0.9

vs MEM (H2H)20 games

PPG

15.4

RPG

5.5

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kevin Durant	4	14	60%	+7.8%	medium
Julius Randle	3	11	38%	-14.7%	medium
Nikola Jokić	3	10	17%	-35.5%	medium
Al Horford	3	8	50%

Johnson’s role is steady, but the market is already pricing in a low-usage night

Keldon Johnson is averaging 12.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 1.3 APG on 23.1 MPG, with recent scoring at 15.4 PPG over the last 5 games but only 13.3 over the last 10. His recent form is better than his season baseline, yet the last-20 scoring mark of 11.6 suggests the hot streak may not fully hold. The matchup environment is mixed: Memphis is missing several rotation pieces, but Johnson’s own head-to-head production vs this opponent is 15.45 PPG and 5.5 RPG across 20 games, which supports his floor more than his ceiling.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.4(↑ from 12.8)

RPG

4.0(↓ from 5.5)

APG

1.4(→ from 1.3)

3PM

1.4(→ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. Memphis has a 119.06 defensive rating and a 100 pace, while the opponent’s scoring suppression and three suppression figures suggest an environment that is not especially friendly for ceiling outcomes.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Keldon Johnson▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	60%	15	✗
Keldon Johnson▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	7	✗
Keldon Johnson▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	1/2	70%	3	✗
Keldon Johnson▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	1	✓
Keldon Johnson▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	—	100%	0	✓
Keldon Johnson▼	R+A	6.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	10	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

P+R17UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Keldon Johnson

Points UNDER 13.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the value data already flags UNDER 13.5 at DraftKings with a 11.8% edge and 22.52 EV per 100. His season mean is 12.8 PPG, and the recent hot stretch is balanced by a 11.6 PPG last-20 mark, making the under the safer side.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaylen Wells	3	7	5	50%	50%
Santi Aldama	3	6	6	29%	29%
GG Jackson	2	6	5	50%	75%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	3	5	0	0%	0%
Cedric Coward	3	3	7	75%	88%

pointsUNDER 13.578%HIGH

Season scoring is 12.8 PPG and the value data shows UNDER on 13.5 at DraftKings with a 11.8% edge and 22.52 EV per 100. His last-5 spike to 15.4 is above season level, but the last-20 average of 11.6 and 23.1 MPG keep this below the posted line.

reboundsUNDER 5.561%MEDIUM

He averages 5.5 RPG for the season but only 4.5 over the last 10 and 4.0 over the last 5. The under is supported by recent production and his 22.6 recent MPG.

assistsUNDER 1.582%HIGH

Johnson averages just 1.3 APG on the season and 1.2 over the last 10, so 1.5 is slightly above his typical output. The assist profile is low-variance, but the model still points under given the limited passing role.

threesUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.21 made threes on the season and 1.7 over the last 5, but that recent uptick is not as strong over the last 10 at 1.7 with a season std of 1.28. This is a tighter call, but the posted 1.5 line is still a difficult over to trust at lower confidence.

stealsUNDER 0.576%HIGH

He has only 0.5 SPG on the season and 0.0 over the last 5, with recent stocks at 0.1 over the last 10. That makes the under the more stable side on a low-volume defensive stat.

raUNDER 6.564%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists average is 6.8, but the last-10 drops to 5.7 and his recent assists are modest. Combo props add variance, so the under is preferred with the season baseline only slightly above the line.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Johnson’s role is steady, but the market is already pricing in a low-usage night

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 13.5 PTS