Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Mobley | 3 | 9 | 0% | -50.0% | medium |
| Tyrese Maxey | 3 | 7 | 75% | +0.0% | medium |
| Jalen Brunson | 2 | 7 | 14% | -35.7% | low |
| Franz Wagner | 3 | 5 | 67% |
Josh Minott has flashed a clear usage spike lately, with 16.8 PPG over his last 5 and 24.4 MPG, but that’s well above his season baseline of 6.8 PPG in 16.4 MPG and suggests some regression. His last 10 settles closer to the season at 10.7 PPG, while the season-long profile remains modest across points, rebounds, and assists. The injury context helps him stay involved, but the stronger historical sample and the book prices point more conservatively to unders, especially on points and rebounds. Against Golden State, the overall pace is workable, but the matchup data does not provide a specific defender edge and his prior head-to-head sample is minimal at 1.0 PPG in 3 games.
No specific defender matchup data. Golden State’s opponent profile shows a 114.76 defensive rating and -0.62 three suppression, which does not clearly support an aggressive over case for Minott’s scoring or perimeter volume.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Evolution | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Minott▼ | Points | 12.5 | UNDER | 84%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | FLIP | 8 | ✓ |
Josh Minott▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | UNDER | 79%HIGH | 1/2 | 80% | 3.5→4.5 | 2 | ✓ |
Josh Minott▼ | Assists | 1 | UNDER | 71%HIGH | — | 80% | 3 | ✗ | |
Josh Minott▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | FLIP | 2 | ✗ |
Josh Minott▼ | Steals | 0.8 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 2 | ✓ | |
Josh Minott▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | — | 60% | FLIP | 1 | ✗ |
Josh Minott▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 3 | ✓ | |
Josh Minott▼ | Turnovers | 1.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | — | 50% | FLIP | 5 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest edge on the board: season scoring is 6.8 PPG, last 10 is 10.7, and the value data shows a 28.6% edge on the UNDER at DraftKings. His last 5 surge to 16.8 PPG is exactly the kind of short-term spike that tends to regress back toward the season mean.
| medium |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 2 | 5 | 0% | -50.0% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gui Santos | 1 | 2 | 3 | 50% | 50% |
| Kristaps Porziņģis | 1 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 100% |
| Pat Spencer | 1 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Gary Payton II | 1 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Will Richard | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
Season scoring is 6.8 PPG, and the value market shows the UNDER as the best side with a 28.6% edge at DraftKings. His last 5 at 16.8 PPG is far above season form, so regression risk is high.
He averages 3.3 RPG on the season and just 2.6 RPG over the last 10, both below 4.5. The value props also flag UNDER with a 27.5% edge at BetMGM.
Season APG is 1.0 and last 10 is 0.8, so the profile is thin for clearing a higher assist threshold. His season and recent samples both point to limited playmaking volume.
He averages 1.23 made threes per game, but the price still leans UNDER across books and his production is only modestly above the line. The opponent context does not create a strong enough boost to override the conservative lean.
He averages 0.8 steals per game on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, with 1.8 over the last 5. That recent defensive activity gives him a reasonable path to clear a modest steals line.
He averages 0.4 blocks on the season and 0.7 over the last 10, which keeps him near but not clearly above a 0.5 line. The variance is manageable, but the season baseline still sits below the mark.
His season stocks average is 1.27, and the last 10 is 1.8 while the last 5 jumps to 3.0. This is a volatile combo, so confidence stays moderate despite the recent spike.
He has 1.0 turnovers per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, with recent 1.8 in the last 5. The current role is larger, but the season baseline still sits below a 1.5 line.