AI Model:

John Collins▲

LAC · PF

PPG

13.7

RPG

5.3

APG

1.0

L5 PPG

13.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.7

13.7

13.0

RPG+0.7

5.3

6.0

APG+0.4

1.0

1.4

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG0.0

0.8

OVER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

HOU

2026-02-10

2026-02-10 vs HOU: 17 pts

HOU

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs HOU: 12 pts

DEN

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs DEN: 11 pts

LAL

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs LAL: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NOP: 15 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 10 pts

SAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs SAS: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 18 pts

NOP

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs NOP: 18 pts

DAL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs DAL: 8 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 12.5STAKE

58%

REB

OVER 4.5STAKE

64%

AST

OVER 0.5STAKE

71%

3PM

OVER 1

54%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

60%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

57%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

62%

UNDER 1.5

67%

P+R

UNDER 16.5STAKE

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.1

15.5

RPG

7.1

5.0

APG

1.7

1.1

vs TOR (H2H)9 games

PPG

11.9

RPG

7.4

APG

1.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	13	50%	-22.1%	medium
Royce O'Neale	4	10	63%	-13.7%	medium
Miles Bridges	2	10	20%	-35.4%	low
Dominick Barlow	2	10	80%

Collins in a usage boost spot, but the scoring number is still tight

John Collins has been steady overall, with season marks of 13.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 1.0 APG, while his last 10 show a similar 13.2 PPG and a rebound uptick to 6.4 RPG. The teammate absences of Bradley Beal and Ivica Zubac matter a lot: missing 30.2 MPG and 10.4 RPG from Zubac should keep Collins involved on the glass and around the rim. Still, his last 5 points average is 13.0 and his head-to-head vs Toronto is only 11.9 PPG across 9 games, so the scoring side is not a strong over profile. With the game at home, his home rebounding split of 7.1 RPG is the clearest positive angle.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.0(↓ from 13.7)

RPG

6.0(↑ from 5.3)

APG

1.4(↑ from 1.0)

Stocks

1.8(↑ from 1.7)

Key Matchup

Toronto’s opponent defense context shows a 112.3 defensive rating, pace of 100, scoring_suppression of -0.703, and three_suppression of -0.58. No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders is needed here, and the stronger angle is the general defensive environment plus the absence of Ivica Zubac for Collins' interior work.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
John Collins▼	Points	12.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	0	✗
John Collins▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	5	✓
John Collins▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	71%HIGH	2/2	70%	0	✗
John Collins▼	3PM	1	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	10%	0	✗
John Collins▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
John Collins▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
John Collins▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✗
John Collins▼	Turnovers	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
John Collins▼	P+R	16.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	5	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS11.5OVER35%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)OVER 4x14/2070%+19.5% edge▼

REB5.5OVER10%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)13/2065%+15.5% edge▼

PRA24UNDER36%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA3UNDER33%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 7x8/2040%▼

P+R20.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 4x12/2060%▼

P+A15.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

AST1OVER12%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%▼

3PA2.5UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM1UNDER15%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PM1UNDER39%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)5/2025%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

John Collins

Rebounds OVER 4.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest prop on the board because his season 5.3 RPG, last 20 of 5.8 RPG, and home split of 7.1 RPG all clear the line. The absence of Ivica Zubac adds support to his rebounding outlook, making this more stable than his points over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Scottie Barnes	1	4	0	0%	0%
Brandon Ingram	1	2	5	67%	83%
Collin Murray-Boyles	1	1	0	0%	0%
Sandro Mamukelashvili	1	1	5	100%	125%
RJ Barrett	1	1	2	100%	100%

pointsOVER 12.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 13.7 PPG and his last 10 are 13.2 PPG, both above 12.5. But with only 11.9 PPG in 9 games vs Toronto and recent scoring volatility, this is not a strong edge.

reboundsOVER 4.564%MEDIUM

He averages 5.3 RPG on the season and 5.8 RPG over the last 20, plus 7.1 RPG at home. Zubac being out removes a strong rebounding presence, which supports Collins' board chances.

assistsOVER 0.571%HIGH

A 0.5 line is far below both his 1.0 season APG and 1.4 APG over the last 5. Even with low assist volume overall, this threshold is well under his normal range.

threesOVER 154%MEDIUM

He averages 1.34 made threes per game on the season and 1.2 at home, with 1.4 over the last 20. Recent form is lighter at 0.8 over the last 5, so this is playable but not strong.

stealsOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low bar. The overall stock production also supports peripheral upside.

blocksOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 blocks per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5. That makes 0.5 a modest threshold, though his block rate does carry some variance.

stocksOVER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season stock average is 1.67 and last 5 is 1.8, both above 1.5. With both steals and blocks contributing, this combo fits his profile better than the pure scoring props.

turnoversUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

He is at 1.3 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.4 over the last 5, so staying under 1.5 is slightly more likely. His role does not point to high ball-handling volume.

prUNDER 16.555%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds total is 19.0, but the recent scoring dip and the 11.9 PPG vs Toronto history make this combo less secure than the raw season average suggests. Combo props carry extra variance, so confidence stays moderate.

timelineOVER 12.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Collins in a usage boost spot, but the scoring number is still tight

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

OVER 12.5 PTS