AI Model:

Collin Sexton▼

CHI · SF

PPG

14.6

RPG

2.1

APG

3.3

L5 PPG

21.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+6.6

14.6

21.2

RPG+0.9

2.1

3.0

APG+0.1

3.3

3.4

SPG+0.2

1.0

1.2

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

OVER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

10.5

NYK

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs NYK: 8 pts

CHA

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs CHA: 10 pts

POR

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs POR: 10 pts

MIL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIL: 22 pts

OKC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs OKC: 20 pts

PHX

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs PHX: 30 pts

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 28 pts

TOR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs TOR: 14 pts

CLE

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CLE: 9 pts

HOU

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs HOU: 25 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 10.5STAKE

68%

AST

UNDER 3.5STAKE

62%

REB

OVER 1.5STAKE

64%

3PM

OVER 1.5

63%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

60%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

58%

UNDER 2

61%

P+A

OVER 13.5STAKE

60%

P+R

OVER 12.5STAKE

66%

UNDER 0

72%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.1

18.0

RPG

1.8

3.2

APG

2.1

2.7

vs PHI (H2H)9 games

PPG

20.4

RPG

3.0

APG

4.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jamal Shead	5	12	63%	+1.7%	medium
Cason Wallace	4	9	0%	-48.3%	medium
AJ Green	5	9	38%	-23.3%	medium
Gary Trent Jr.	5	9	0%

Sexton’s usage boost is real, but the scoring line is still inflated

Collin Sexton has been trending upward in the short term, with 21.2 PPG over his last 5 games compared to 14.6 PPG on the season, but the last-20 sample matches the season average at 14.6 PPG and keeps the broader projection grounded. His minutes have also been steadier lately at 24.6 in the last 5 versus 22.8 for the season, and the absences on his team, especially Isaac Okoro doubtful and Zach Collins out, support a slightly larger role. The matchup is not especially clean for a scoring over: Philadelphia’s defense is middling overall, but the market has already pushed his points line to 9.5/10.5, which is far below his season baseline, so the safer angle is on broader production with caution on overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.2(↑ from 14.6)

APG

3.4(→ from 3.3)

RPG

3.0(↑ from 2.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available, so the clearest factor is the team context and opponent profile. Philadelphia has a 116.15 defensive rating and a 0.164 scoring suppression mark, while Sexton’s team is also missing multiple rotation pieces, which can help his usage but does not remove the overall scoring resistance.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Actual	Result
Collin Sexton▼	Points	10.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	60%	16	✓
Collin Sexton▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	80%	4	✗
Collin Sexton▼	Rebounds	1.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	70%	1	✗
Collin Sexton▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	80%	1	✗
Collin Sexton▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	70%	1	✓
Collin Sexton▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	50%	1	✓
Collin Sexton▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	80%	1	✓
Collin Sexton▼	P+A	13.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	60%	20	✓
Collin Sexton▼	P+R	12.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	70%	17	✓
Collin Sexton▼	Double-Double	0	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PRA29.5UNDER12%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 7x3/2015%+34.0% edge▼

PTS22.5UNDER15%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x4/2020%+23.9% edge▼

AST3.5UNDER58%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x4/2020%+36.5% edge▼

P+R19.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 6x11/2055%▼

P+A19.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)11/2055%▼

REB3.5UNDER13%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)3/2015%+28.9% edge▼

3PA6UNDER10%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

R+A5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

STL1UNDER36%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

FTM2UNDER22%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

FTA2UNDER10%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

3PM2.5UNDER18%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Collin Sexton

Points OVER 10.5MEDIUM

This is below both his 14.6 season average and his 14.6 last-20 average, so the floor is reasonable even with the over-lean caution. The recent 21.2 PPG surge and added team absences support the over, but the last-5 spike is still above his normal baseline, so this is not a high-confidence play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tyrese Maxey	1	8	8	20%	30%
VJ Edgecombe	2	4	5	100%	150%
Justin Edwards	2	2	6	67%	100%
Quentin Grimes	2	2	3	33%	50%
Dominick Barlow	3	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 10.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 14.6 PPG and even his last-20 is 14.6, so 10.5 is below his normal scoring level. The last-5 surge to 21.2 PPG supports the over, though recent volatility keeps confidence moderate.

assistsUNDER 3.562%MEDIUM

He averages 3.3 APG on the season and 2.5 over the last 10, with only 3.4 over the last 5. The market line at 3.5 is slightly above his season mean and recent form, making the under the more conservative side.

reboundsOVER 1.564%MEDIUM

Sexton has cleared 1.5 rebounds comfortably on most recent samples, with 2.1 RPG season-long and 3.0 RPG over the last 5. The line is low relative to his average, even with normal variance.

threesOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.52 made threes per game on the season and 2.6 over the last 5, so the baseline supports at least 2 attempts at clearing 1.5. The recent jump in volume is a positive sign, though the line is close enough to keep confidence moderate.

stealsOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 SPG on the season and 1.2 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low threshold. Stocks have also been serviceable at 1.11 season-wide.

stocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

His combined season average for steals and blocks is 1.11, which sits below 1.5. Recent stocks are 1.4 over the last 10 and 1.2 over the last 5, leaving the under as the more reliable side.

turnoversUNDER 261%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rates are manageable at 1.7 over the last 10 and 1.0 over the last 5, suggesting he is not forcing the issue excessively. With the role increase, the number can rise, but the current form still leans under 2.0.

paOVER 13.560%MEDIUM

Points plus assists is supported by his 14.6 PPG and 3.3 APG season averages, and he has averaged 17.9 PA combined. The line is reasonable, but the scoring base alone makes a modest over playable.

prOVER 12.566%MEDIUM

His season scoring plus rebounding average is 16.7, and recent scoring has climbed to 21.2 PPG with 3.0 RPG over the last 5. That gives a solid cushion over 12.5 despite normal variance.

double_doubleUNDER 072%HIGH

He is not close to double-double territory with season marks of 14.6 PPG and 2.1 RPG, plus only 3.3 APG. He would need an extreme outlier in multiple categories to get there.

timelineOVER 10.5 PTS