AI Model:

Jake LaRavia▲

LAL · SF

PPG

8.4

RPG

3.8

APG

1.8

L5 PPG

4.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.8

8.4

4.6

RPG-0.6

3.8

3.2

APG-0.8

1.8

1.0

SPG0.0

1.2

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 6 pts

MIN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIN: 8 pts

CHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs CHI: 0 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 4 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 7 pts

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 5 pts

MIA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIA: 5 pts

ORL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ORL: 0 pts

DET

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs DET: 7 pts

IND

2026-03-25

2026-03-25 vs IND: 6 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5FANDUEL

90%

REB

OVER 3.5FANDUEL

85%

P+R

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

88%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.1

6.4

RPG

3.2

3.3

APG

1.7

1.1

vs BKN (H2H)8 games

PPG

8.0

RPG

5.0

APG

2.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kawhi Leonard	4	15	50%	-4.9%	medium
Kon Knueppel	2	10	100%	+20.9%	low
Trey Murphy III	3	9	88%	+29.2%	medium
Devin Vassell	3	8	30%

LaRavia's Scoring Drought at Half Makes Points Under a Priority

Jake LaRavia enters the second half with 0 points despite his starting role, continuing a downward scoring trend where he has averaged only 4.8 PPG over his last 10 games. While he is on pace for his rebounding prop with 2 boards at the break, the overall game pace is significantly slower than projected (96 total points at half). With a very high blowout probability and Coach Redick's tendency to pull starters early in such scenarios, LaRavia's ceiling for counting stats is severely capped.

Key Matchup

LaRavia is primarily matched up against Ziaire Williams, who is seeing expanded usage due to Michael Porter Jr. being Out (Left Hamstring).

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Jake LaRavia▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	90%HIGH	2/2	100%		0	✓
Jake LaRavia▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	85%HIGH	1/2	50%	FLIP	2	✗
Jake LaRavia▼	P+R	13.5	UNDER	88%HIGH	1/2	90%		2	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS11.5UNDER34%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)3/2015%+35.5% edge▼

REB5.5UNDER40%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)5/2025%+17.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R10UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

PRA19.5UNDER46%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)3/2015%+31.3% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

AST2.5UNDER69%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 12x4/2020%+26.3% edge▼

P+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

R+A5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Jake LaRavia

Points UNDER 9.5HIGH

LaRavia has 0 points at halftime and is averaging just 4.8 PPG over his last 10 games. With the game script projecting a blowout and a low total pace, he lacks the volume and efficiency to reach double digits in the second half.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ziaire Williams	2	3	2	100%	100%
Nolan Traore	2	2	0	0%	0%
Michael Porter Jr.	1	2	5	100%	100%
Nic Claxton	2	2	4	67%	67%
Egor Dëmin	1	2	3	100%	150%

pointsUNDER 9.590%HIGH

Coach Redick projects starters at 32.4 MPG, but the high blowout risk (15.5 spread) likely caps LaRavia at ~26 minutes. Team agent notes he is starting, yet he produced 0 points in the first half against a BKN defense that is missing key rim protection in Day'Ron Sharpe. Statistically, his last 10-game average of 4.8 PPG is well below this 9.5 line, and the current low-pace game script (96 total points at half) makes a 10-point second-half explosion highly unlikely.

reboundsOVER 3.585%HIGH

LaRavia has already recorded 2 rebounds at halftime, putting him 57% of the way to the over. His season average of 3.8 RPG and H2H history of 5.0 RPG against Brooklyn suggest he is comfortable on the glass in this matchup. Even if minutes are reduced in the 4th quarter due to the blowout script, he only needs 2 more rebounds in the second half to clear this line, which aligns with his recent trend of 3.5 RPG over the last 10 games.

prUNDER 13.588%HIGH

With only 2 total PR at halftime (0 PTS, 2 REB), LaRavia requires 12 more combined units to hit the over. The matchup agent highlights a low-scoring first half (52-44) and a high blowout risk that will likely see starters sit by the 8-minute mark of the 4th quarter. Given his season average of 8.4 PPG and 3.8 RPG (12.2 PR total), the 13.5 line is already inflated relative to his production, especially considering his recent 5-game average of only 7.8 PR.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS