Brice Sensabaugh—

UTA · SG

PPG

14.5

RPG

3.1

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

29.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+14.9

14.5

29.4

RPG+0.9

3.1

4.0

APG+0.3

1.7

2.0

SPG+0.5

0.7

1.2

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

15.5

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 8 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 7 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 14 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 17 pts

GSW

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs GSW: 21 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 29 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 31 pts

SAC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs SAC: 22 pts

MIN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MIN: 41 pts

TOR

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs TOR: 24 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5STAKE

63%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

58%

AST

OVER 1.5STAKE

57%

3PM

OVER 2.08

60%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

55%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

56%

OVER 2

61%

PRA

OVER 19.5STAKE

52%

P+A

UNDER 17.5STAKE

54%

R+A

UNDER 5.5STAKE

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.9

18.6

RPG

3.5

3.1

APG

1.8

2.2

vs WAS (H2H)4 games

PPG

13.3

RPG

1.8

APG

2.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Naji Marshall	4	10	100%	+39.1%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	8	80%	+13.4%	medium
Christian Braun	3	7	60%	+13.4%	medium
Kris Dunn	3	7	0%

Sensabaugh’s usage is elevated, but the scoring line is now priced for a hot streak

Brice Sensabaugh is averaging 14.5 PPG on the season, but his last 5 games have exploded to 29.4 PPG with 30.0 MPG, showing a major usage spike. The matchup environment is favorable overall with Washington missing multiple rotation pieces, but his prior four games vs this opponent sit at just 13.25 PPG and 24.5 MPG. Given the heavy recent surge and the fact that his points line is already 15.5, the market appears to be catching up to the run.

Stat Trends

PPG

29.4(↑ from 14.5)

RPG

4.0(↑ from 3.1)

APG

2.0(→ from 1.7)

3PM

2.9(↑ from 2.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and their minute samples are extremely small. Washington’s defense has a 124.36 defensive rating and 100 pace, with 2.008 scoring suppression and 0.777 three suppression, while multiple opponent absences reduce overall resistance.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	30%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	3PM	2.08	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	80%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	70%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	50%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	PRA	19.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	P+A	17.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	20%
Brice Sensabaugh▼	R+A	5.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS23.5UNDER18%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%+9.0% edge▼

PRA32.5UNDER31%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)5/2025%+21.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB4.5UNDER43%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x4/2020%+27.0% edgeConfidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

AST3.5UNDER12%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x7/2035%+8.5% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.230▼

3PM3.5UNDER14%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%+11.3% edge▼

P+R24.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

P+A24UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Brice Sensabaugh

Assists OVER 1.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest way to play his expanded role without paying for the full scoring spike. He averages 1.7 APG on the season and 2.0 APG over the last 5, and with Isaiah Collier and Keyonte George both out, the passing workload should stay elevated.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Anthony Gill	1	2	0	0%	0%
Leaky Black	1	2	0	0%	0%
Julian Reese	1	2	4	100%	100%
Will Riley	1	1	0	0%	0%
Bilal Coulibaly	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 15.563%MEDIUM

His season average is 14.5 PPG and his vs-opponent average is 13.25 PPG across 4 games, which is below this number. The last-5 surge to 29.4 PPG is well above season baseline, so regression risk is high.

reboundsUNDER 3.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.1 RPG for the season and 3.3 RPG over the last 5, both near but still below 3.5. His rebounding profile is relatively low-variance for a guard, but the line is slightly inflated.

assistsOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

Season average is 1.7 APG and last-5 is 2.0 APG, both above the 1.5 line. With Isaiah Collier out and Keyonte George out, his on-ball opportunities should remain elevated.

threesOVER 2.0860%MEDIUM

He averages 2.08 threes per game on the season and 2.9 over the last 5, with 2.8 over the last 20. The volume support is strong enough to lean over even with some regression risk.

stealsOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 SPG on the season and 1.2 over the last 5, which clears a 0.5 line. The sample is volatile, but his recent defensive production supports the over.

stocksUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.86 and last-10 is 1.3, both below 1.5. This is a high-variance combo relative to his baseline, so the under is the safer side.

turnoversOVER 261%MEDIUM

He is at 2.1 TOs over the last 20, 2.8 over the last 10, and 4.0 over the last 5. With usage up and more creation responsibilities, turnovers are trending above a 2.0 line.

praOVER 19.552%MEDIUM

His recent production has far exceeded this line, and the absences around him keep his role elevated. Still, PRA props have lower hit rates and his rebound/assist base is modest, so confidence stays moderate.

paUNDER 17.554%MEDIUM

He averages just 14.5 points and 1.7 assists on the season, which leaves this combo dependent on another scoring spike. The recent scoring burst is strong, but this line already bakes in a lot of it.

raUNDER 5.560%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists is only 4.8, and even the last-5 mark is 6.0. This is close, but the season baseline is still below the line and combo volatility is a concern.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS