AI Model:

Jakob Poeltl▼

TOR · C

PPG

10.4

RPG

7.6

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

13.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.0

10.4

13.4

RPG+1.0

7.6

8.6

APG+0.3

2.1

2.4

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

OVER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

WAS

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs WAS: 18 pts

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 9 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 9 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 16 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 8 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 6 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 21 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 17 pts

DEN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DEN: 23 pts

PHX

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs PHX: 0 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 10.5

59%

REB

OVER 7.5

63%

AST

OVER 2

55%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

OVER 1.5

58%

PRA

OVER 20.5

54%

P+R

OVER 18

56%

OVER 0.5

52%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.2

9.3

RPG

8.1

5.9

APG

2.0

1.8

vs LAC (H2H)11 games

PPG

9.6

RPG

7.9

APG

2.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Ryan Kalkbrenner	3	21	57%	-12.7%	medium
Jalen Duren	2	13	75%	+5.2%	low
Kristaps Porziņģis	2	10	41%	-38.5%	low
Andre Drummond	1	10	25%

Poeltl’s rebound ceiling rises with Zubac out, but the back issue keeps the floor in check

Jakob Poeltl is carrying a season line of 10.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists across 25.7 mpg, but his trend is down and his last 20 games sit near those season averages rather than the hotter last 5. He has shown better recent production in points (13.4 last 5) and rebounds (8.6 last 5), yet he is also listed questionable with a back injury, which adds volatility to his minutes and overall output. The matchup is favorable on paper because Ivica Zubac is out, leaving LA without a 10.4 RPG, 30.2 MPG center, but Toronto’s starter still comes with enough health uncertainty to keep confidence moderate. His historical production vs this opponent is 9.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 2.8 assists in 11 games, which supports a solid but not explosive projection.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.4(↑ from 10.4)

RPG

8.6(↑ from 7.6)

APG

2.4(↑ from 2.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The key matchup note is that Ivica Zubac is out, which removes a 10.4 RPG, 30.2 MPG interior presence from the opponent and improves Poeltl’s rebound outlook.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jakob Poeltl▼	Points	10.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	10	✗
Jakob Poeltl▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	6	✗
Jakob Poeltl▼	Assists	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	1	✗
Jakob Poeltl▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✗
Jakob Poeltl▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✗
Jakob Poeltl▼	PRA	20.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	17	✗
Jakob Poeltl▼	P+R	18	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	16	✗
Jakob Poeltl▼	Double-Double	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

REB7.5UNDER29%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%+14.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA22.5UNDER24%gbt_praDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%+8.8% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS11.5UNDER34%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

P+A14UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

R+A9OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Jakob Poeltl

Rebounds OVER 7.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest angle because his season average is 7.6, his last 5 is 8.6, and his 11-game history vs this opponent is 7.9 rebounds. Zubac being out strengthens the rebound case, but the questionable back status keeps it from being a high-confidence play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Isaiah Jackson	1	3	0	0%	0%
Brook Lopez	1	3	6	50%	63%
Kawhi Leonard	1	1	4	33%	33%
Darius Garland	1	0	2	50%	50%
Kris Dunn	1	0	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 10.559%MEDIUM

His season mean is 10.4 and last 5 is 13.4, so 10.5 is a reachable number if he plays normal minutes. The questionable back tag and downtrend keep this from being a strong OVER.

reboundsOVER 7.563%MEDIUM

He averages 7.6 rebounds for the season, 8.6 over the last 5, and 7.9 in 11 games vs this opponent. With Ivica Zubac out, the rebounding path improves, though injury risk still caps confidence.

assistsOVER 255%MEDIUM

Poeltl is at 2.1 assists season-long and 2.3 over the last 10, making 2.0 a modest target. His volatility is high given a 1.81 season standard deviation, so this is only a slight lean.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.54 stocks on the season and 2.1 over the last 10, which supports a small edge over 1.5. The variance is meaningful, so confidence stays moderate.

turnoversOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 turnovers on the last 20 and 1.3 at home, but his passing load can push him over this number when minutes are healthy. This is a thin lean because of his injury uncertainty.

praOVER 20.554%MEDIUM

His season baseline of 10.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists puts him near 20.1 PRA before any recent form adjustment. Because combo props are higher variance and his back issue is a concern, confidence remains low-to-medium.

prOVER 1856%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds average is 18.0, and recent form has been stronger at 22.0 over the last 5. The injury tag prevents a higher rating.

double_doubleOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He has enough points-and-rebounds production to be in double-double range when minutes are there, especially with Zubac out. Still, the back injury makes this a fragile bet.

timelineOVER 10.5 PTS