AI Model:

Jalen Johnson▼

ATL · PF

PPG

22.7

RPG

10.4

APG

8.0

L5 PPG

19.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.9

22.7

19.8

RPG-0.4

10.4

10.0

APG+1.2

8.0

9.2

SPG-0.1

1.3

1.2

BPG-0.5

0.5

0.0

UNDER 22.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

22.5

WAS

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs WAS: 5 pts

POR

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs POR: 8 pts

MIL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MIL: 20 pts

PHI

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs PHI: 35 pts

DAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DAL: 27 pts

BKN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BKN: 21 pts

MIL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIL: 23 pts

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 24 pts

DAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DAL: 17 pts

HOU

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs HOU: 14 pts

Over 22.5

Under 22.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 22.5STAKE

66%

REB

OVER 9.5STAKE

58%

AST

OVER 6.5STAKE

57%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

64%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

72%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

61%

OVER 2.5

63%

PRA

UNDER 32.5STAKE

60%

P+A

OVER 29.5STAKE

59%

R+A

OVER 16.5STAKE

60%

OVER 0.5

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.1

22.9

RPG

10.2

10.0

APG

8.4

7.9

vs DET (H2H)12 games

PPG

15.1

RPG

7.2

APG

4.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Dominick Barlow	4	36	33%	-15.9%	medium
Miles Bridges	3	29	40%	-9.2%	medium
OG Anunoby	3	24	40%	-15.9%	medium
Tobias Harris	3	22	46%

Jalen Johnson’s all-around floor is strong, but the scoring line is a little rich

Jalen Johnson is still producing elite multi-category numbers, with season averages of 22.7 PPG, 10.4 RPG, and 8.0 APG across 35.3 MPG. His recent scoring has cooled to 19.8 PPG over the last 5 and 19.4 over the last 10, which is a clear downtrend versus his season baseline. The matchup data leans slightly against a big scoring spike: he has averaged just 15.1 PPG in 12 games vs this opponent, and the opponent’s scoring suppression is -1.324 with three-point suppression at -1.21. Overall, the rebounds and assists environment remains solid, but the points market looks more efficient than his full-season production.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.8(↓ from 22.7)

RPG

10.0(→ from 10.4)

APG

9.2(↑ from 8.0)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. The opponent profile is modestly favorable for defense, with a 109.54 defensive rating, scoring suppression of -1.324, and three-point suppression of -1.21, while his direct history vs this opponent is weaker than his season production.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Johnson▼	Points	22.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	27	✗
Jalen Johnson▼	Rebounds	9.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	8	✗
Jalen Johnson▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	12	✓
Jalen Johnson▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	2	✓
Jalen Johnson▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	0	✗
Jalen Johnson▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Jalen Johnson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Jalen Johnson▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	5	✓
Jalen Johnson▼	PRA	32.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	47	✗
Jalen Johnson▼	P+A	29.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	39	✓
Jalen Johnson▼	R+A	16.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	20	✓
Jalen Johnson▼	Double-Double	0.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+R32UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x8/1942%▼

P+A30UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x8/1942%▼

R+A17.5UNDER0%logisticAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/1937%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Johnson

Threes OVER 1.5MEDIUM

This is one of the few props with positive value support, and his season average of 1.62 made threes plus 1.7 over the last 5 gives the over a workable path. The value data shows a 3.3% edge at DraftKings and a 7.13 EV per 100 at some books, which is better than the rest of his board.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tobias Harris	3	22	27	41%	46%
Ausar Thompson	4	10	10	67%	67%
Isaiah Stewart	3	10	9	100%	117%
Jalen Duren	4	4	15	64%	64%
Javonte Green	3	4	5	67%	83%

pointsUNDER 22.566%MEDIUM

He’s at 22.7 PPG for the season but only 19.8 PPG over the last 5 and 19.4 over the last 10, so the recent form is below this line. He has also averaged 15.1 PPG in 12 games vs this opponent, making the under the more conservative side.

reboundsOVER 9.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 10.4 RPG and his home/away splits stay right around 10 boards per game, so 9.5 is a reachable number. The recent 10.0 RPG over the last 5 is slightly lower than season pace, but not enough to push an under.

assistsOVER 6.557%MEDIUM

He’s averaging 8.0 APG on the season and 9.2 APG over the last 5, with a strong 8.4 APG at home. Even with some volatility, this line sits below both his season and recent creation levels.

threesOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.62 made threes per game this season and 1.7 over the last 5, so clearing 1.5 is slightly more likely than not. The value prop data also shows a positive edge on the over at this line.

stealsOVER 0.564%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.3 SPG and his last 20 sits at 1.6, well above this threshold. With a low bar of 0.5, the over is the logical side despite some game-to-game variance.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He averages just 0.5 BPG on the season and only 0.0 over the last 5, so the over needs a perfect game to cash at a meaningful rate. The recent block production does not support an over lean.

stocksOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.78 stocks on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, both above the 1.5 mark. The combined category has some variance, but his defensive event rate is good enough for the over.

turnoversOVER 2.563%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rates are elevated at 3.4 over the last 5 and 2.9 over the last 10, so this is a live over candidate if the line is around 2.5. His high-usage role naturally creates turnover risk.

praUNDER 32.560%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 41.2, but recent scoring has softened and combo props carry extra variance. With the under/over near a coin flip in the market and his recent points dip, the under is the safer lean.

paOVER 29.559%MEDIUM

He averages 30.7 P+A on the season and 29.0 over the last 5, so this line is right on the edge. His assist volume helps support the over even with the recent scoring decline.

raOVER 16.560%MEDIUM

He averages 18.4 rebounds plus assists on the season and 18.2 over the last 20, comfortably above this line. The recent 10.0 RPG and 9.2 APG combined form keeps this prop in play.

double_doubleOVER 0.567%MEDIUM

He has clear double-double potential with season marks of 22.7 PPG and 10.4 RPG, and his recent games repeatedly show double-digit contributions in multiple categories. This is one of the cleaner all-around overs on his board.

timelineUNDER 22.5 PTS