NightlyHoops / 2026-03-25 / ATL vs DET AI Model: NightlyHoops Board Haiku v2-gpt-5.4-mini Gemini Flash v3-gemini-flash-lite v3-gpt-4.1-nano GPT-5.4m
ATL
Atlanta Hawks
40-32 | L10: 9-1
@
DET
Detroit Pistons
52-19 | L10: 7-3
2026-03-25
Version History 3 versions
v3
Full Run 7:32 PM 12 changes
[Full run] 2 picks flipped (Tobias Harris, Daniss Jenkins), 3 new props, 3 props removed, 2 new best bets, 2 best bets removed
expand_more
v2
Full Run 12:08 PM 12 changes
[Full run] 1 pick flipped (Jalen Duren), 1 confidence change, 3 new props, 3 props removed, 2 new best bets, 2 best bets removed
expand_more v1
Full Run 10:06 AM Initial prediction
ML Game Intelligence HIGH ATL 92 - 80 DET
Key Factors
* Hawks without Jalen Johnson (22.7 PPG) - questionable (Shoulder)* Pistons without Cade Cunningham (24.5 PPG) - out ()* Pistons without Isaiah Stewart (10.0 PPG) - out (Calf)* Pistons without Jaden Ivey (8.5 PPG) - out ()* Pistons without Marcus Sasser (5.5 PPG) - doubtful (Hip)Key Matchup
Hawks has matchup advantages
ATL Advantages
+ Positional advantages + Better roster depth
Key Defensive Matchups ATL Players
Jock Landale
Jalen Duren 2g · 11m +0.0% 63% eFG low
Paul Reed 2g · 4m +0.0% 33% eFG low
Isaiah Stewart 1g · 2m +0.0% 50% eFG low
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Daniss Jenkins 4g · 13m +0.0% 50% eFG medium
Duncan Robinson 3g · 12m +0.0% 100% eFG medium
The Pistons enter at 52-19 with a 4-game streak, while the Hawks are 40-32 and riding a 9-1 stretch over their last 10, so both teams have strong recent form coming in. Rest is even at 2 days for both sides, but Detroit’s home advantage and Atlanta’s high-usage rotation make this a key matchup for several prop-heavy starters.
Key Players Prop Picks Player Prop Line Pick Confidence Trend Evolution Edge Actual Result Jalen Johnson▼
ATL
Points 14.5 betmgm UNDER 69% HIGH 30% — +13.3% 27 ✗ Onyeka Okongwu▼
ATL
Points 12.5 betmgm OVER 60% HIGH 50% — +8.6% 11 ✗ Tobias Harris▼
DET
Assists 4.5 betmgm OVER 59% HIGH 40% — +10.5% 3 ✗ Daniss Jenkins▼
DET
Assists 7.5 draftkings UNDER 87% HIGH 70% FLIP +31.1% 10 ✗ Duncan Robinson▼
DET
Points 11.5 betmgm UNDER 65% HIGH 40% — +13.3% 17 ✗
Model Comparison 7 models · 25 props compared
Sort: Confidence Consensus Player
Show: All (25) 90%+ (0) 80%+ (13) 70%+ (19) 50%+ (25)
Props Shown
25
25 total on slate
Unanimous
23
Full agreement across submitted picks
Daniss Jenkins DET AST 7.5 4/7 models submitted Best confidence 87%
3/4 lean OVER Actual 10 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini
UNDER 7.5
Elite confidence
87% v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Dyson Daniels ATL STL 1.5 2/7 models submitted Best confidence 85%
Unanimous OVER Actual 2 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Jalen Johnson ATL AST 6.5 2/7 models submitted Best confidence 85%
Unanimous OVER Actual 12 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Duncan Robinson DET 3PM 2.5 1/7 models submitted Best confidence 85%
Unanimous OVER Actual 5 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Daniss Jenkins DET points over 8.5 8.5 1/7 models submitted Best confidence 85%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Jalen Johnson ATL points over 22.5 22.5 1/7 models submitted Best confidence 85%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano
OVER 22.5
Elite confidence
85% v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Javonte Green DET points over 4.5 4.5 1/7 models submitted Best confidence 85%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL points over 18.5 18.5 1/7 models submitted Best confidence 85%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano
OVER 18.5
Elite confidence
85% v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Jalen Duren DET AST 1.5 1/7 models submitted Best confidence 84%
Unanimous UNDER Actual 3 · Miss Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Jalen Duren DET REB 10.5 1/7 models submitted Best confidence 82%
Unanimous OVER Actual 14 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Jalen Duren DET PTS 16.5 2/7 models submitted Best confidence 80%
Unanimous UNDER Actual 26 · Miss Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku
UNDER 16.5
Solid confidence
58% v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite
UNDER 23.5
High confidence
80% v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
CJ McCollum ATL AST 4.5 2/7 models submitted Best confidence 80%
Unanimous OVER Actual 5 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Jock Duren DET rebounds over 10.5 10.5 1/7 models submitted Best confidence 80%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Tobias Harris DET AST 4.5 3/7 models submitted Best confidence 78%
Unanimous OVER Actual 3 · Miss Show notes
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Tobias Harris DET REB 4.5 1/7 models submitted Best confidence 74%
Unanimous OVER Actual 3 · Miss Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Daniss Jenkins DET PRA 13.5 1/7 models submitted Best confidence 74%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Jalen Johnson ATL PTS 14.5 2/7 models submitted Best confidence 71%
Unanimous UNDER Actual 27 · Miss Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini
UNDER 14.5
Solid confidence
69% Haiku
UNDER 22.5
High confidence
71% v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Tobias Harris DET PTS 12.5 1/7 models submitted Best confidence 70%
Unanimous OVER Actual 22 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Javonte Green DET STL 0.5 1/7 models submitted Best confidence 70%
Unanimous OVER Actual 1 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
CJ McCollum ATL PTS 17.5 2/7 models submitted Best confidence 67%
Unanimous OVER Actual 27 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku
OVER 17.5
Solid confidence
67% v2-gpt-5.4-mini
OVER 17.5
Solid confidence
64% v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL PTS 20.5 2/7 models submitted Best confidence 67%
Split 1/2 OVER Actual 21 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku
UNDER 20.5
Solid confidence
60% v2-gpt-5.4-mini
OVER 18.5
Solid confidence
67% v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Duncan Robinson DET PTS 11.5 1/7 models submitted Best confidence 65%
Unanimous UNDER Actual 17 · Miss Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini
UNDER 11.5
Solid confidence
65% Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Caris LeVert DET AST 3.5 1/7 models submitted Best confidence 65%
Unanimous OVER Actual 2 · Miss Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Onyeka Okongwu ATL AST 2.5 1/7 models submitted Best confidence 63%
Unanimous OVER Actual 2 · Miss Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Onyeka Okongwu ATL PTS 12.5 1/7 models submitted Best confidence 60%
Unanimous OVER Actual 11 · Miss Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini
OVER 12.5
Solid confidence
60% Haiku No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Featured Picks Daniss Jenkins Assists UNDER 7.5 HIGH
The line is well above his 3.31 APG season average, and even after a recent role spike to 7.0 APG over the last 5, our edge remains 31.1% with 55.19 EV per 100. This is the cleanest value play in the data.
Tobias Harris Assists OVER 4.5 HIGH
His last 5 assist average is 4.6 APG versus a 2.4 season average, and the model shows a 10.5% edge with 21.52 EV per 100. That’s a strong role-driven over.
Jalen Johnson Points UNDER 14.5 HIGH
The market is pricing him below even his season profile, but the model still gives the under a 13.3% edge and 23.94 EV per 100 because of the specific line context provided. His recent 19.8 PPG still leaves room for the under to cash if the efficiency dips.
Parlay of the Game Daniss Jenkins — Assists UNDER 7.5 Leg 1
Tobias Harris — Assists OVER 4.5 Leg 2
Duncan Robinson — Points UNDER 11.5 Leg 3
These legs combine one strong under rooted in an inflated line with two role-based assist/value edges on Detroit’s side. The mix reduces reliance on a single scoring eruption and leans into the data’s strongest pricing inefficiencies.
Injury & Lineup Notes Isaiah Stewart is Out for Detroit, while Ausar Thompson, Jalen Johnson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren, CJ McCollum, Onyeka Okongwu, and the other listed active players are Available. No other injury status changes are provided beyond Daniss Jenkins being Available with an Unknown injury status field in the raw data.
Player Deep Dives This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.
