AI Model:

CJ McCollum▲

ATL · PG

PPG

18.6

RPG

3.4

APG

3.7

L5 PPG

17.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.0

18.6

17.6

RPG-1.2

3.4

2.2

APG+1.5

3.7

5.2

SPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

BPG+0.6

0.4

1.0

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

18.5

MIL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MIL: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs PHI: 17 pts

DAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DAL: 13 pts

BKN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BKN: 14 pts

MIL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIL: 30 pts

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 9 pts

DAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DAL: 24 pts

HOU

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs HOU: 17 pts

GSW

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs GSW: 23 pts

MEM

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs MEM: 15 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5STAKE

64%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

71%

AST

OVER 4.5STAKE

58%

3PM

UNDER 2.5

67%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

74%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

59%

OVER 2

57%

PRA

UNDER 26.5

60%

P+A

UNDER 22.5STAKE

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.4

22.8

RPG

3.5

2.0

APG

3.8

5.3

vs DET (H2H)10 games

PPG

24.6

RPG

3.9

APG

5.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
AJ Green	6	27	56%	-7.8%	medium
Max Christie	4	16	43%	-16.7%	medium
Amen Thompson	3	14	68%	+19.0%	medium
Sam Hauser	5	14	100%

McCollum’s scoring is steady, but the number leans slightly lower than the market

CJ McCollum is averaging 18.6 PPG on the season and 18.0 over his last 10, with his last 5 at 17.6 PPG, so his scoring profile has been fairly stable around the current range. He has been more productive on the road at 22.8 PPG in away games, but this matchup comes against a Detroit defense allowing 109.54 defensive rating with -1.324 scoring suppression and -1.21 three suppression. His usage has also tilted more toward playmaking recently, with 4.9 APG over the last 10 and 5.2 APG over the last 5, which slightly caps pure points upside.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.6(↓ from 18.6)

APG

5.2(↑ from 3.7)

3PM

1.9(↓ from 2.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defenders. Detroit's team defense profile is favorable for offense overall, but the opponent still shows -1.324 scoring suppression and -1.21 three suppression, which modestly hurts McCollum's scoring and perimeter output.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
CJ McCollum▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%		27	✗
CJ McCollum▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	70%		1	✓
CJ McCollum▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3.5→4.5	5	✓
CJ McCollum▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		5	✗
CJ McCollum▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	80%		1	✓
CJ McCollum▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	60%		0	✓
CJ McCollum▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	60%	FLIP	1	✓
CJ McCollum▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	30%		4	✓
CJ McCollum▼	PRA	26.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	—	33	✗
CJ McCollum▼	P+A	22.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	40%		32	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A23OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

P+R21.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

R+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

CJ McCollum

Rebounds UNDER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle in the data: 3.4 RPG season, 3.2 over the last 10, and 2.2 over the last 5 all sit below the line. His rebound profile is consistently modest, making the under the strongest play on the board.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Duncan Robinson	2	8	8	38%	50%
Ausar Thompson	1	7	6	60%	60%
Daniss Jenkins	2	3	7	50%	50%
Javonte Green	2	2	5	40%	50%
Kevin Huerter	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 18.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 18.6 and last 10 is 18.0, while the recent 5-game dip to 17.6 suggests the 18.5 line is right near fair value. With the better away scoring split at 22.8 PPG, there is upside, but the recent scoring trend and Detroit's scoring suppression make the under slightly safer.

reboundsUNDER 3.571%HIGH

He averages only 3.4 RPG for the season and 3.2 over the last 10, which sits below the 3.5 line. His recent 5-game rebound average is 2.2, reinforcing that this is not a strong rebound spot.

assistsOVER 4.558%MEDIUM

McCollum has averaged 4.9 APG over the last 10 and 5.2 APG over the last 5, both above the 4.5 line. His season average is only 3.7 APG, so this is a modest over with some regression risk, but the recent playmaking trend supports it.

threesUNDER 2.567%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.46 made threes and his last 10 is 1.9, which is below a 2.5 threshold. Detroit also carries -1.21 three suppression, and his recent volume has not fully matched his season baseline.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He is at 0.8 SPG for the season and 0.9 over the last 10, so a 0.5 line is low. The bet is still volatile, but his season and recent averages both clear the threshold.

blocksUNDER 0.574%HIGH

He averages just 0.4 BPG on the season, which is below the line. Even with a couple of stronger recent games, blocks remain a low-frequency stat for him.

stocksUNDER 1.559%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.19, and while the last 10 is 1.5, that is right on the edge rather than clearly above it. Given the variance in defensive stats, this is not a high-confidence over.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

He is at 2.0 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.3 over the last 10, which points to a live over if this line is set at 2.0. Recent playmaking increase has come with higher turnover pressure.

praUNDER 26.560%MEDIUM

Using season averages, his PRA projects around 25.7, and the market combo prop carries added variance. With his scoring near season level and rebounds modest, the under is the more conservative side.

paUNDER 22.555%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists baseline is 22.3, so 22.5 is essentially a fair line. Because combo props have elevated variance and his scoring has not surged, the under gets the slight lean.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS