AI Model:

Kawhi Leonard—

LAC · SG

PPG

28.4

RPG

6.3

APG

3.6

L5 PPG

29.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.8

28.4

29.2

RPG-1.1

6.3

5.2

APG-1.2

3.6

2.4

SPG0.0

2.0

BPG-0.1

0.5

0.4

UNDER 27.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

27.5

IND

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs IND: 29 pts

SAS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs SAS: 30 pts

MEM

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MEM: 28 pts

NYK

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs NYK: 29 pts

MIN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs MIN: 45 pts

CHI

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CHI: 28 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 31 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 25 pts

DAL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs DAL: 34 pts

MIL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs MIL: 28 pts

Over 27.5

Under 27.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 27.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

AST

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

STL

OVER 1.5

68%

BLK

OVER 0.5

51%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

56%

OVER 2

54%

P+R

OVER 28.5STAKE

55%

P+A

OVER 26.5STAKE

53%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

29.8

29.4

RPG

5.7

7.4

APG

3.7

3.6

vs TOR (H2H)7 games

PPG

18.7

RPG

6.4

APG

5.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaden McDaniels	3	18	67%	+16.2%	medium
Kevin Durant	3	14	31%	-25.5%	medium
Toumani Camara	3	13	50%	-14.1%	medium
Stephon Castle	2	13	63%

Kawhi’s scoring stays elite, but the matchup and line set up a cautious under lean

Kawhi Leonard is producing at a high level with 28.4 PPG on the season and 30.7 PPG over his last 10, while also averaging 2.0 SPG and 0.5 BPG. The market has him around 27.5 to 28.5 points, but his vs-opponent history is much lower at 18.7 PPG across 7 games, and the opponent’s scoring suppression profile points to a tougher scoring environment. His last 5 are still strong at 29.2 PPG, but that run is above the season baseline and comes with a questionable injury tag, so the safer read is a slight pull toward the under on points and a modest lean to his auxiliary stats. The teammate absences help keep usage intact, but the current pricing already reflects a strong offensive role.

Stat Trends

PPG

29.2(↑ from 28.4)

RPG

5.2(↓ from 6.3)

APG

2.4(↓ from 3.6)

SPG

2.0(→ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the provided key defenders, and the opponent defensive profile shows a 112.3 defensive rating with -0.703 scoring suppression. Kawhi’s historical output vs this opponent is only 18.7 PPG across 7 games, which is the clearest matchup-based caution signal.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Kawhi Leonard▼	Points	27.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	10%	FLIP	27	✓
Kawhi Leonard▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	FLIP	6	✓
Kawhi Leonard▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	FLIP	2	✗
Kawhi Leonard▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		2	✗
Kawhi Leonard▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	80%		0	✗
Kawhi Leonard▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	—	20%		1	✓
Kawhi Leonard▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	70%		1	✓
Kawhi Leonard▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	20%		3	✓
Kawhi Leonard▼	P+R	28.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	100%		33	✓
Kawhi Leonard▼	P+A	26.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	1/2	90%		29	✓

ML Scout Analysis

AST3.5OVER8%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

PTS28.5UNDER3%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 7x8/2040%+9.3% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

REB6.5UNDER21%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%+5.3% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA41.5UNDER23%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 7x5/2025%+17.5% edge▼

P+R34.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

P+A32UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 7x6/2030%▼

3PM2.5UNDER1%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

STL1.5UNDER31%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)12/2060%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Kawhi Leonard

Points UNDER 27.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the season average is 28.4, but his vs-opponent scoring drops sharply to 18.7 PPG in 7 games. The injury/questionable tag and the opponent’s scoring suppression make the under the most defensible play, even with his strong recent form.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
RJ Barrett	1	5	2	14%	14%
Scottie Barnes	1	2	4	50%	50%
Collin Murray-Boyles	1	1	2	100%	100%
Jamison Battle	1	1	0	0%	0%
Brandon Ingram	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 27.566%MEDIUM

He averages 28.4 PPG on the season, but the better indicator for this matchup is his 18.7 PPG in 7 games vs this opponent. With the market at 27.5 and his questionable ankle status, the under is the more conservative side.

reboundsUNDER 6.557%MEDIUM

Kawhi is at 6.3 RPG for the season and 6.0 RPG over the last 10, which is slightly below this number. His recent rebounding has not shown a strong enough edge to trust an over at 6.5.

assistsOVER 3.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.6 APG on the season and 3.2 APG over the last 10, so 3.5 is right in range. The teammate absences keep his playmaking workload relevant even though recent variance is present.

threesOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

He averages 2.65 threes made per game on the season and 2.8 over the last 10, both above 2.5. The recent trend is solid, though this is still a moderate-confidence play because the edge is not huge.

stealsOVER 1.568%MEDIUM

Kawhi averages 2.0 SPG on the season and 2.0 over the last 5, making 1.5 a meaningful but manageable threshold. This is one of his most stable counting stats and fits his strong recent stocks production.

blocksOVER 0.551%MEDIUM

He averages 0.5 BPG on the season, so this is essentially a coin-flip line. Recent blocks are softer at 0.4 over the last 5 and 0.2 over the last 10, so confidence stays low.

stocksUNDER 2.556%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.47 and the last 10 is 2.2, which sits just below 2.5. Since variance is meaningful, the under is the safer side if this number is posted at 2.5.

turnoversOVER 254%MEDIUM

He is at 2.0 turnovers over the last 5 and 2.1 over the last 20, which makes this a live over if the line is 2.0. The recent workload and usage have kept turnover risk in play.

prOVER 28.555%MEDIUM

He averages 28.42 points plus 6.29 rebounds for a season PRA-style floor that supports a line like 28.5 on points-rebounds alone. That said, this is a combo prop and should be treated conservatively because variance is higher.

paOVER 26.553%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is 32.0 combined using 28.4 PPG and 3.6 APG, which clears 26.5 by a good margin. The recent assist dip keeps confidence moderate rather than strong.

timelineUNDER 27.5 PTS