AI Model:

Tristan Vukcevic—

WAS · C

PPG

8.7

RPG

3.0

APG

1.1

L5 PPG

12.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.3

8.7

12.0

RPG+0.6

3.0

3.6

APG-0.3

1.1

0.8

SPG-0.4

0.4

0.0

BPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

OVER 8.7 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

8.7

ATL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs ATL: 11 pts

TOR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs TOR: 13 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 3 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 11 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 22 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 11 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 9 pts

DET

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs DET: 21 pts

OKC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs OKC: 6 pts

NYK

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs NYK: 13 pts

Over 8.7

Under 8.7

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 8.7

62%

REB

OVER 3

56%

AST

OVER 1

51%

3PM

OVER 1

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5

54%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1

61%

OVER 2

55%

PRA

OVER 13

49%

P+A

OVER 10

48%

UNDER 0.5

72%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.8

9.9

RPG

4.7

3.0

APG

1.4

1.3

vs UTA (H2H)2 games

PPG

12.5

RPG

6.0

APG

0.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Onyeka Okongwu	3	10	30%	-17.9%	medium
Jay Huff	4	9	95%	+32.1%	medium
Paul Reed	3	7	60%	+12.1%	medium
Jakob Poeltl	2	6	100%

Expanded role gives Vukcevic a scoring ceiling, but volume volatility keeps the board mixed

Tristan Vukcevic has been more productive recently, posting 12.0 PPG over his last 5 and 12.0 PPG over his last 10 compared with an 8.7 season average, while his minutes have risen to 17.1 in the last 10 from 13.5 on the season. The matchup is also friendlier on paper, with Utah allowing a 125.06 defensive rating and Washington’s injuries removing multiple high-minute teammates, especially Alex Sarr (27.1 MPG), Kyshawn George (28.8 MPG), and Tre Johnson (23.8 MPG). Still, his production is volatile, and the season baseline plus a 5.83 points standard deviation argue for caution on aggressive overs. The clearest path is points upside, while rebounds and combo props carry more variance.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.0(↑ from 8.7)

RPG

3.6(↑ from 3.0)

APG

0.8(↓ from 1.1)

3PM

1.8(↑ from 1.0)

Key Matchup

Utah’s defense profile is soft, with a 125.06 defensive rating and 100 pace, which supports scoring opportunity. Key defender data is limited to Oscar Tshiebwe with 6.3 minutes, so there is no specific defender matchup data that materially changes the projection.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Tristan Vukcevic▼	Points	8.7	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	80%
Tristan Vukcevic▼	Rebounds	3	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	40%
Tristan Vukcevic▼	Assists	1	OVER	51%MEDIUM	2/2	20%
Tristan Vukcevic▼	3PM	1	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Tristan Vukcevic▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%
Tristan Vukcevic▼	STL+BLK	1	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	100%
Tristan Vukcevic▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	10%
Tristan Vukcevic▼	PRA	13	OVER	49%LOW	1/2	80%
Tristan Vukcevic▼	P+A	10	OVER	48%LOW	2/2	70%
Tristan Vukcevic▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PRA18.5UNDER15%gbt_praStrong Leg (16/20)9/1850%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed +0.043; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

PTS11.5OVER12%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x11/1861%+5.2% edge▼

REB4.5UNDER33%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 4x6/1833%+7.0% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R17UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (14/20)6/1833%▼

3PM1.5UNDER12%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (13/20)10/1856%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Value edge shifted -0.253▼

R+A5.5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 4x8/1844%▼

P+A14OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x9/1850%▼

Featured Pick

Tristan Vukcevic

Points OVER 8.7MEDIUM

The combination of 12.0 PPG over both his last 5 and last 10, plus increased minutes and multiple Washington absences, points to a scoring role above his season baseline. His variance is high, so this is not a premium-confidence over, but it is the clearest angle among his props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

pointsOVER 8.762%MEDIUM

His season mean is 8.7, but recent scoring has been 12.0 over the last 5 and 12.0 over the last 10 with minutes up to 17.1. The injury absences on Washington should keep his role elevated, although the high season standard deviation of 5.83 keeps confidence moderate.

reboundsOVER 356%MEDIUM

He averages 3.0 rebounds on the season and 4.0 over the last 10, with 4.7 RPG at home and 6.0 RPG in two games vs Utah. The recent trend is better, but the sample and variance are still modest.

assistsOVER 151%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.13 assists and he has averaged 1.2 over the last 10, so this is close to the baseline. With a 1.03 season standard deviation, this is a low-confidence play.

threesOVER 158%MEDIUM

He averages 0.96 threes on the season and 2.1 over the last 10, with 1.7 at home and 1.05 at home by split. Recent shot volume is strong enough to justify a lean over at a modest line.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 blocks per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 20, which clears meaningful volume for this category. The floor is not high, but the baseline supports a slight over lean.

stocksUNDER 161%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.02, but the last 5 has been only 0.6 and the last 10 is also 0.6. That recent decline makes the under safer despite the home split being higher.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

He has averaged 1.8 turnovers over the last 10 and 2.0 over the last 5, with several recent games at 2 or more. Increased usage from teammate absences can push mistakes up as well.

praOVER 1349%LOW

His recent scoring and rebounding lift the combo, but PRA props are inherently high-variance and his assist profile is limited. With combo props historically less reliable, this stays below average confidence.

paOVER 1048%LOW

Points plus assists is driven mostly by scoring here, since assists sit at just 1.1 season and 1.2 over the last 10. The over is only marginally attractive because playmaking is not a strong part of his profile.

double_doubleUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He has one recent 11-rebound game, but his season averages of 8.7 points and 3.0 rebounds do not support consistent double-double production. The rebounding base is not strong enough for regular DD upside.

timelineOVER 8.7 PTS