AI Model:

John Konchar▲

UTA · SF

PPG

3.6

RPG

3.5

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

7.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.4

3.6

7.0

RPG+1.7

3.5

5.2

APG-0.1

1.5

1.4

SPG-0.3

1.3

1.0

BPG0.0

0.6

UNDER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

7.5

NOP

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs NOP: 4 pts

NOP

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs NOP: 3 pts

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 6 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 0 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 0 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 2 pts

GSW

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs GSW: 2 pts

MIN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MIN: 3 pts

PHI

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs PHI: 9 pts

TOR

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs TOR: 19 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

88%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

76%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

3PM

UNDER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

STL

UNDER 1.5

70%

BLK

OVER 0.5

73%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

71%

OVER 1

64%

R+A

UNDER 8

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.7

2.9

RPG

4.5

3.9

APG

1.5

2.2

vs WAS (H2H)9 games

PPG

3.9

RPG

6.6

APG

2.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Reed Sheppard	3	7	69%	+3.1%	medium
Jeremiah Fears	6	6	42%	-8.4%	medium
Julian Reese	2	6	83%	+36.4%	low
Nikola Jokić	2	6	80%

Rotation minutes up, but scoring remains capped

John Konchar’s recent role has ticked up, with his last 5 averaging 24.0 MPG compared to 17.6 MPG for the season, and that has lifted his all-around production. Still, his season scoring baseline is only 3.6 PPG, and the value market is clearly leaning to the under on points and assists despite the expanded run. Home splits are better than away, but his recent scoring is volatile, so the safer angle is to fade the inflated short-term spike and trust the season profile more heavily.

Stat Trends

PPG

7.0(↑ from 3.6)

RPG

5.2(↑ from 3.5)

APG

1.4(→ from 1.5)

Stocks

1.6(→ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data for this player beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data. The opponent is allowing a 124.36 defensive rating with a 100 pace, but the opponent also has multiple listed absences, which can create some volatility in role and efficiency.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
John Konchar▼	Points	7.5	UNDER	88%HIGH	1/2	80%	3.5→7.5	8	✗
John Konchar▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	2/2	90%	FLIP	14	✗
John Konchar▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	2/2	70%	1.5→2.5	5	✗
John Konchar▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	70%		0	✓
John Konchar▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	60%	FLIP	1	✓
John Konchar▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	73%HIGH	—	70%		3	✓
John Konchar▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	71%HIGH	—	30%	1.5→2.5	4	✓
John Konchar▼	Turnovers	1	OVER	64%MEDIUM	—	30%	FLIP	0	✗
John Konchar▼	R+A	8	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	—	19	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R11.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

P+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

R+A8UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

John Konchar

Points UNDER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data: season scoring is 3.57 PPG, last 10 is 4.8, and the value props show the UNDER as the best side across books at 7.5. Even with a recent minutes bump to 24.0 MPG and a 7.0 PPG last-5 spike, that run is well above his season baseline and looks prone to regression.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Julian Reese	2	6	11	83%	83%
Leaky Black	2	4	5	67%	83%
Anthony Gill	2	3	4	100%	100%
Bilal Coulibaly	2	3	6	60%	60%
Will Riley	2	3	12	80%	100%

pointsUNDER 7.588%HIGH

Season mean is 3.57 PPG versus 7.0 in the last 5, and the value data shows the UNDER as the best side at this line. His scoring variance is high, but the season baseline and market pricing both point to under 7.5.

reboundsUNDER 5.576%HIGH

He averages 3.46 RPG for the season and 4.2 in the last 10, still below this number. The recent bump is not enough to justify an OVER given the season profile and modest rebound mean.

assistsUNDER 2.582%HIGH

His season mean is 1.52 APG and the recent mean is 1.6, both well below 2.5. Even with teammate absences, the data still supports a lower-probability assist ceiling than the line implies.

threesUNDER 0.568%MEDIUM

He averages just 0.43 threes per game on the season, with only 0.6 in the last 5. The line is close, but season volume and efficiency are weak enough to favor the under.

stealsUNDER 1.570%HIGH

He averages 1.3 steals on the season, but the standard deviation is large and the recent window is only 1.0. For a volatile defensive stat, the safer lean is under 1.5.

blocksOVER 0.573%HIGH

He averages 0.6 blocks per game on the season and 0.6 over the last 5, which is enough to support an OVER at a 0.5 line. His defensive event rate is more stable than his scoring.

stocksOVER 2.571%HIGH

He averages 1.89 stocks on the season and 2.7 over the last 10, with strong recent defensive production. The combo is volatile, but his recent blocks plus steals have cleared this range often enough to lean over.

turnoversOVER 164%MEDIUM

His season turnover average is 0.9, but the last 10 sit at 0.9 as well and recent minutes have risen to 24.0 MPG. This is a low-confidence over only because the role increase can create a few more miscues.

raUNDER 866%MEDIUM

Using season averages, his rebounds plus assists project to 4.96, well short of 8.0. Combo props are higher variance, so the under is still the more conservative side.

timelineUNDER 7.5 PTS