AI Model:

Brandon Ingram▼

TOR · SG

PPG

21.6

RPG

5.6

APG

3.7

L5 PPG

22.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.0

21.6

22.6

RPG-1.2

5.6

4.4

APG-1.7

3.7

2.0

SPG-0.6

0.8

0.2

BPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 31 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 14 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 11 pts

HOU

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs HOU: 9 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 22 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 36 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 34 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DEN: 19 pts

PHX

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs PHX: 6 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5STAKE

67%

REB

UNDER 5.5STAKE

63%

AST

UNDER 3.5STAKE

58%

3PM

UNDER 1.5

61%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

55%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

OVER 2.5

62%

P+R

UNDER 27.5STAKE

64%

P+A

UNDER 25.5STAKE

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

22.7

18.3

RPG

5.0

4.9

APG

3.5

3.8

vs LAC (H2H)14 games

PPG

21.6

RPG

5.8

APG

5.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Noah Clowney	3	19	54%	-0.9%	medium
Gary Trent Jr.	4	17	45%	-17.1%	medium
Zaccharie Risacher	4	16	44%	-9.6%	medium
Tobias Harris	3	16	83%

Ingram’s scoring outlook is balanced, with rebounding and assist support but limited margin

Brandon Ingram is sitting at 21.6 PPG on the season, with recent scoring dipping to 20.0 over the last 10 and a clear down trend in the data. His last 5 games show a small scoring bump to 22.6 PPG, but that comes with 3.0 turnovers and just 2.0 APG, so the recent form is not a clean green light. The matchup is complicated by a listed key defender, Kawhi Leonard, and the Clippers’ defensive profile shows a 112.87 defensive rating with 1.03 three suppression, which leans against an easy over. With Ingram questionable due to a right foot injury and his away scoring at 18.3 PPG versus 22.7 at home, the safer angle is to lean under on inflated scoring and combo lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

22.6(↑ from 21.6)

RPG

4.4(↓ from 5.6)

APG

2.0(↓ from 3.7)

Stocks

0.8(↓ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

Kawhi Leonard is the only specific defender listed, and the matchup data shows he allows 21 points with a 0.381 fg_pct against him. The Clippers also carry a 112.87 defensive rating and 1.03 three suppression, which adds some resistance to efficient scoring.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Brandon Ingram▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	18	✓
Brandon Ingram▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	6	✗
Brandon Ingram▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✗
Brandon Ingram▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✗
Brandon Ingram▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
Brandon Ingram▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✓
Brandon Ingram▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✗
Brandon Ingram▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	70%	3	✓
Brandon Ingram▼	P+R	27.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	24	✓
Brandon Ingram▼	P+A	25.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	22	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS22.5UNDER5%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 8x5/2025%+19.6% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

REB5.5UNDER11%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed -0.034▼

PRA30.5UNDER29%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 8x7/2035%+10.1% edge▼

P+R25UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 8x7/2035%▼

AST3.5UNDER26%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x12/2060%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted -0.270▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+A23.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 8x8/2040%▼

3PM1.5OVER2%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Brandon Ingram

Points UNDER 21.5HIGH

His season average is 21.6, but the last 10 is down to 20.0 and his away average is only 18.3. Add in questionable status, recent 6-point output, and a defensive matchup that does not project as easy, and the under has the strongest support.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kobe Sanders	1	7	8	75%	88%
John Collins	1	5	0	0%	0%
Kris Dunn	2	4	0	0%	0%
Derrick Jones Jr.	1	3	0	0%	0%
Nicolas Batum	2	3	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 21.567%MEDIUM

His season mean is 21.6, but his last 10 is 20.0 and away scoring is 18.3. With questionable status and a tougher defensive setup, the under is slightly preferable to the over.

reboundsUNDER 5.563%MEDIUM

He averages 5.6 rebounds on the season, but only 4.5 over the last 10 and 4.4 over the last 5. The line is right on his season mark, so the recent dip and variance point to a modest under lean.

assistsUNDER 3.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 3.7 APG, but the last 5 dropped to 2.0 and the last 10 sits at 3.0. Since the line is only 3.5, this is close, but recent distribution supports the under.

threesUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.78 threes on the season, but the last 10 is 1.7 and away production drops to 1.2. The three-point line is not provided directly, so this projected line is based on season mean rounded to the nearest 0.5.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals on the season, and the line is just 0.5. Even with some recent volatility, the season baseline is strong enough to support a slight over lean.

blocksOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 blocks per game on the season and 0.5 over the last 10. The prop is low enough that his rim event rate still supports an over lean.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His combined steals plus blocks season average is 1.5, but the last 5 is only 0.8 and the last 10 is 1.3. With recent form below season level, the under is the safer side at a 1.5 projection.

turnoversOVER 2.562%MEDIUM

He is at 2.4 turnovers per game on the last 20 and 2.8 over the last 10, with 3.0 in the last 5. A projected 2.5 line fits the current turnover profile, and the over is supported by recent volatility.

prUNDER 27.564%MEDIUM

Points plus rebounds is exactly the type of combo that can be fragile when scoring and boards are both near or below season norms. With 21.6 PPG and 5.6 RPG, the combined season baseline is 27.2, making the under slightly attractive versus an inflated 27.5.

paUNDER 25.563%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists baseline is 25.3, while recent assist form has weakened to 2.0 over the last 5. That makes the under the cleaner side on a 25.5 line.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Ingram’s scoring outlook is balanced, with rebounding and assist support but limited margin

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 21.5 PTS