Nets vs Warriors — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

BKN

Nets

17-55 | L10: 2-8

GSW

Warriors

34-38 | L10: 2-8

2026-03-25

Version History

2 versions

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

BKN92%

9%GSW

BKN80-80GSW

Key Factors

*Warriors without Stephen Curry (26.9 PPG) - out ()
*Nets without Michael Porter Jr. (24.2 PPG) - out (Hamstring)
*Warriors without Jimmy Butler III (20.0 PPG) - out ()
*Nets without Noah Clowney (12.5 PPG) - out (Wrist)
*Warriors without Moses Moody (12.1 PPG) - out ()

Key Matchup

Warriors has matchup advantages

GSW Advantages

+ Positional advantages
+ Better roster depth

BKN Advantages

Key Defensive Matchups

BKN Players

Nic Claxton

Draymond Green2g · 7m+0.0%25% eFGlow

Trayce Jackson-Davis1g · 4m+0.0%100% eFGlow

Kristaps Porziņģis1g · 2m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Ziaire Williams

Gui Santos1g · 3m+0.0%125% eFGlow

Kristaps Porziņģis1g · 2m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Brooklyn enters at 17-55 with a 2-8 last 10 and an 8-game skid, while Golden State is 34-38 but has also gone 2-8 over its last 10. Both teams are on 2 days rest, and the Warriors are still managing a long injury list that has opened up usage and minutes for several rotation pieces.

Team Comparison

BKNGSW

Key Players

Gui Santos is up to 29.0 mpg over his last 5 compared with 19.6 mpg for the season, but his last 5 scoring is 12.4 PPG versus 8.3 season-long. He is carrying a bigger role with multiple teammate absences, though the last-5 decline from his 15.3 PPG last 10 suggests some regression risk if the workload normalizes. No historical defender matchup data available.

ProjectedPTS: 2.6-9.2-15.8REB: 1-4-7AST: 0.7-3.1-5.5

Moody is out, so his season averages are not directly actionable for tonight's stat projection. His absence is part of the usage vacuum on Golden State, and any prop market tied to his production should be ignored. No historical defender matchup data available.

ProjectedPTS: 6.3-12.9-19.5REB: 0.3-3.3-6.3AST: 0-2-4.4

Melton's last 5 scoring is 13.2 PPG versus 12.8 for the season, but his game-to-game volatility is obvious with a 0-point outing on 7 turnovers followed by a 20-point game. The minutes are modest at 24.2 mpg over his last 5, so the prop profile is still volatile despite the injury-driven role expansion. No historical defender matchup data available.

ProjectedPTS: 5.4-12-18.6REB: 0.3-3.3-6.3AST: 0.3-2.7-5.1

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Evolution	Edge	Actual	Result
Kristaps Porziņģis▼ GSW	Points	12.5draftkings	OVER	62%MEDIUM	50%	—	+28.6%	17	✓
Brandin Podziemski▼ GSW	3PM	1.5draftkings	OVER	60%MEDIUM	60%	—	+12.7%	2	✓
Nic Claxton▼ BKN	Points	9.5betrivers	UNDER	68%HIGH	70%	9.5→13.5	+9.9%	8	✓
Nic Claxton▼ BKN	Rebounds	8.5stake	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	90%	—	+5.6%	4	✓
Jalen Wilson▼ BKN	Points	9.5draftkings	UNDER	70%HIGH	70%	—	+22.0%	15	✗

Model Comparison

4 models · 25 props compared

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Props Shown

25 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Kristaps Porziņģis

Points OVER 12.5MEDIUM

The biggest quantified edge on the slate is Porziņģis points OVER 12.5, with a 28.6% edge and 55.82 EV per 100. His 16.7 season PPG and 17.6 last 5 both clear the line comfortably.

Nic Claxton

Points UNDER 9.5HIGH

Claxton's recent scoring profile is clearly below the market at 8.4 PPG over the last 5 and 7.5 over the last 10, with the model giving the UNDER a 9.9% edge. Lower recent minutes at 21.6 mpg reinforce the under case.

Jalen Wilson

Points UNDER 9.5HIGH

Wilson has a hot last 5 at 10.2 PPG, but his season average is just 5.6 and the model still assigns a 22.0% edge to the UNDER. That gap suggests the recent surge is priced too aggressively.

Parlay of the Game

Kristaps Porziņģis — Points OVER 12.5Leg 1

Nic Claxton — Points UNDER 9.5Leg 2

Jalen Wilson — Points UNDER 9.5Leg 3

This mix pairs the strongest over edge with two unders that are supported by season baselines and recent-minute context. The Claxton and Wilson unders are especially appealing because both players have recent production that is likely overextended relative to their season averages.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Moses Moody is Out, and Golden State also lists Jimmy Butler III, Seth Curry, and Stephen Curry as Out; Brooklyn lists Day'Ron Sharpe, Michael Porter Jr., Noah Clowney, Nolan Traore, and Tyrese Martin as Out. Injury-driven usage is the main reason several rotation players show elevated recent minutes and scoring.