AI Model:

Cody Williams▼

UTA · SG

PPG

7.3

RPG

2.7

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

19.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+12.3

7.3

19.6

RPG+1.7

2.7

4.4

APG+2.5

1.5

4.0

SPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

OVER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

8.5

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 9 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 13 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 13 pts

GSW

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs GSW: 12 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 10 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 19 pts

SAC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs SAC: 34 pts

MIN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MIN: 7 pts

MIL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIL: 23 pts

PHI

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs PHI: 15 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 8.5STAKE

58%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

63%

AST

OVER 1.5STAKE

66%

3PM

OVER 0.5

52%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

60%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

57%

OVER 2

55%

P+R

UNDER 12.5STAKE

56%

P+A

OVER 10.5STAKE

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.1

9.9

RPG

2.3

5.0

APG

3.2

2.5

vs WAS (H2H)3 games

PPG

9.0

RPG

2.3

APG

3.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	3	11	69%	+15.2%	medium
Jamal Murray	3	10	78%	+8.3%	medium
Stephon Castle	3	8	45%	-7.3%	medium
Kevin Durant	2	8	50%

Expanded role at home keeps Cody Williams in play, but scoring regression is a real risk

Cody Williams is coming off a strong recent stretch with 19.6 PPG over his last 5 and 15.5 PPG over his last 10, but that sits well above his 7.3 season average and his trend is marked down. He’s also logging a much larger role lately at 32.2 MPG over the last 5 and 34.3 MPG over the last 10, which is especially important with Isaiah Collier and Keyonte George both out. The matchup environment is favorable for production, but his season-level scoring baseline and volatile efficiency make the points market less trustworthy than the usage-driven assist and combo looks.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.6(↑ from 7.3)

RPG

4.4(↑ from 2.7)

APG

4.0(↑ from 1.5)

Stocks

1.0(→ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

The opponent data shows Washington allowing a 124.36 defensive rating with a pace of 100, which supports offensive opportunity. Cody Williams also faced Washington once recently and posted 13 points, 3 assists, and 3 turnovers on March 5, while the listed key defenders provide no specific defender matchup data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Cody Williams▼	Points	8.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	24	✓
Cody Williams▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	4	✓
Cody Williams▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	100%	1	✗
Cody Williams▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✗
Cody Williams▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✓
Cody Williams▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✗
Cody Williams▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%	3	✗
Cody Williams▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%	4	✓
Cody Williams▼	P+R	12.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	28	✗
Cody Williams▼	P+A	10.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	25	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS16.5UNDER18%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)7/2035%+12.8% edge▼

AST3.5OVER30%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

PRA26.5UNDER9%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)7/2035%+10.9% edge▼

R+A8OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

P+R18.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

P+A18.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

REB4.5OVER14%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.459; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

Featured Pick

Cody Williams

Assists OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest role-based play because his season average is 1.54, but the recent context is much stronger at 4.0 APG over the last 5 and 4.4 over the last 10. With Isaiah Collier and Keyonte George both out, his ball-handling and creation load should stay elevated, making the low line easier to clear than his scoring props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Bilal Coulibaly	2	4	4	40%	40%
Leaky Black	2	4	3	50%	75%
Jamir Watkins	1	4	5	50%	63%
Will Riley	2	3	2	25%	25%
Jaden Hardy	2	3	4	33%	33%

pointsOVER 8.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is only 7.3, but the recent role jump to 34.3 MPG and 19.6 PPG over the last 5 supports a modest over lean. The risk is regression, since last-5 scoring is far above the season baseline and the trend is listed as down.

reboundsUNDER 4.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.7 rebounds on the season and 2.3 at home, well below this number. Recent rebounds are up at 4.4 over the last 5, but that is still a small sample and the season baseline favors the under.

assistsOVER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.54 and the recent minutes spike has pushed him to 4.0 APG over the last 5 and 4.4 over the last 10. The teammate absences from Isaiah Collier and Keyonte George make the assist over more viable than most of his other props.

threesOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He averages 0.43 threes on the season but 0.9 over the last 5, so this is a low-volume, moderate-variance look. The season average is below the line, so this is only a slight over lean.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 steals on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, which clears the 0.5 line. This is still volatile, so confidence stays modest.

blocksUNDER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages just 0.4 blocks on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. With the line at 0.5, the season profile leans under.

stocksUNDER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.09 and recent is 1.0 to 1.2, both below a typical 1.5 threshold. This is a tougher combo line to clear given the limited block production.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

He has 2.2 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 2.0 over the last 10, with a higher-usage role driving mistakes. The current assist bump comes with turnover risk.

prUNDER 12.556%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 10.0, and even with recent uptick he is still not a high-volume scorer/rebounder by season standards. Combo volatility makes this line dangerous to chase over.

paOVER 10.562%MEDIUM

His recent scoring and assist surge pushes this combination into range, especially with 34.3 MPG over the last 10. The main support is role-driven usage rather than stable season production.

timelineOVER 8.5 PTS