AI Model:

Jalen Wilson▲

BKN · SG

PPG

5.6

RPG

1.7

APG

0.6

L5 PPG

10.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.6

5.6

10.2

RPG+1.7

1.7

3.4

APG+0.4

0.6

1.0

SPG0.0

0.4

BPG0.0

0.0

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

9.5

OKC

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs OKC: 5 pts

SAS

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs SAS: 9 pts

BOS

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs BOS: 0 pts

MIA

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIA: 0 pts

MIA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIA: 0 pts

MEM

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs MEM: 6 pts

DET

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DET: 14 pts

ATL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ATL: 5 pts

OKC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs OKC: 15 pts

POR

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs POR: 11 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

REB

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

AST

OVER 0.5

52%

STL+BLK

UNDER 0.5

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.7

5.5

RPG

2.4

2.5

APG

1.0

0.7

vs GSW (H2H)3 games

PPG

9.7

RPG

3.7

APG

0.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Ronald Holland II	3	4	50%	+3.2%	medium
Amen Thompson	2	4	67%	+27.0%	low
Daniss Jenkins	3	4	50%	+10.3%	medium
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	2	3	25%

Wilson’s minutes have climbed, but the under remains the sharper angle

Jalen Wilson’s form has ticked up recently, with 10.2 PPG over his last 5 games compared to a 5.6 season average, but that surge comes in a small sample and with only 23.0 MPG in that stretch. His broader baseline is still modest at 5.6 points, 1.7 rebounds, and 0.6 assists per game, and his 46-game season profile suggests limited volume. The matchup is not especially punitive on paper, but the available value data still points to a conservative scoring expectation. With multiple teammates out, his role can remain elevated, yet the season-long production and line pricing still favor restraint on overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.2(↑ from 5.6)

RPG

3.4(↑ from 1.7)

APG

1.0(↑ from 0.6)

3PM

1.4(↑ from 1.0)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The opponent side shows mixed defensive context, with Golden State listed at a 114.76 defensive rating and a -0.149 scoring suppression value, but the data also shows -0.62 three suppression, which makes the shooting context less straightforward.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Wilson▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	70%	15	✗
Jalen Wilson▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✗
Jalen Wilson▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓
Jalen Wilson▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	2	✓
Jalen Wilson▼	STL+BLK	0.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓

ML Scout Analysis

3PM1.5UNDER27%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (14/20)5/1436%+20.0% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted +0.462▼

PRA19.5UNDER27%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)3/1421%+24.4% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS13.5UNDER22%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)4/1429%+16.9% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x5/1436%▼

P+A10.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 5x7/1450%▼

REB4.5UNDER12%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x4/1429%+8.2% edge▼

P+R13OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 5x7/1450%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Wilson

Points UNDER 9.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value play in the data, with a 22% edge and our model giving the under a 0.757 probability at DraftKings. Even though Wilson’s last 5 games are stronger, his 5.6 season PPG and 14.6 MPG baseline make 9.5 a high bar.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
De'Anthony Melton	1	2	3	50%	50%
Gui Santos	1	1	3	50%	75%
Brandin Podziemski	1	1	0	0%	0%
Gary Payton II	1	1	2	100%	100%
Kristaps Porziņģis	1	1	4	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 9.578%HIGH

The best value data shows a 22% edge on the UNDER at 9.5 with our_prob_under at 0.757. His season mean is only 5.57 points, and the recent 10.2 PPG run is a clear spike above baseline.

reboundsUNDER 2.568%MEDIUM

He averages 1.7 rebounds on the season and 2.0 over the last 10, both below this line. The value props also favor UNDER at every listed book, including a 15% edge at one market.

threesUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

Season threes sit at 1.02 per game and last 10 at 1.1, both below 1.5. The under is supported by the value data and by a relatively modest 1.0 away average.

assistsOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

His season mean is 0.61 assists and last 5 is 1.0, so he clears a 0.5 projection more often than not. Confidence stays low because the sample is small and his assist profile is volatile.

stocksUNDER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages 0.43 stocks on the season and 0.4 over the last 20. That sits below 0.5 and the combination of steals/blocks is not strong enough to chase an over.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS