AI Model:

Darius Garland▲

LAC · PG

PPG

18.8

RPG

2.4

APG

6.9

L5 PPG

23.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.0

18.8

23.8

RPG-0.2

2.4

2.2

APG+1.1

6.9

8.0

SPG+0.3

0.9

1.2

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 20.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

20.5

GSW

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs GSW: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs IND: 12 pts

MEM

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MEM: 21 pts

NYK

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs NYK: 23 pts

MIN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs MIN: 21 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 25 pts

SAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs SAS: 25 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 13 pts

DAL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs DAL: 41 pts

MIL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs MIL: 15 pts

Over 20.5

Under 20.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 20.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

REB

OVER 2.5BETMGM

57%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

P+A

UNDER 25.5

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.9

RPG

1.8

2.3

APG

7.1

6.4

vs TOR (H2H)17 games

PPG

17.4

RPG

2.5

APG

8.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Donte DiVincenzo	3	14	100%	+28.5%	medium
Devin Vassell	3	11	70%	+3.5%	medium
Gary Trent Jr.	2	10	42%	-13.2%	low
Andrew Nembhard	4	10	72%

Garland’s usage is trending up, but the book still leans slightly to the under

Darius Garland is coming in hot offensively, with 23.8 PPG and 8.0 APG over his last 5 compared to season marks of 18.8 PPG and 6.9 APG. His recent scoring spike is real, but it also sits above his longer-window form at 20.8 PPG over the last 10 and 19.9 PPG over the last 20, so some regression risk remains. The matchup is workable, though the Raptors’ opponent defense context shows a 112.3 defensive rating and -0.703 scoring suppression, which nudges expectations down a bit. With his season workload at 29.6 MPG and no injury restriction noted, assists and threes remain the cleanest angles, while points are priced tightly to his true range.

Stat Trends

PPG

23.8(↑ from 18.8)

APG

8.0(↑ from 6.9)

3PM

3.8(↑ from 2.7)

Key Matchup

Key defender matchup data is limited to the listed defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to rely on. The broader opponent context is modestly suppressive, with a 112.3 defensive rating and -0.703 scoring suppression, which slightly favors lower-end scoring outcomes.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Darius Garland▼	Points	20.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	18.5→20.5	24	✗
Darius Garland▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		6	✗
Darius Garland▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		5	✓
Darius Garland▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	FLIP	4	✓
Darius Garland▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	60%	—	2	✗
Darius Garland▼	P+A	25.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	FLIP	30	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS20.5OVER11%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.035; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

R+A9OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

REB2.5UNDER33%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)7/2035%+14.0% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted +0.342▼

AST7.5OVER2%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x6/2030%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.307▼

PRA30.5OVER5%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.189; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

P+R22.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

P+A27UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

3PM2.5OVER34%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Darius Garland

Points UNDER 20.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the card, with a 3.9% edge and our model probability of 0.578 on the under. Garland’s recent 23.8 PPG in the last 5 is well above his 18.8 season average and 19.9 last-20 mark, so the market is asking him to sustain an elevated pace that looks a bit aggressive.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jamal Shead	1	8	5	33%	42%
Markelle Fultz	1	2	0	0%	0%
Brandon Ingram	1	1	0	0%	0%
RJ Barrett	1	1	0	0%	0%
Sandro Mamukelashvili	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 20.558%MEDIUM

Value data shows the UNDER at 20.5 has a 3.9% edge with our_prob_under at 0.578. His last 5 scoring is 23.8, but season mean is only 18.75 and the longer sample is closer to 19.9-20.8, so the recent surge looks a bit stretched.

assistsOVER 6.556%MEDIUM

He averages 6.92 assists for the season and 6.9 over the last 10, with a 7.05 home mean. The line is below his season average, but variance is moderate, so this is a reasonable lean rather than a high-confidence play.

threesOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

He is at 2.69 threes per game on the season and 3.8 over the last 5, with 3.3 at home. The recent volume and season baseline both support clearing 2.5, though the standard deviation is high enough to keep confidence in check.

reboundsOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

Value data shows a 4.6% edge on the OVER at 2.5 rebounds, with our_prob_over at 0.511. His season mean is 2.39 and away mean is 2.8, so the projection sits right around the number with small but usable upside.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 stocks on the season and 1.2 over the last 10, which is below a 1.5 threshold. Even with the recent uptick, the baseline still points more toward staying under.

paUNDER 25.554%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists profile is 25.7 from 18.8 PPG and 6.9 APG, but the market lines at 25.5-26.5 are tight and the combo prop carries higher variance. Given the overall caution on combo props, the slight lean is under.

timelineUNDER 20.5 PTS