Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 3 | 13 | 50% | -22.1% | medium |
| Royce O'Neale | 4 | 10 | 63% | -13.7% | medium |
| Miles Bridges | 2 | 10 | 20% | -35.4% | low |
| Dominick Barlow | 2 | 10 | 80% |
John Collins has been steady overall, with season marks of 13.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 1.0 APG, while his last 10 show a similar 13.2 PPG and a rebound uptick to 6.4 RPG. The teammate absences of Bradley Beal and Ivica Zubac matter a lot: missing 30.2 MPG and 10.4 RPG from Zubac should keep Collins involved on the glass and around the rim. Still, his last 5 points average is 13.0 and his head-to-head vs Toronto is only 11.9 PPG across 9 games, so the scoring side is not a strong over profile. With the game at home, his home rebounding split of 7.1 RPG is the clearest positive angle.
Toronto’s opponent defense context shows a 112.3 defensive rating, pace of 100, scoring_suppression of -0.703, and three_suppression of -0.58. No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders is needed here, and the stronger angle is the general defensive environment plus the absence of Ivica Zubac for Collins' interior work.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Collins▼ | Points | 12.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 0 | ✗ |
John Collins▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | OVER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 5 | ✓ |
John Collins▼ | Assists | 0.5 | OVER | 71%HIGH | 2/2 | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
John Collins▼ | 3PM | 1 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 10% | 0 | ✗ |
John Collins▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
John Collins▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 0 | ✗ |
John Collins▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 62%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 1 | ✗ |
John Collins▼ | Turnovers | 1.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
John Collins▼ | P+R | 16.5 | UNDER | 55%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 30% | 5 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest prop on the board because his season 5.3 RPG, last 20 of 5.8 RPG, and home split of 7.1 RPG all clear the line. The absence of Ivica Zubac adds support to his rebounding outlook, making this more stable than his points over.
| low |
| Naji Marshall | 2 | 9 | 50% | -12.5% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Barnes | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Brandon Ingram | 1 | 2 | 5 | 67% | 83% |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 1 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 125% |
| RJ Barrett | 1 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
His season average is 13.7 PPG and his last 10 are 13.2 PPG, both above 12.5. But with only 11.9 PPG in 9 games vs Toronto and recent scoring volatility, this is not a strong edge.
He averages 5.3 RPG on the season and 5.8 RPG over the last 20, plus 7.1 RPG at home. Zubac being out removes a strong rebounding presence, which supports Collins' board chances.
A 0.5 line is far below both his 1.0 season APG and 1.4 APG over the last 5. Even with low assist volume overall, this threshold is well under his normal range.
He averages 1.34 made threes per game on the season and 1.2 at home, with 1.4 over the last 20. Recent form is lighter at 0.8 over the last 5, so this is playable but not strong.
He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low bar. The overall stock production also supports peripheral upside.
He averages 0.8 blocks per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5. That makes 0.5 a modest threshold, though his block rate does carry some variance.
His season stock average is 1.67 and last 5 is 1.8, both above 1.5. With both steals and blocks contributing, this combo fits his profile better than the pure scoring props.
He is at 1.3 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.4 over the last 5, so staying under 1.5 is slightly more likely. His role does not point to high ball-handling volume.
His season points plus rebounds total is 19.0, but the recent scoring dip and the 11.9 PPG vs Toronto history make this combo less secure than the raw season average suggests. Combo props carry extra variance, so confidence stays moderate.