AI Model:

Brook Lopez▲

LAC · C

PPG

7.8

RPG

3.2

APG

1.2

L5 PPG

9.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.0

7.8

9.8

RPG+1.0

3.2

4.2

APG+1.2

1.2

2.4

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG+0.3

1.1

1.4

OVER 6.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

6.5

MEM

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MEM: 4 pts

NYK

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs NYK: 16 pts

MIN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs MIN: 3 pts

CHI

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CHI: 11 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 0 pts

SAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs SAS: 3 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs NOP: 6 pts

DAL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs DAL: 10 pts

MIL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs MIL: 19 pts

Over 6.5

Under 6.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 6.5STAKE

56%

REB

OVER 2.5STAKE

62%

AST

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

STL

OVER 0.5

54%

BLK

OVER 0.5

67%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

60%

OVER 0.5

52%

P+R

OVER 9.5STAKE

51%

P+A

OVER 7.5STAKE

50%

UNDER 0.5

72%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.1

11.2

RPG

4.0

4.6

APG

1.9

1.8

vs TOR (H2H)13 games

PPG

12.8

RPG

5.8

APG

1.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Rudy Gobert	4	25	83%	+41.3%	medium
Alperen Sengun	4	19	54%	+10.2%	medium
Donovan Clingan	3	16	56%	-4.5%	medium
Maxime Raynaud	3	16	92%

Minutes bump boosts Lopez, but scoring remains volatile

Brook Lopez is trending up, with his last 5 rising to 9.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 2.4 APG from a season baseline of 7.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 1.2 APG. His minutes have also climbed from 21 season MPG to 28.2 in the last 5, which supports his recent spike, but the scoring output still swings sharply and his standard deviations are large. The matchup is workable: Toronto carries a 112.3 defensive rating with -0.703 scoring suppression and -0.58 three suppression, while Lopez has posted 12.846153846153847 PPG and 5.769230769230769 RPG in 13 games versus this opponent. With Ivica Zubac out, Lopez should retain an expanded role, but the best angle is still on conservative volume-based props rather than chasing his points ceiling.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.8(↑ from 7.8)

RPG

4.2(↑ from 3.2)

APG

2.4(↑ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and the opponent profile shows a 112.3 defensive rating with -0.703 scoring suppression and -0.58 three suppression. Lopez has a strong 13-game history versus this opponent at 12.846153846153847 PPG and 5.769230769230769 RPG, which supports a steady floor.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Brook Lopez▼	Points	6.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		14	✓
Brook Lopez▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	70%		5	✓
Brook Lopez▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	80%		0	✗
Brook Lopez▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	30%		3	✓
Brook Lopez▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	30%	—	2	✓
Brook Lopez▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	80%		5	✓
Brook Lopez▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	50%		7	✓
Brook Lopez▼	Turnovers	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	40%		1	✓
Brook Lopez▼	P+R	9.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		19	✓
Brook Lopez▼	P+A	7.5	OVER	50%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	—	14	✓
Brook Lopez▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER3%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

AST1.5OVER26%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)14/2070%+12.6% edge▼

P+A13UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

P+R15.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

REB4.5OVER14%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

BLK1.5UNDER66%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

3PM1.5UNDER7%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%+10.3% edge▼

PRA18.5OVER5%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.148; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

R+A6.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Brook Lopez

Blocks OVER 0.5HIGH

This is the cleanest prop from the data: Lopez averages 1.1 blocks on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, so 0.5 is well below his typical production. Unlike points or combo props, this line is less exposed to scoring volatility and role swings.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Collin Murray-Boyles	2	4	4	50%	50%
Jakob Poeltl	1	3	4	50%	50%
Scottie Barnes	2	2	4	25%	25%
Sandro Mamukelashvili	2	2	2	33%	33%
Brandon Ingram	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 6.556%MEDIUM

His season mean is 7.8 points and his last 10 is 8.3, both above 6.5, and Zubac being out should help preserve usage and minutes. The recent form is better at 9.8 PPG over the last 5, though the scoring variance is high.

reboundsOVER 2.562%MEDIUM

Lopez averages 3.2 RPG on the season, 3.6 over the last 10, and 4.2 over the last 5, all clear of 2.5. Even with a volatile role, this is a low bar relative to his recent production and expanded minutes.

assistsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 APG season-long and 1.9 APG over the last 10, so 0.5 is a very accessible threshold. The last 5 jump to 2.4 APG reinforces the over, although assist volume is still modest overall.

threesOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.45 threes per game on the season and 1.3 over the last 5, which keeps this close but viable. Recent minutes and a 1.61 home mean support the over, but the margin is thin.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

Season steals are 0.6 per game and his last 20 is 0.8, so he is live to get one. This is still a volatile category, so confidence stays modest.

blocksOVER 0.567%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 blocks per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, making 0.5 a strong threshold. Even with standard deviation, this is one of his cleaner overs.

stocksOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.7 and the last 10 is 1.9, both above 1.5. Because stocks add variance, the play is solid but not elite.

turnoversOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He has 0.7 turnovers per game over the last 10 and 0.8 over the last 20, so 0.5 is reachable. The profile is still low-usage, so this remains a small lean only.

prOVER 9.551%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds total is 11.0 and his last 5 is 14.0, but combo props carry extra variance. The current role boost helps, yet this is not as safe as the single-stat overs.

paOVER 7.550%MEDIUM

He averages 9.0 points plus assists on the season and 12.2 over the last 5, which clears 7.5. Still, combo variance keeps confidence limited.

double_doubleUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He is not close to double-double territory based on season averages of 7.8 PPG and 3.2 RPG, and his recent spike still does not suggest reliable 10/10 upside. This is the safer side given the distribution of his production.

timelineOVER 6.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Minutes bump boosts Lopez, but scoring remains volatile

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

OVER 6.5 PTS