AI Model:

Daniss Jenkins▲

DET · PG

PPG

8.3

RPG

2.0

APG

3.3

L5 PPG

16.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+7.7

8.3

16.0

RPG+1.8

2.0

3.8

APG+3.7

3.3

7.0

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG+0.2

0.2

0.4

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

16.5

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 0 pts

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 11 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 4 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 14 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 6 pts

MEM

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MEM: 4 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 15 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 9 pts

GSW

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs GSW: 22 pts

LAL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs LAL: 30 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

AST

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.2

6.5

RPG

3.2

1.8

APG

4.3

2.5

vs ATL (H2H)3 games

PPG

9.3

RPG

4.3

APG

4.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	4	22	33%	-8.5%	medium
Tre Jones	3	12	50%	+8.2%	medium
Tyrese Maxey	2	11	27%	-18.7%	low
CJ McCollum	2	10	77%

Daniss Jenkins is trending up, but the season baseline still points to a modest line

Jenkins has taken a clear step forward recently, averaging 16.0 points, 7.0 assists, and 30.6 minutes over his last 5 games, well above his season marks of 8.3 points and 3.3 assists. That said, his season-long production is much lower, and his recent surge comes with a very high minutes jump that may not hold. At home he has been stronger than away, but the matchup data does not show a major scoring boost, and the opponent profile suggests a tougher environment than his recent hot streak. The best read is to respect the role bump while still leaning against inflated overs on the highest lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.0(↑ from 8.3)

APG

7.0(↑ from 3.3)

RPG

3.8(↑ from 2.0)

THREES

1.1(↑ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Keaton Wallace, and Dyson Daniels are the listed key defenders, but there is no specific defender matchup data that clearly changes the projection. Atlanta’s opponent defense shows a 116.39 defensive rating and 100 pace, which does not create a clean reason to chase an inflated over.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Daniss Jenkins▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	1/2	80%	FLIP	19	✗
Daniss Jenkins▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	60%	FLIP	3	✓
Daniss Jenkins▼	Assists	7.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	70%	FLIP	10	✗
Daniss Jenkins▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	70%	FLIP	1	✓
Daniss Jenkins▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%		1	✓

ML Scout Analysis

3PA2.5OVER8%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

FTA3OVER15%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 4x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+A19.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 5x12/2060%▼

PRA24.5OVER26%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 10x10/2050%▼

R+A9OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)11/2055%▼

P+R16.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 10x12/2060%▼

PTS14.5OVER9%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 5x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

AST6.5OVER20%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

3PM1OVER22%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%▼

FTM2.5UNDER6%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

REB3OVER37%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

STL1UNDER17%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Daniss Jenkins

Points UNDER 16.5HIGH

The season average is 8.31 points and the last 10 average is 11.5, both well below 16.5. Even with the recent hot streak, the market number is aggressive, and the provided value data strongly favors the UNDER with a 39.0% edge.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	4	22	12	33%	33%
Dyson Daniels	4	4	8	80%	80%
Keaton Wallace	3	4	6	100%	150%
Luke Kennard	3	3	2	100%	100%
CJ McCollum	1	2	8	100%	117%

pointsUNDER 16.582%HIGH

His season mean is 8.31 points, and even with a strong recent run at 11.5 over the last 10, the 16.5 line is far above both the season and broader recent baseline. The value data also shows a 39.0% edge on the UNDER at this line.

reboundsUNDER 3.571%HIGH

Jenkins averages 2.0 rebounds on the season and 2.9 over the last 5, still short of 3.5 in a majority of outcomes. The recent role increase helps, but the line is still above his season and home averages.

assistsUNDER 7.578%HIGH

He is at 3.3 assists per game on the season and 5.6 over the last 10, but the 7.5 line requires a continuation of his peak usage. The value props show a strong UNDER edge at this number.

threesUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.93 made threes and his last 5 is 1.1, which still sits below a 1.5 line. That makes the UNDER the cleaner side, especially with his broader sample staying under the threshold.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

Jenkins averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low bar. The projection is supported by his recent defensive activity and enough volume to create steal chances.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS