AI Model:

Adem Bona▲

PHI · C

PPG

4.9

RPG

4.5

APG

0.4

L5 PPG

7.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.1

4.9

7.0

RPG+1.3

4.5

5.8

APG+0.4

0.4

0.8

SPG+0.6

0.4

1.0

BPG+0.3

1.3

1.6

OVER 3.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

3.5

UTA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs UTA: 12 pts

ATL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ATL: 4 pts

CLE

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs CLE: 8 pts

MEM

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MEM: 4 pts

BKN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BKN: 9 pts

POR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs POR: 2 pts

DEN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DEN: 6 pts

SAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAC: 8 pts

UTA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs UTA: 16 pts

OKC

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs OKC: 3 pts

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 3.5STAKE

62%

REB

OVER 3.5STAKE

64%

AST

UNDER 0.5

70%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

74%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

69%

P+R

OVER 7.5STAKE

57%

P+A

OVER 3.5STAKE

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

6.1

6.9

RPG

5.6

APG

0.8

1.0

vs CHI (H2H)5 games

PPG

5.4

RPG

5.4

APG

0.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Evan Mobley	4	14	68%	-1.3%	medium
Karl-Anthony Towns	3	9	65%	-0.1%	medium
Nic Claxton	3	9	100%	+39.9%	medium
Collin Murray-Boyles	3	8	29%

Bona’s minutes are trending up, but the prop board is still cautious on his scoring

Adem Bona is coming in with an uptrend: his last 5 games are 7.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 2.6 stocks on 20.2 MPG, all above his season baseline of 4.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 1.72 stocks. The minutes bump is real too, with his last 10 at 23.4 MPG versus 17.9 MPG for the season, but his season production still keeps the bar relatively low. This matchup is not especially inviting on paper, since the opponent is allowing 120.34 defensive rating with 100 pace, yet his vs-opponent history is only 5.4 PPG and 5.4 RPG in 5 games. With no specific defender matchup data beyond a small sample of key defenders, the safest angle is to lean on his stable defensive production rather than chase a big scoring spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

7.0(↑ from 4.9)

RPG

5.8(↑ from 4.5)

Stocks

2.6(↑ from 1.7)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The opponent profile shows a 120.34 defensive rating, 100 pace, and 1.106 scoring suppression, while his head-to-head line is modest at 5.4 PPG and 5.4 RPG across 5 games.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Adem Bona▼	Points	3.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	4	✓
Adem Bona▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	8	✓
Adem Bona▼	Assists	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	50%	0	✓
Adem Bona▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✗
Adem Bona▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	74%HIGH	1/2	70%	2	✓
Adem Bona▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	69%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✓
Adem Bona▼	P+R	7.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	12	✓
Adem Bona▼	P+A	3.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	4	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA14UNDER17%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x7/1839%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+A8UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x6/1833%▼

AST1UNDER52%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)5/1828%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

FTA2UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)5/1828%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/1844%▼

P+R12UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x7/1839%▼

PTS6UNDER3%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x7/1839%▼

REB5UNDER14%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x7/1839%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

BLK1UNDER46%gbt_blocksAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x5/1828%▼

FTM1UNDER23%gbtAvoid (7/20)8/1844%▼

Featured Pick

Adem Bona

Blocks OVER 0.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge on the board because Bona averages 1.3 BPG for the season and 1.6 BPG over his last 5. The 0.5 line leaves plenty of margin, and his defensive production has been the most stable part of his profile.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Smith	2	6	6	33%	50%
Nikola Vučević	2	2	4	50%	50%
Nick Richards	1	2	0	0%	0%
Guerschon Yabusele	1	1	6	100%	150%
Patrick Williams	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 3.562%MEDIUM

He is averaging 4.9 PPG on the season and 7.0 PPG over his last 5, so 3.5 is a low threshold. The main caution is volatility, but his recent minutes increase to 20.2 MPG supports clearing this number.

reboundsOVER 3.564%MEDIUM

Bona is at 4.5 RPG for the season, 5.8 RPG over the last 5, and 6.1 RPG over the last 10. Even with regression from the hot stretch, 3.5 remains below both his season and recent baseline.

assistsUNDER 0.570%HIGH

His season average is only 0.4 APG, with 0.8 APG in the last 5 and 0.9 APG in the last 10. This is a low-usage passing profile, and the season mean still points to under.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 SPG on the season but 1.0 SPG over the last 5 and 0.8 SPG over the last 10. The over is supported by recent form, though the season baseline keeps confidence moderate.

blocksOVER 0.574%HIGH

Blocks are one of his strongest categories at 1.3 BPG for the season and 1.6 BPG over the last 5. A 0.5 line is well below his normal production.

stocksOVER 1.569%MEDIUM

He averages 1.72 stocks per game on the season and 2.6 over the last 5. This is one of the cleaner ways to capture his defensive impact without needing high scoring volume.

prOVER 7.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds total is 9.4, and recent form is even stronger at 12.8 over the last 5. The combo is still somewhat volatile, but the line is light relative to his current production.

paOVER 3.555%MEDIUM

He averages 5.3 points plus assists on the season and 7.8 over the last 5. The assist piece is tiny, so this is mostly a points-driven play, but the line is still accessible.

timelineOVER 3.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Bona’s minutes are trending up, but the prop board is still cautious on his scoring

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

OVER 3.5 PTS