AI Model:

Bilal Coulibaly▼

WAS · SF

PPG

11.3

RPG

4.4

APG

2.7

L5 PPG

19.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+7.9

11.3

19.2

RPG+0.8

4.4

5.2

APG+0.5

2.7

3.2

SPG0.0

1.4

BPG+0.4

1.0

1.4

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

15.5

HOU

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs HOU: 23 pts

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 6 pts

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 17 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 5 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 10 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 29 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 12 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 21 pts

OKC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs OKC: 21 pts

NYK

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs NYK: 13 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

OVER 2.5STAKE

55%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

66%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

64%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

58%

OVER 1.5

57%

P+R

UNDER 14.5STAKE

60%

P+A

UNDER 11.5STAKE

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.8

11.7

RPG

3.6

4.6

APG

2.6

3.0

vs UTA (H2H)4 games

PPG

9.3

RPG

3.3

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Giannis Antetokounmpo	2	16	56%	+14.0%	low
Paolo Banchero	4	15	46%	+0.1%	medium
Anthony Edwards	2	13	58%	+8.4%	low
Tyrese Maxey	3	13	25%

Coulibaly’s minutes are secure, but the market is still pricing him above his season baseline

Bilal Coulibaly is trending hotter than his season line, with 19.2 PPG over his last 5 and 30.1 MPG over his last 10, but that spike sits well above his 11.3 season PPG and 26.9 MPG. The Wizards are also missing Alex Sarr, Cam Whitmore, Kyshawn George, and Tre Johnson, which supports Coulibaly’s usage and playing time, yet his recent output has been volatile and the matchup history vs Utah is only 9.25 PPG across 4 games. Utah’s defense profile is still not soft enough to ignore, so the safest angle remains leaning under on inflated scoring and combo lines while respecting his strong stock production.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.2(↑ from 11.3)

RPG

5.2(↑ from 4.4)

APG

3.2(↑ from 2.7)

Stocks

2.8(↑ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. Utah’s team defense numbers show a 125.06 defensive rating, 100 pace, 2.166 scoring suppression, and 1.403 three suppression, while Coulibaly has only 9.25 PPG in 4 games vs this opponent.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP	11	✓
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		2	✗
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		3	✓
Bilal Coulibaly▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		0	✗
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		3	✗
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		0	✗
Bilal Coulibaly▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%	FLIP	3	✗
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	FLIP	2	✓
Bilal Coulibaly▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	FLIP	13	✓
Bilal Coulibaly▼	P+A	11.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	FLIP	14	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS12.5OVER3%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

PRA20.5OVER7%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed -0.069▼

REB4.5UNDER23%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST2.5OVER10%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.101; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

P+R18UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+A16.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

BLK0.5OVER21%gbt_blocksDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

3PM1.5UNDER13%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Bilal Coulibaly

Points UNDER 15.5MEDIUM

His season scoring baseline is 11.3 PPG, and the best historical indicator here is his 9.25 PPG average in 4 games against Utah. The last 5 surge to 19.2 PPG is a big jump from season form, so the market looks too aggressive and the under has the cleanest edge profile.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cody Williams	2	7	8	75%	75%
Ace Bailey	2	3	6	33%	50%
John Konchar	2	2	0	0%	0%
Elijah Harkless	2	2	0	0%	0%
Blake Hinson	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 15.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.3 PPG and his vs-opponent average is 9.25 PPG across 4 games, which is below this inflated line. The last 5 at 19.2 PPG is a clear spike, but that is well above season form and carries regression risk.

reboundsOVER 4.556%MEDIUM

He averages 4.4 RPG for the season and 4.6 RPG over the last 10, with 4.6 RPG in away games and 5.2 RPG over the last 5. The line is tight, but the extra minutes from teammate absences support a small lean over.

assistsOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

Coulibaly’s season mean is 2.65 APG and his last 10 is 2.9 APG, both above this line. That said, the recent sample is volatile and the under at 3.5 is the stronger value side in the market data, so confidence stays moderate.

threesOVER 1.559%MEDIUM

He averages 1.16 threes per game on the season and 2.1 over the last 10, with 2.1 in home games as well. The recent attempt volume is strong enough to back an over, though the season baseline keeps confidence in check.

stealsUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

Even with 1.4 SPG on the season, this line is high and his recent numbers do not fully support consistent 2-plus steal outcomes. The last 5 shows 1.4 SPG, which is solid but not enough to justify the over at this price.

blocksOVER 0.564%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 1.0 BPG on the season and 1.4 over the last 5, so a 0.5 line is modest relative to his shot-blocking role. Recent form supports clearing this number even with normal variance.

stocksUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.35 and the last 10 is 2.1, both below a 2.5 threshold. Because stocks props are inherently volatile, this is only a mild under, but the baseline still points that way.

turnoversOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He is at 1.6 turnovers over the last 10 and 2.0 over the last 5, which suggests elevated ball-handling responsibility. With more minutes and usage from teammate absences, turnovers should remain live.

prUNDER 14.560%MEDIUM

His season averages of 11.3 points and 4.4 rebounds sum to 15.7 PR, but the market line is already shaded up and his vs-opponent scoring history is weaker at 9.25 PPG. Combo props add variance, so the under is the safer side.

paUNDER 11.563%MEDIUM

He averages 14.0 points plus assists on the season, but the recent assist production is only 2.7 season and 2.9 last 10, so this line depends heavily on scoring staying elevated. Given the regression risk in points, the under is the more cautious play.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS