AI Model:

Drake Powell▼

BKN · SG

PPG

6.0

RPG

1.7

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

5.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.8

6.0

5.2

RPG-0.1

1.7

1.6

APG+0.1

1.5

1.6

SPG-0.3

0.5

0.2

BPG+0.4

0.2

0.6

UNDER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

7.5

ATL

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs ATL: 7 pts

DAL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs DAL: 2 pts

SAS

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs SAS: 4 pts

MEM

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs MEM: 9 pts

DET

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DET: 10 pts

ATL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ATL: 11 pts

POR

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs POR: 2 pts

OKC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs OKC: 3 pts

NYK

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs NYK: 2 pts

SAC

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs SAC: 8 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7.5STAKE

71%

REB

UNDER 2.5STAKE

78%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

62%

3PM

OVER 0.5

57%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

74%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

76%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

73%

UNDER 2

68%

P+A

UNDER 9.5STAKE

65%

P+R

UNDER 10.5STAKE

77%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.2

6.6

RPG

1.8

2.0

APG

0.8

1.6

vs GSW (H2H)1 games

PPG

2.0

RPG

0.0

APG

0.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Payton Pritchard	3	10	95%	+30.9%	medium
Jalen Brunson	4	10	50%	+2.6%	medium
Anfernee Simons	4	8	50%	+8.2%	medium
Kon Knueppel	3	7	0%

Powell’s role is stable, but the production ceiling remains modest

Drake Powell is averaging 6.0 points, 1.7 rebounds, and 1.5 assists on the season in 19.7 MPG, and his last-10 scoring has settled at 5.8 PPG with a down trend. The minutes have ticked up recently to 22.5 MPG over the last 10 and 23.8 MPG over the last 5, but his recent game logs still show a low-usage profile with limited counting stats. The matchup is not especially restrictive on paper, but his head-to-head sample is just 1 game with 2 points in 17 minutes, so the best angle is to lean conservative on his low-scoring and low-rebound baseline. With several teammate absences, his playing time is supported, yet the season-long averages still point to a limited fantasy ceiling.

Stat Trends

PPG

5.2(↓ from 6.0)

RPG

1.6(→ from 1.7)

APG

1.6(→ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The opponent context shows a 114.76 defensive rating and a -0.149 scoring suppression, while three suppression is -0.62, which does not create a strong boost for Powell's scoring profile.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Drake Powell▼	Points	7.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	60%	10	✗
Drake Powell▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	70%	2	✓
Drake Powell▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✓
Drake Powell▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✓
Drake Powell▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	80%	2	✗
Drake Powell▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Drake Powell▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	—	80%	2	✗
Drake Powell▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	100%	0	✓
Drake Powell▼	P+A	9.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	10	✗
Drake Powell▼	P+R	10.5	UNDER	77%HIGH	2/2	60%	12	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA15.5UNDER5%logisticDecent Leg (15/20)4/2020%+28.8% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved HIGH to LOW; Line moved +5.5▼

PTS10.5UNDER11%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)4/2020%+27.2% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

REB2.5UNDER14%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x5/2025%+24.5% edgeConfidence moved HIGH to LOW; Odds moved materially▼

3PM1.5UNDER5%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%+7.2% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Value edge changed +0.059; Odds moved materially▼

P+R9UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

P+A8.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

R+A3UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Drake Powell

Rebounds UNDER 2.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge because Powell is at 1.7 RPG for the season and 1.6 RPG over the last 5, with no sign of a rebound spike. The line is materially above his normal output, and the recent minutes increase has not translated into more boards.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Brandin Podziemski	2	4	0	0%	0%
De'Anthony Melton	2	3	2	0%	0%
Gui Santos	2	3	2	33%	33%
Gary Payton II	2	2	0	0%	0%
Draymond Green	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 7.571%HIGH

He averages 6.0 PPG on the season and 5.2 over the last 5, both below 7.5. His last-10 mark is 5.8 PPG, and the recent game log shows only one game above 8 points in the last five.

reboundsUNDER 2.578%HIGH

Powell is at 1.7 RPG for the season and 1.6 RPG over the last 5, well below 2.5. Even with extra minutes, his rebound rate has not shown enough lift to justify the over.

assistsUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

He sits at 1.5 APG on the season and 1.6 APG over the last 5, making this close, but his last-10 average is only 1.3 APG. Given the over-bias warning and his low-volume role, the under is the safer side.

threesOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.74 threes per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, both above 0.5. The confidence is only moderate because his 3-point volume is inconsistent and the season std of 0.89 is high relative to the mean.

stealsUNDER 0.574%HIGH

Powell averages 0.5 steals per game on the season and only 0.2 over the last 5 and last 10. The recent trend is clearly below the line, so the under is the better play.

blocksUNDER 0.576%HIGH

He averages 0.2 blocks per game on the season and 0.6 over the last 5, but the long-run baseline is still far below 0.5. The sample is volatile, yet the season profile supports the under more than the over.

stocksUNDER 1.573%HIGH

His season average for stocks is 0.65 and recent mark is 0.5, both comfortably below 1.5. This is a high-variance category, but the baseline is too low to chase the over.

turnoversUNDER 268%MEDIUM

He is averaging 1.0 turnover over the last 5 and 0.8 over the last 10, which points well below 2.0. His low-usage role keeps turnover risk limited.

paUNDER 9.565%MEDIUM

His season P+A is 7.5 using the provided 6.0 points and 1.5 assists, and recent form is not strong enough to push him to 9.5. Combo props are volatile, so the conservative side is preferred.

prUNDER 10.577%HIGH

Powell's season points plus rebounds is 7.7, far below 10.5. Even with increased minutes, his recent scoring and rebounding trends do not suggest a big enough leap.

timelineUNDER 7.5 PTS