AI Model:

Walter Clayton Jr.▲

MEM · PG

PPG

7.4

RPG

2.0

APG

3.9

L5 PPG

9.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.0

7.4

9.4

RPG+0.4

2.0

2.4

APG+0.3

3.9

4.2

SPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

10.5

IND

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs IND: 7 pts

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 9 pts

POR

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs POR: 12 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 2 pts

BKN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs BKN: 13 pts

CHI

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs CHI: 12 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 4 pts

BOS

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs BOS: 4 pts

CHA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs CHA: 11 pts

ATL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs ATL: 16 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

AST

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

REB

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

STL

OVER 0.5

57%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

70%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

OVER 2

58%

P+A

OVER 10.5STAKE

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

4.9

10.4

RPG

1.6

2.4

APG

3.8

6.0

vs SAS (H2H)2 games

PPG

12.5

RPG

2.5

APG

6.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Ryan Nembhard	4	9	58%	+11.9%	medium
Payton Pritchard	3	8	42%	-4.8%	medium
Dylan Harper	4	6	75%	+36.9%	medium
Aaron Holiday	3	6	60%

Minutes are up, but scoring efficiency still keeps Walter Clayton Jr. capped

Walter Clayton Jr. is trending up in workload, with his last 5 games at 24.6 MPG compared to 19.8 MPG for the season, and his last 10 at 25.5 MPG. Even with that bump, his season scoring sits at 7.4 PPG and his home split is only 4.9 PPG, while his away production is better at 10.4 PPG. The injury situation boosts his opportunity — especially with multiple high-usage teammates out — but his 37.7% FG rate and 29.3% three-point rate still make his offense volatile. The matchup environment is not a major scoring tailwind, so the strongest angle remains a modest points under while assists stay viable on the higher minute role.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.4(↑ from 7.4)

APG

4.2(↑ from 3.9)

MPG

24.6(↑ from 19.8)

Key Matchup

The opponent defense data shows a 111.69 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a three-point suppression of -0.513, which does not strongly boost his scoring outlook. key_defenders data is present, but the provided fields only show limited allowance splits, so the matchup edge is more about the team environment than a clear individual stopper.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	50%	7.5→10.5	10	✓
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3.5→4.5	6	✓
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		2	✓
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	FLIP	2	✗
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%		0	✗
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	70%		1	✗
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	50%		1	✓
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%	2→2.5	2	✗
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	P+A	10.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	10.5→11.5	16	✓

ML Scout Analysis

R+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

P+A15OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

P+R11.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Walter Clayton Jr.

Points UNDER 10.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season scoring is 7.4 PPG and the recent 9.4 PPG still sits below the line. The value props reinforce the under, including a 0.087 best edge at DraftKings and positive under EV, while his shooting percentages remain inefficient at 37.7% FG and 29.3% from three.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Dylan Harper	4	6	6	75%	75%
Stephon Castle	4	5	9	67%	75%
De'Aaron Fox	2	5	10	80%	100%
Keldon Johnson	4	4	7	60%	70%
Julian Champagnie	4	3	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 10.574%HIGH

His season average is 7.4 PPG, and even the recent 9.4 PPG last 5 is still below 10.5. Value data also points to UNDER with a 0.087 best edge at DraftKings and projected under EV of 16.19.

assistsOVER 4.561%MEDIUM

He is at 3.92 APG for the season but 6.2 APG over the last 10 and 4.74 APG in away games, which supports a higher playmaking floor. The recent minutes increase to 25.5 MPG gives him a better chance to clear a modest 4.5 line.

reboundsUNDER 2.569%MEDIUM

He averages just 2.03 RPG on the season and 2.0 RPG over the last 10, so 2.5 is a little high for his profile. His home rebound rate is only 1.6 RPG, which also leans under.

threesUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

He averages 1.02 made threes per game on the season and 1.2 over the last 10, but the 1.5 line requires a stronger shooting night than his 29.3% season three-point rate suggests. The value screen also shows UNDER edges across books on this number.

stealsOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 SPG for the season and 1.2 over the last 10, which is enough to justify a look at 0.5. The recent defensive activity is better than the season baseline, though variance is still meaningful.

blocksUNDER 0.570%HIGH

He averages only 0.3 BPG on the season and 0.3 over the last 10, so 0.5 is above his typical block production. This is a low-frequency stat for his role.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.95 and last 10 is 1.5, but that still makes 1.5 a volatile threshold. Given the combined stat variance, the under is the safer side.

turnoversOVER 258%MEDIUM

He has 2.3 TO per game over the last 20 and 2.6 over the last 10, showing a fairly turnover-prone playmaking role. With the ball handling load rising, 2.0 is reachable.

paOVER 10.556%MEDIUM

He averages 3.92 assists and 7.4 points for a combined 11.32 season point-assist production, and the last 10 assist surge improves the case. This is still a combo prop, so confidence stays moderate.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS