AI Model:
C
Paul Reed▲
DET · C
PPG
7.1
RPG
4.4
APG
1.1
L5 PPG
10.8
Last 10 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG+3.7
7.1
10.8
RPG+0.4
4.4
4.8
APG+0.5
1.1
1.6
SPG-0.3
0.9
0.6
BPG+0.3
0.9
1.2
UNDER 7.5 PTS
Last 10 games
4
Current Streak
4
Longest Streak
OVER
Streak Type
7.5
6
SAS
2026-03-05
2026-03-05 vs SAS: 6 pts
10
MIA
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs MIA: 10 pts
8
BKN
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs BKN: 8 pts
6
PHI
2026-03-12
2026-03-12 vs PHI: 6 pts
0
MEM
2026-03-13
2026-03-13 vs MEM: 0 pts
4
TOR
2026-03-15
2026-03-15 vs TOR: 4 pts
10
WAS
2026-03-17
2026-03-17 vs WAS: 10 pts
17
WAS
2026-03-19
2026-03-19 vs WAS: 17 pts
15
GSW
2026-03-20
2026-03-20 vs GSW: 15 pts
8
LAL
2026-03-23
2026-03-23 vs LAL: 8 pts
Over 7.5
Under 7.5
Last 10 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
UNDER 7.5
69%
REB
OVER 4.5
57%
AST
UNDER 1.5
64%
STL+BLK
OVER 1.5
60%
DD
UNDER 0.5
72%
Home vs Away
Home
Away
PPG
7.8
11.5
RPG
4.6
5.1
APG
1.1
1.0
vs ATL (H2H)18 games
PPG
3.5
RPG
3.3
APG
0.4
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 2 | 13 | 46% | -18.3% | low |
| Nikola Vučević | 2 | 8 | 27% | -32.7% | low |
| Tristan Vukcevic | 3 | 8 | 85% | +10.0% | medium |
| Adem Bona | 3 | 7 | 100% |
Reed’s minutes are steady, but the matchup history points to a lower-scoring night
Paul Reed is trending up overall, with his last 5 games at 10.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 1.8 stocks, but that surge comes alongside just 16.6 MPG and a season baseline of 7.1 PPG and 4.4 RPG. His recent scoring is above the season mean, yet his long-term production remains tied to modest minutes, and his head-to-head line against Atlanta is only 3.5 PPG and 3.28 RPG in 18 games. Detroit is at home, where Reed has averaged 7.8 PPG and 4.6 RPG, but the combination of his limited role and strong under history vs this opponent makes the safer angle lean conservative.
Stat Trends
PPG
10.8(↑ from 7.1)
RPG
4.8(→ from 4.4)
APG
1.6(↑ from 1.1)
Key Matchup
Reed has 18 games of history vs Atlanta and averages only 3.5 PPG, 3.28 RPG, and 11.06 MPG in those matchups. Key defender data is limited to no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed opposing frontcourt names and minutes, so the strongest read comes from the full opponent history rather than a single defender.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Evolution | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Paul Reed▼ | Points | 7.5 | UNDER | 69%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | FLIP | 6 | ✓ |
Paul Reed▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 20% | FLIP | 0 | ✗ |
Paul Reed▼ | Assists | 1.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% | FLIP | 1 | ✓ |
Paul Reed▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 2 | ✓ | |
Paul Reed▼ | Double-Double | 0.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | — | — | — | — |
ML Scout Analysis
PRA14OVER42%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x8/1650%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼
P+A11UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x5/1631%▼
PTS8.5OVER12%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x8/1650%▼
FTM1UNDER13%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)8/1650%▼
FTA1.5OVER3%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)8/1650%▼
P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x6/1638%▼
AST1OVER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)6/1638%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼
BLK1UNDER45%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x4/1625%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼
R+A6.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x8/1650%▼
REB5OVER23%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x8/1650%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼
Featured Pick
Paul Reed
Points UNDER 7.5HIGH
The best anchor is the season baseline of 7.1 PPG and the long head-to-head sample against Atlanta at just 3.5 PPG. Even with a recent scoring spike, the current role and matchup history make the under the cleaner side.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.