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NightlyHoops/Predictions/2026-03-28
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NBA Slate

Saturday, March 28, 2026

6 games · 305 graded picks

Slate Result
53%
161-144
Board View
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Slate Read

v2 multi-agent analysis: 6 games with Team + Matchup + Player agents.

Game Board

Each matchup card shows the strongest props for that game first. Open a card for the full preview.

CHI@MEM
Board Readyscheduled

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No published props on this game yet.
Waiting on full boardShow More →
DET@MIN
Board Readyin_progress

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No published props on this game yet.
Waiting on full boardShow More →

Results & Analysis

52.8%161/305 picks hit
69 close calls
HIGH52%
110/211
MEDIUM54%
51/94
OVER47%
62/131
UNDER57%
99/174

Why Picks Missed

Close Calls (69)Narrowly missed (scaled by prop type)

-2.5Duncan RobinsonPRAOVER 16.5→14
+2.5Devin VassellPRAUNDER 18.5→21
+2.5Keldon JohnsonPRAUNDER 18.5→21
-1.5DeMar DeRozanAssistsOVER 4.5→3
-1.5Joel EmbiidAssistsOVER 3.5→2

Biggest Misses (14)Way off (scaled by prop type)

+24.5Jock LandalePRAUNDER 11.5 → 36

Played significantly more minutes than projected (likely full game or blowout minutes), resulting in a huge surge in points, rebounds, and assists combined, far surpassing the low minutes projection.

-12.5Collin GillespiePointsOVER 12.5 → 0

Possibly sat most or all of the game due to injury or coach decision, despite projected expanded role; blowout script likely reduced his minutes drastically, leading to zero scoring.

+11.5Matas BuzelisPointsUNDER 17.5 → 29

Role expansion and depleted roster led to a spike in scoring opportunities; despite a predicted low-scoring game, Buzelis capitalized offensively and exceeded projections, invalidating the expected low output.

-10.5Julius RandlePointsOVER 21.5 → 11

Unanticipated poor shooting night or foul trouble likely limited Randle's scoring; despite increased minutes and role, he scored well below his average and projections.

-9.5GG JacksonPointsOVER 19.5 → 10

Game flow or coach decision limited his minutes or usage; despite inheriting a scoring role, Jackson failed to convert opportunities leading to low point production.

+9.5Brandon MillerPointsUNDER 19.5 → 29

Defied recent trends and sharp money indication by delivering a high-scoring game with outlier shooting efficiency or volume, likely due to increased aggressive play or matchup exploitation.

+9.5Jock LandaleReboundsUNDER 3.5 → 13

Minutes exceeded expectations with blowout or role expansion, leading to a large rebounding total well beyond his recent low rebounding run.

+8.5Donte DiVincenzoPointsUNDER 13.5 → 22

Despite modest recent scoring, DiVincenzo possibly received increased offensive responsibility or had a hot shooting night that was not anticipated by projections.

Lessons for Tomorrow

  • -Integrate dynamic in-game minute and role updates and model player performance variance more robustly to reduce miss rate on combo and counting props, especially under blowout scenarios.
  • -Incorporate more dynamic minute and role adjustment modeling, especially in blowout scenarios and for players with volatile usage, to reduce systematic UNDER misses on combo and counting stats.
  • -Improve dynamic minutes and role modeling, particularly in blowouts and lineup changes, to better capture real-time player utilization impacting counting stats.

Game Recaps

CHI126
@
MEM125
Final

Sexton’s buzzer-beater stuns Memphis in a wild 126-125 finish

comebackrivalryupset
Matas Buzelis 29p/10r/3aCollin Sexton 26p/1r/2a
DET109
@
MIN87
Final

Pistons punch Wolves early and never let up in 109-87 rout

blowoutupset
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.
PHI
@
CHA
Board Readyscheduled

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No published props on this game yet.
Waiting on full boardShow More →
SAC@ATL
Board Readyscheduled

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No published props on this game yet.
Waiting on full boardShow More →
SAS@MIL
Board ReadyFinal

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No published props on this game yet.
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UTA@PHX
Board Readyscheduled

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No published props on this game yet.
Waiting on full boardShow More →
Donte DiVincenzo 22p/3r/2aRudy Gobert 14p/12r/0a
PHI118
@
CHA114
Final

Embiid, George Close Like Stars as Philly Survives Charlotte Rally

upsetcomeback
Joel Embiid 29p/6r/2aPaul George 26p/13r/2a
SAC113
@
ATL123
Final

Atlanta Answers Sacramento’s Push With a Fourth-Quarter Bursts

blowout
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27p/5r/8aJalen Johnson 26p/5r/10a
SAS127
@
MIL95
Final

Wembanyama, Castle power Spurs to 127-95 rout in Milwaukee

blowouttriple-double
Victor Wembanyama 23p/15r/6aStephon Castle 22p/10r/10a
UTA109
@
PHX134
Final

Jalen Green Sparks Suns' Early Avalanche in 134-109 Win Over Utah

blowout
Jalen Green 31p/6r/3aDevin Booker 26p/3r/8a