AI Model:

Ausar Thompson▲

DET · SF

PPG

9.9

RPG

5.8

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

6.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.1

9.9

6.8

RPG-0.8

5.8

5.0

APG+0.1

2.9

3.0

SPG+0.1

1.9

2.0

BPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

OKC

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs OKC: 11 pts

CLE

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs CLE: 18 pts

ORL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ORL: 9 pts

CLE

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CLE: 16 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 0 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 4 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 6 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 10 pts

GSW

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs GSW: 8 pts

LAL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs LAL: 6 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

OVER 1.5STAKE

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

55%

STL+BLK

UNDER 3.5

60%

R+A

UNDER 8.5STAKE

61%

P+R

UNDER 14.5STAKE

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.4

7.3

RPG

5.6

APG

3.4

vs ATL (H2H)8 games

PPG

11.5

RPG

4.8

APG

2.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Payton Pritchard	4	25	54%	-16.4%	medium
Jalen Johnson	4	16	61%	+5.0%	medium
Desmond Bane	4	14	63%	-2.1%	medium
Luka Dončić	2	13	45%

Stocks stay strong, but points are overpriced

Ausar Thompson’s season line is 9.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.9 assists in 25.8 MPG, while his recent scoring has cooled to 6.8 PPG over the last 5 and 8.8 over the last 10. His defensive production remains a strength, with 1.9 SPG, 0.9 BPG, and 2.77 stocks per game on the season, plus 3.4 stocks over the last 10. He has played better at home in scoring and defensive activity, but the current points markets sit above both his season and recent averages. With no teammate or opponent absence data provided, the cleanest edge is to lean under on scoring and prefer his defensive volume.

Stat Trends

PPG

6.8(↓ from 9.9)

RPG

5.0(↓ from 5.8)

APG

3.0(→ from 2.9)

Stocks

3.0(↑ from 2.8)

Key Matchup

The opponent defense data shows a 116.39 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of 0.217. Key defender data is present, but the provided info does not identify a specific defender matchup impact beyond no specific defender matchup data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Ausar Thompson▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	60%	9.5→13.5	18	✗
Ausar Thompson▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	5.5→6.5	4	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		5	✗
Ausar Thompson▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		4	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	90%		1	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	STL+BLK	3.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	FLIP	5	✗
Ausar Thompson▼	R+A	8.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	8.5→12.5	9	✗
Ausar Thompson▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	—	22	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 3x8/1942%▼

FTA2UNDER23%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x6/1932%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A9.5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x9/1947%▼

P+R15UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)7/1937%▼

PTS8UNDER11%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)8/1942%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

STL2UNDER30%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (11/20)9/1947%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

BLK1UNDER13%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)6/1932%▼

FTM0.5UNDER17%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/1947%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

PRA19OVER3%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)9/1947%▼

REB5OVER16%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/1947%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

AST4OVER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)9/1947%▼

Featured Pick

Ausar Thompson

Points UNDER 9.5HIGH

This is the clearest value on the board because the season average is 9.9 PPG, the last 5 is only 6.8, and multiple value props flag the UNDER with a positive edge. The market line is sitting above both the season baseline and recent form, making the under the most defensible play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Johnson	4	16	17	57%	61%
CJ McCollum	1	8	6	29%	43%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	4	6	7	43%	50%
Dyson Daniels	4	4	4	40%	40%
Onyeka Okongwu	4	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 9.574%HIGH

His season mean is 9.9 PPG and his last 5 is only 6.8, so the 9.5 line is still above recent production. The value data also shows UNDER on 9.5 at multiple books, including a 11.7% edge at one market.

reboundsUNDER 5.558%MEDIUM

He averages 5.8 RPG on the season and 5.4 over the last 5, which is close to the line but not clearly over it. His standard deviation is 2.68, so this is a fairly volatile prop and confidence should stay modest.

assistsUNDER 3.563%MEDIUM

Ausar sits at 2.9 APG for the season and 3.6 over the last 10, but the season baseline is still below 3.5. With assist variance high at 1.97 std and no absence-driven usage bump provided, the under is the safer side.

stealsOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.9 SPG on the season and 2.1 over the last 10, so 1.5 is below his typical level. The home split is even better at 2.7 SPG, supporting the over despite normal volatility.

blocksOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 BPG on the season and 1.3 over the last 10, well above a 0.5 line. Recent shot-blocking form supports clearing this number if minutes stay near his usual mid-20s.

stocksUNDER 3.560%MEDIUM

His season stock average is 2.77 and last 10 is 3.4, both short of 3.5. Even with strong defensive impact, the prop remains a bit rich relative to his baseline and the combo variance is high.

raUNDER 8.561%MEDIUM

He averages 5.79 rebounds and 2.94 assists for a combined season RA profile that is well below 8.5. He has some upside from defensive versatility, but this line asks for a ceiling outcome.

prUNDER 14.558%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds baseline is 15.71, but his last 5 scoring drop and the overall volatility make this less comfortable than it looks. Combo props are lower-hit markets, so a cautious under is preferred.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS