AI Model:

Josh Minott—

BKN · PF

PPG

6.8

RPG

3.3

APG

1.0

L5 PPG

16.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+10.0

6.8

16.8

RPG-0.1

3.3

3.2

APG+0.2

1.0

1.2

SPG+1.0

0.8

1.8

BPG+0.8

0.4

1.2

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

BOS

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs BOS: 9 pts

CLE

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs CLE: 5 pts

MIA

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIA: 0 pts

MIA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIA: 0 pts

DET

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DET: 9 pts

ATL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ATL: 24 pts

PHI

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs PHI: 14 pts

OKC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs OKC: 9 pts

NYK

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs NYK: 22 pts

POR

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs POR: 15 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

84%

REB

UNDER 4.5BETMGM

79%

AST

UNDER 1

71%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

STL

OVER 0.8

60%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

63%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

58%

UNDER 1.5

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.2

7.4

RPG

1.3

2.4

APG

0.6

0.3

vs GSW (H2H)3 games

PPG

1.0

RPG

0.0

APG

0.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Evan Mobley	3	9	0%	-50.0%	medium
Tyrese Maxey	3	7	75%	+0.0%	medium
Jalen Brunson	2	7	14%	-35.7%	low
Franz Wagner	3	5	67%

Minott's minutes are up, but the prop market still leans under

Josh Minott has flashed a clear usage spike lately, with 16.8 PPG over his last 5 and 24.4 MPG, but that’s well above his season baseline of 6.8 PPG in 16.4 MPG and suggests some regression. His last 10 settles closer to the season at 10.7 PPG, while the season-long profile remains modest across points, rebounds, and assists. The injury context helps him stay involved, but the stronger historical sample and the book prices point more conservatively to unders, especially on points and rebounds. Against Golden State, the overall pace is workable, but the matchup data does not provide a specific defender edge and his prior head-to-head sample is minimal at 1.0 PPG in 3 games.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.8(↑ from 6.8)

RPG

3.2(→ from 3.3)

APG

1.2(→ from 1.0)

3PM

(↑ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. Golden State’s opponent profile shows a 114.76 defensive rating and -0.62 three suppression, which does not clearly support an aggressive over case for Minott’s scoring or perimeter volume.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Josh Minott▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	1/2	60%	FLIP	8	✓
Josh Minott▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	79%HIGH	1/2	80%	3.5→4.5	2	✓
Josh Minott▼	Assists	1	UNDER	71%HIGH	—	80%		3	✗
Josh Minott▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP	2	✗
Josh Minott▼	Steals	0.8	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		2	✓
Josh Minott▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	60%	FLIP	1	✗
Josh Minott▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%		3	✓
Josh Minott▼	Turnovers	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	50%	FLIP	5	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA17.5UNDER23%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 3x4/1429%+17.3% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS12.5UNDER15%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)7/1450%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed -0.051▼

REB4.5UNDER55%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x3/1421%+21.7% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

P+A13OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)7/1450%▼

R+A3.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x6/1443%▼

P+R15OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)7/1450%▼

3PM1.5OVER26%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)8/1457%▼

Featured Pick

Josh Minott

Points UNDER 12.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge on the board: season scoring is 6.8 PPG, last 10 is 10.7, and the value data shows a 28.6% edge on the UNDER at DraftKings. His last 5 surge to 16.8 PPG is exactly the kind of short-term spike that tends to regress back toward the season mean.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Gui Santos	1	2	3	50%	50%
Kristaps Porziņģis	1	2	3	100%	100%
Pat Spencer	1	1	2	100%	100%
Gary Payton II	1	1	2	100%	100%
Will Richard	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 12.584%HIGH

Season scoring is 6.8 PPG, and the value market shows the UNDER as the best side with a 28.6% edge at DraftKings. His last 5 at 16.8 PPG is far above season form, so regression risk is high.

reboundsUNDER 4.579%HIGH

He averages 3.3 RPG on the season and just 2.6 RPG over the last 10, both below 4.5. The value props also flag UNDER with a 27.5% edge at BetMGM.

assistsUNDER 171%HIGH

Season APG is 1.0 and last 10 is 0.8, so the profile is thin for clearing a higher assist threshold. His season and recent samples both point to limited playmaking volume.

threesUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

He averages 1.23 made threes per game, but the price still leans UNDER across books and his production is only modestly above the line. The opponent context does not create a strong enough boost to override the conservative lean.

stealsOVER 0.860%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals per game on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, with 1.8 over the last 5. That recent defensive activity gives him a reasonable path to clear a modest steals line.

blocksUNDER 0.563%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 blocks on the season and 0.7 over the last 10, which keeps him near but not clearly above a 0.5 line. The variance is manageable, but the season baseline still sits below the mark.

stocksOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.27, and the last 10 is 1.8 while the last 5 jumps to 3.0. This is a volatile combo, so confidence stays moderate despite the recent spike.

turnoversUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

He has 1.0 turnovers per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, with recent 1.8 in the last 5. The current role is larger, but the season baseline still sits below a 1.5 line.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS