AI Model:

Gary Payton II—

GSW · SG

PPG

7.1

RPG

3.5

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

15.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+8.7

7.1

15.8

RPG+1.5

3.5

5.0

APG+1.5

1.7

3.2

SPG+1.3

0.9

2.2

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

UNDER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

7.5

LAL

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs LAL: 12 pts

OKC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs OKC: 7 pts

UTA

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs UTA: 13 pts

CHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHI: 12 pts

MIN

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MIN: 12 pts

NYK

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs NYK: 19 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 15 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 14 pts

DET

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DET: 14 pts

DAL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs DAL: 17 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7.5STAKE

86%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

67%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

58%

3PM

OVER 0.5STAKE

55%

STL

OVER 0.5

62%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

79%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

64%

P+R

UNDER 10.5STAKE

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.2

12.8

RPG

3.1

5.0

APG

2.1

vs BKN (H2H)5 games

PPG

8.8

RPG

5.0

APG

1.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Donovan Mitchell	2	7	30%	-37.7%	low
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	4	6	44%	-20.2%	medium
Lauri Markkanen	2	6	67%	+9.0%	low
Jamal Murray	3	6	57%

Minutes bump boosts GP2, but the scoring line still looks too high

Gary Payton II has been playing well lately, with his last 5 jumping to 15.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 3.2 APG on 23.8 MPG, far above his season rates of 7.1/3.5/1.7. The role increase is supported by the teammate absences, especially Jimmy Butler III, Stephen Curry, Moses Moody, and Seth Curry all out, which should keep Payton involved. Even with that boost, his season mean and the current game environment suggest some regression from the last-5 surge, especially on points and assists. Rebounds and defensive stats remain the more stable parts of his profile, but the strongest book edge is on the under side for scoring.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.8(↑ from 7.1)

RPG

5.0(↑ from 3.5)

APG

3.2(↑ from 1.7)

SPG

2.2(↑ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. The opponent profile shows a 115.75 defensive rating and 100 pace, which points to a fairly average environment rather than a clear boost for his ceiling, though the opponent absences can help keep his role stable.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Gary Payton II▼	Points	7.5	UNDER	86%HIGH	1/2	10%	10	✗
Gary Payton II▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✓
Gary Payton II▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	7	✗
Gary Payton II▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✗
Gary Payton II▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	100%	1	✓
Gary Payton II▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	79%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Gary Payton II▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✗
Gary Payton II▼	P+R	10.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	0%	17	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS11.5OVER50%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)15/2075%+21.7% edgeConfidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

PRA20.5UNDER5%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.083; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

P+A15.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

REB4.5OVER21%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R18OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Gary Payton II

Points UNDER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season scoring average is 7.1 PPG, and the value data strongly favors the under on higher points lines. The last-5 run is inflated at 15.8 PPG, so the projection should lean back toward the season baseline rather than chase the recent heater.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Drake Powell	2	2	0	0%	0%
Michael Porter Jr.	1	2	4	67%	67%
Ben Saraf	1	2	3	100%	150%
Terance Mann	2	1	0	0%	0%
Jalen Wilson	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 7.586%HIGH

His season mean is 7.1 PPG and the value data shows multiple books favoring the under on higher points lines, including a 10.5 line with a 15.5% to 20.4% edge for UNDER. The last-5 spike to 15.8 PPG is well above season average, so regression risk is high.

assistsUNDER 2.567%MEDIUM

He averages 1.7 APG for the season and 2.4 over the last 10, but the line at 2.5 is still above his baseline. The season std is 1.66, so this is volatile, but the under has positive edge in value_props and the season number remains the better anchor.

reboundsUNDER 4.558%MEDIUM

Season rebound mean is 3.49 and his last 10 is 5.3, so the market has already adjusted to some extent. With a 2.97 season std and only moderate edge on the under, this is playable but not a high-confidence spot.

threesOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.57 threes per game on the season and has hit 0.7 over the last 10, so a single make is slightly more likely than not. Confidence stays modest because the season volume is low and the edge is tiny.

stealsOVER 0.562%MEDIUM

He is at 0.9 steals per game for the season and 1.7 over the last 20, which makes a 0.5 line too low for his defensive event rate. The recent form and 22.3 recent MPG support the over.

blocksUNDER 0.579%HIGH

He averages only 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 10. That is well below the 0.5 threshold, so the under is the clear side.

stocksOVER 1.564%MEDIUM

He combines 1.17 stocks per game on the season with 2.1 over the last 10 and 1.9 over the last 20. With 0.9 steals plus 0.3 blocks seasonally, he has meaningful defensive-event volume.

prUNDER 10.561%MEDIUM

His season PR is 10.6 using 7.1 points and 3.5 rebounds, but the combo is still close to the line and combo props carry extra variance. Given the strong regression risk from the last-5 scoring spike, the under is slightly preferred.

timelineUNDER 7.5 PTS