Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Holland II | 3 | 4 | 50% | +3.2% | medium |
| Amen Thompson | 2 | 4 | 67% | +27.0% | low |
| Daniss Jenkins | 3 | 4 | 50% | +10.3% | medium |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 2 | 3 | 25% |
Jalen Wilson’s form has ticked up recently, with 10.2 PPG over his last 5 games compared to a 5.6 season average, but that surge comes in a small sample and with only 23.0 MPG in that stretch. His broader baseline is still modest at 5.6 points, 1.7 rebounds, and 0.6 assists per game, and his 46-game season profile suggests limited volume. The matchup is not especially punitive on paper, but the available value data still points to a conservative scoring expectation. With multiple teammates out, his role can remain elevated, yet the season-long production and line pricing still favor restraint on overs.
No specific defender matchup data. The opponent side shows mixed defensive context, with Golden State listed at a 114.76 defensive rating and a -0.149 scoring suppression value, but the data also shows -0.62 three suppression, which makes the shooting context less straightforward.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jalen Wilson▼ | Points | 9.5 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | 2/2 | 70% | 15 | ✗ |
Jalen Wilson▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 3 | ✗ |
Jalen Wilson▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
Jalen Wilson▼ | Assists | 0.5 | OVER | 52%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 30% | 2 | ✓ |
Jalen Wilson▼ | STL+BLK | 0.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 0 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest value play in the data, with a 22% edge and our model giving the under a 0.757 probability at DraftKings. Even though Wilson’s last 5 games are stronger, his 5.6 season PPG and 14.6 MPG baseline make 9.5 a high bar.
| low |
| Patrick Williams | 1 | 3 | 50% | +10.3% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Anthony Melton | 1 | 2 | 3 | 50% | 50% |
| Gui Santos | 1 | 1 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
| Brandin Podziemski | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Gary Payton II | 1 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Kristaps Porziņģis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 100% | 100% |
The best value data shows a 22% edge on the UNDER at 9.5 with our_prob_under at 0.757. His season mean is only 5.57 points, and the recent 10.2 PPG run is a clear spike above baseline.
He averages 1.7 rebounds on the season and 2.0 over the last 10, both below this line. The value props also favor UNDER at every listed book, including a 15% edge at one market.
Season threes sit at 1.02 per game and last 10 at 1.1, both below 1.5. The under is supported by the value data and by a relatively modest 1.0 away average.
His season mean is 0.61 assists and last 5 is 1.0, so he clears a 0.5 projection more often than not. Confidence stays low because the sample is small and his assist profile is volatile.
He averages 0.43 stocks on the season and 0.4 over the last 20. That sits below 0.5 and the combination of steals/blocks is not strong enough to chase an over.