AI Model:

Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼

MEM · C

PPG

9.0

RPG

3.5

APG

1.0

L5 PPG

12.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.8

9.0

12.8

RPG+0.7

3.5

4.2

APG-0.2

1.0

0.8

SPG+0.9

0.7

1.6

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 11 pts

BKN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs BKN: 15 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 11 pts

DAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DAL: 9 pts

DET

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DET: 17 pts

CHI

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs CHI: 13 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 19 pts

BOS

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs BOS: 14 pts

CHA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs CHA: 10 pts

ATL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs ATL: 8 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

83%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

AST

UNDER 1

72%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

STL

OVER 0.8

67%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

70%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

69%

UNDER 2

76%

PRA

UNDER 13

68%

P+A

UNDER 10

77%

UNDER 0.5

82%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.1

13.1

RPG

4.6

4.2

APG

1.4

1.2

vs SAS (H2H)5 games

PPG

1.8

RPG

2.4

APG

0.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Donovan Clingan	3	13	72%	+13.8%	medium
Rudy Gobert	4	8	50%	-4.9%	medium
Nikola Jokić	2	8	75%	+7.6%	low
Julius Randle	4	7	65%

Heavy-minute role, but the numbers still lean to the under

Olivier-Maxence Prosper is in a clear expanded role with 25.4 MPG over his last 10 and multiple teammate absences boosting usage. His recent scoring is up to 12.7 PPG over the last 10 and 12.8 over the last 5, but that is still only modestly above his 9.04 season mean, and his trend is marked down. The matchup data is not supportive for a big spike: he has only 1.8 PPG in 5 games vs this opponent, and the opponent profile shows a pace of 100 with scoring suppression at -0.84.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.8(↑ from 9.0)

RPG

4.2(↑ from 3.5)

APG

0.8(→ from 1.0)

3PM

1.2(↑ from 1.0)

Key Matchup

The opponent data shows no specific defender matchup data, so there is no named perimeter or interior stopper to target here. The broader matchup is neutral-to-slightly difficult for scoring, with opponent defense at 111.69, pace at 100, and scoring suppression at -0.84.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	83%HIGH	2/2	50%	FLIP	17	✗
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	60%	FLIP	5	✗
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	Assists	1	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	70%		0	✓
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	60%	FLIP	3	✗
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	Steals	0.8	OVER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	0.5→0.8	0	✗
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	60%		0	✓
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	69%MEDIUM	—	40%		0	✗
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	76%HIGH	—	100%	FLIP	1	✓
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	PRA	13	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	10%	13→13.5	22	✗
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	P+A	10	UNDER	77%HIGH	1/2	10%	—	17	✗
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	—	—		—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+A16UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Points UNDER 11.5HIGH

This is the cleanest play from the value sheet: UNDER 11.5 points shows a 14.8% edge at FanDuel and a 13.9% edge at DraftKings, with our model giving the under a 0.653 probability. His season mean is only 9.04 PPG, and his 1.8 PPG in 5 games vs this opponent strongly supports the under despite the recent minutes bump.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Victor Wembanyama	1	3	5	40%	50%
Dylan Harper	2	2	7	50%	58%
Stephon Castle	1	2	2	0%	0%
Bismack Biyombo	1	1	0	0%	0%
Harrison Barnes	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 11.583%HIGH

The value data flags UNDER with a 14.8% edge at FanDuel and a 13.9% edge at DraftKings, with our projected under probability at 0.653. His season mean is 9.04 PPG, and although recent scoring is higher, the last-5 run has already outpaced the season baseline enough to warrant regression caution.

reboundsUNDER 4.578%HIGH

He averages 3.5 RPG for the season and 4.2 over the last 5, which is close to the line but still not a strong over case. The value sheet also shows UNDER on 4.5 rebounds across books, with the best edge listed at 12.4%.

assistsUNDER 172%HIGH

His season mean is 0.98 APG and his last-10 is exactly 1.0 APG, so this is basically a coin-flip area. With low assist volume and only 0.8 APG over the last 5, the under is the slightly safer side.

threesUNDER 1.574%HIGH

He averages 1.0 made threes per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, but the market is already at 1.5. The provided value props show UNDER is the preferred side at multiple books, and the recent surge is not strong enough to ignore the season baseline.

stealsOVER 0.867%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 SPG on the season, but recent defensive production has jumped to 1.6 over the last 5 and 1.4 over the last 10. That said, the standard deviation for steals is not provided, so this stays a modest-confidence over.

blocksUNDER 0.570%HIGH

His season average is only 0.3 BPG and his last-10 is 0.4 BPG, both below a 0.5 line. The recent form does not show enough shot-block volume to justify an over.

stocksOVER 1.569%MEDIUM

He is averaging 1.0 stocks on the season and 1.8 over the last 5 and last 10. The recent defensive activity is strong enough to support over 1.5, even though combo-type volatility keeps the confidence capped.

turnoversUNDER 276%HIGH

He is at 1.0 TO per game over the last 5 and 1.3 over the last 10, with a season mark of 1.0. That leaves him well short of a 2.0 turnover line.

praUNDER 1368%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 13.54 based on the provided means, and recent form is higher with the expanded minutes. Even so, combo props are more volatile, and the season baseline plus his poor history vs this opponent argue for caution.

paUNDER 1077%HIGH

Points plus assists remain heavily driven by scoring because his assist rate is low at 0.98 APG season-long. The 11.5 points market is already a strong under signal, which makes the PA under the cleaner combo angle.

double_doubleUNDER 0.582%HIGH

He does not have consistent double-double indicators based on 9.04 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 0.98 APG. Even with more minutes, his statistical profile is far from a reliable DD setup.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS