AI Model:

Ziaire Williams▲

BKN · SF

PPG

10.0

RPG

2.5

APG

1.0

L5 PPG

12.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.6

10.0

12.6

RPG+0.3

2.5

2.8

APG+0.2

1.0

1.2

SPG+0.3

1.3

1.6

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

10.5

MIA

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIA: 16 pts

MIA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIA: 15 pts

DET

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs DET: 23 pts

MEM

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs MEM: 11 pts

PHI

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs PHI: 9 pts

POR

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs POR: 7 pts

OKC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs OKC: 5 pts

NYK

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs NYK: 17 pts

SAC

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs SAC: 18 pts

POR

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs POR: 16 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

AST

OVER 1

52%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

STL

OVER 1

51%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

60%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.3

11.2

RPG

2.9

1.9

APG

1.9

1.5

vs GSW (H2H)9 games

PPG

8.0

RPG

3.0

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Desmond Bane	3	10	40%	-2.5%	medium
James Harden	3	9	33%	-9.2%	medium
Jalen Brunson	3	8	64%	+12.0%	medium
Anfernee Simons	4	8	44%

Ziaire’s scoring has trended up, but the best edge is on the glass

Ziaire Williams is in better recent form, with 13.7 PPG over the last 10 and 12.6 PPG over the last 5, both above his 10.0 season average. His minutes have stayed stable around 23, but his season profile still suggests modest overall production, especially in rebounds and assists. The strongest betting angle from the provided value data is rebounds under, while points sit near a fair number with a slight lean to the under rather than chasing the recent scoring bump.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.6(↑ from 10.0)

RPG

2.8(→ from 2.5)

APG

1.2(→ from 1.0)

Stocks

1.8(↑ from 1.6)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and the provided matchup data does not identify a clear one-on-one matchup edge. The opponent context shows a 114.76 defensive rating, 100 pace, and a -0.62 three suppression, which slightly supports perimeter scoring but does not create a strong matchup boost.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Ziaire Williams▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	FLIP	19	✗
Ziaire Williams▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	60%	2.5→3.5	1	✓
Ziaire Williams▼	Assists	1	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	40%		2	✓
Ziaire Williams▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		1	✗
Ziaire Williams▼	Steals	1	OVER	51%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1→1.3	6	✓
Ziaire Williams▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	90%	—	0	✓
Ziaire Williams▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%		6	✓

ML Scout Analysis

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

P+A13OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R14OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Ziaire Williams

Rebounds UNDER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board from the provided data, with multiple books showing strong under edges and his season mean sitting at just 2.46 rebounds. His recent 2.5 RPG and modest minute load around 23 MPG make 4 rebounds a tougher ask than the line implies.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Gui Santos	1	3	5	100%	125%
Kristaps Porziņģis	1	2	0	0%	0%
Draymond Green	1	1	0	0%	0%
Brandin Podziemski	1	1	3	50%	50%
De'Anthony Melton	1	1	5	50%	63%

pointsUNDER 10.556%MEDIUM

His season mean is exactly 10.0, and the value data leans under at 10.5 even with the recent 13.7 last-10 scoring. With the over/under near his baseline and no strong volume spike in minutes, the under is the safer side.

reboundsUNDER 3.574%HIGH

The value props show strong under support at both 3.5 and 2.5, and his season average is only 2.46 rebounds. Recent production is still just 2.5 RPG, so he needs an outsized rebounding game to get over this number.

assistsOVER 152%MEDIUM

He averages 1.02 APG on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, which is enough to justify a slight over lean at a projected 1.0 line. The standard deviation is high relative to the mean, so this stays a low-confidence play.

threesOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

He averages 1.58 made threes per game on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, with multiple recent games at 2+ makes. The provided value data also gives a small edge to the over at 1.5.

stealsOVER 151%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 1.3 and last 5 is 1.6, so a 1.0 projected line is reachable. This is still volatile, but the baseline volume supports a slight over lean.

blocksUNDER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.4 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. That makes the under the more likely outcome at a 0.5 line.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.63 and recent form is 1.7, both above a 1.5 threshold. The category is still somewhat volatile, but the baseline supports the over.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS