AI Model:

Jalen Smith—

CHI · PF

PPG

10.3

RPG

6.9

APG

1.3

L5 PPG

12.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.5

10.3

12.8

RPG-0.7

6.9

6.2

APG-0.1

1.3

1.2

SPG-0.3

0.5

0.2

BPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

TOR

2026-02-05

2026-02-05 vs TOR: 13 pts

TOR

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs TOR: 9 pts

DET

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs DET: 15 pts

NYK

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs NYK: 12 pts

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 4 pts

GSW

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs GSW: 12 pts

LAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs LAL: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs MEM: 13 pts

TOR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs TOR: 10 pts

HOU

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs HOU: 15 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5STAKE

74%

REB

UNDER 8.5STAKE

71%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

83%

3PM

OVER 1.5STAKE

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

67%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

62%

P+R

UNDER 20.5STAKE

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.2

12.5

RPG

7.2

8.2

APG

1.1

1.6

vs PHI (H2H)15 games

PPG

10.8

RPG

4.8

APG

0.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Karl-Anthony Towns	3	11	33%	-14.5%	medium
Nic Claxton	2	10	75%	+27.2%	low
Jabari Smith Jr.	2	9	63%	+2.2%	low
Danny Wolf	2	8	50%

Jalen Smith’s role keeps his floor steady, but the scoring line looks a touch rich

Jalen Smith is averaging 10.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG, and 1.3 APG on the season, with his last 5 ticking up to 12.8 PPG and 26.8 MPG. That recent scoring bump is a bit above his season baseline, so regression risk matters here, especially with the OVER bias warning in mind. His rebound profile is steadier than his points, while his assist volume remains modest and high-variance. Philadelphia’s defense context is not especially soft for scoring, and his head-to-head line of 10.8 PPG and 4.8 RPG vs this opponent comes in below some of the current market numbers.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.8(↑ from 10.3)

RPG

6.2(→ from 6.9)

APG

1.2(→ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

He faces a Philadelphia defense with a 116.15 defensive rating and 0.164 scoring suppression. The key defender data is limited, but Joel Embiid is listed with 15.7 minutes and 31 points allowed, so there is no specific defender matchup data that clearly boosts Smith's outlook.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Smith▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	30%	0	✓
Jalen Smith▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	70%	1	✓
Jalen Smith▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	83%HIGH	1/2	60%	0	✓
Jalen Smith▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✗
Jalen Smith▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
Jalen Smith▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Jalen Smith▼	P+R	20.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓

ML Scout Analysis

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x8/1942%▼

P+R20OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)10/1953%▼

P+A13.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)10/1953%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Smith

Assists UNDER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge because Smith’s season mark is 1.3 APG, his last 5 is 1.2, and his last 10 is 1.2. Even with some recent minutes growth, his passing volume has not shown enough lift to justify an over on a 1.5 line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Adem Bona	2	6	0	0%	0%
Jabari Walker	1	4	0	0%	0%
Paul George	2	3	6	100%	150%
Dominick Barlow	2	2	0	0%	0%
Joel Embiid	3	1	6	67%	100%

pointsUNDER 11.574%HIGH

His season mean is 10.3 PPG, below this 11.5 line, and his vs-opponent scoring history is 10.8 PPG across 15 games. The recent 12.8 PPG in the last 5 is a small uptick, but it sits above his baseline and is vulnerable to regression.

reboundsUNDER 8.571%HIGH

He averages 6.9 RPG on the season and 6.5 RPG over the last 10, both below 8.5. His recent spike is not enough to justify crossing a line this high without a stronger minutes or matchup catalyst.

assistsUNDER 1.583%HIGH

Smith is at just 1.3 APG for the season and 1.2 APG over the last 5 and last 10. With low assist volume and limited growth in the recent sample, the under is the cleaner side.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.55 threes per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 5, so 1.5 is right in his range. This is still volatile, but the recent volume of 1.8 FG3M per game supports a slight lean over.

blocksOVER 0.567%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 BPG on the season and 0.7 over the last 20, which is comfortably above the 0.5 threshold. His recent game log also includes multiple block events, giving this prop a stable baseline.

stocksUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.25 and his last 10 is 1.4, both below 1.5. The variance is notable, so this is not a high-confidence play, but the under fits the season profile.

prUNDER 20.564%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 17.2 using 10.3 PPG and 6.9 RPG, while the recent form still leaves room below 20.5. Combo props carry extra variance, so this stays a moderate-confidence under.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS