AI Model:

Joel Embiid▼

PHI · C

PPG

26.4

RPG

7.3

APG

3.8

L5 PPG

29.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.6

26.4

29.0

RPG+0.3

7.3

7.6

APG+0.6

3.8

4.4

SPG0.0

0.6

BPG-0.3

1.1

0.8

UNDER 28.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

28.5

IND

2026-01-19

2026-01-19 vs IND: 30 pts

NYK

2026-01-24

2026-01-24 vs NYK: 38 pts

MIL

2026-01-27

2026-01-27 vs MIL: 29 pts

SAC

2026-01-29

2026-01-29 vs SAC: 37 pts

NOP

2026-01-31

2026-01-31 vs NOP: 40 pts

LAC

2026-02-02

2026-02-02 vs LAC: 24 pts

LAL

2026-02-05

2026-02-05 vs LAL: 35 pts

PHX

2026-02-07

2026-02-07 vs PHX: 33 pts

IND

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs IND: 27 pts

MIA

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs MIA: 26 pts

Over 28.5

Under 28.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 28.5STAKE

58%

REB

UNDER 9.5STAKE

66%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

61%

3PM

UNDER 1.5STAKE

56%

BLK

UNDER 1.5STAKE

72%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

55%

OVER 2.5

60%

P+R

UNDER 38.5STAKE

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

31.3

28.1

RPG

8.2

7.3

APG

4.0

4.5

vs CHI (H2H)14 games

PPG

30.1

RPG

11.3

APG

4.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jay Huff	3	15	55%	-8.8%	medium
Bam Adebayo	2	13	64%	+8.3%	low
Jarrett Allen	2	12	67%	+17.9%	low
Onyeka Okongwu	2	11	56%

Embiid’s scoring edge is strong, but questionable status adds some volatility

Joel Embiid has been producing at an elite level, with 26.4 PPG on the season and 31.9 PPG over his last 10 games, though his overall trend is marked down and he is listed as questionable with a right oblique issue. This matchup is favorable on paper: he has averaged 30.1 PPG and 11.3 RPG in 14 games vs this opponent, and the opponent’s defense has a 120.34 defensive rating. The main caution is his injury status and the fact that his season rebounding base is only 7.3 RPG, so the most reliable angle is scoring rather than heavier combo exposure.

Stat Trends

PPG

29.0(↑ from 26.4)

RPG

7.6(→ from 7.3)

APG

4.4(↑ from 3.8)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and no specific defender matchup data should be assumed beyond that. The opponent’s defense carries a 120.34 defensive rating, and Embiid has already averaged 30.1 PPG and 11.3 RPG in 14 games vs this opponent.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Joel Embiid▼	Points	28.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	30%		35	✗
Joel Embiid▼	Rebounds	9.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	8.5→9.5	6	✓
Joel Embiid▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	FLIP	7	✓
Joel Embiid▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	FLIP	3	✗
Joel Embiid▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	80%		1	✓
Joel Embiid▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	FLIP	1	✗
Joel Embiid▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	40%	2.5→3	3	✓
Joel Embiid▼	P+R	38.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	37.5→38.5	41	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS26.5OVER2%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x14/2070%+19.0% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.440; Scorecard changed +5.0▼

P+A33.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

P+R37.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

AST4.5UNDER17%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%+9.0% edge▼

PRA40.5UNDER10%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

REB7.5UNDER22%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA8.5UNDER6%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A12UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

BLK1.5UNDER77%gbt_blocksAvoid (6/20)5/2025%+7.1% edge▼

3PM1.5UNDER2%gbt_three_pmAvoid (6/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.104; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

FTM8UNDER35%gbtAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

3PA4UNDER11%gbtAvoid (5/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Joel Embiid

Points UNDER 28.5MEDIUM

The best available points number is above his 26.4 season average, and his injury status adds uncertainty. While his recent scoring has been strong, the 28.5 line is still asking for more than his season baseline, so the under is the more conservative play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Nikola Vučević	2	7	6	50%	50%
Isaac Okoro	3	4	5	40%	50%
Zach Collins	1	3	4	50%	50%
Matas Buzelis	3	3	8	38%	50%
Josh Giddey	3	3	3	17%	25%

pointsUNDER 28.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 26.4 PPG, below 28.5, and his last-20 scoring is 29.7 with a down trend plus questionable injury status. Even with strong recent form, the market is asking for a number above his season baseline.

reboundsUNDER 9.566%MEDIUM

He averages 7.3 RPG on the season and 7.8 RPG over his last 20, both well below 9.5. His matchup history is strong, but the rebound line is still inflated relative to his normal production.

assistsOVER 3.561%MEDIUM

His season average is 3.8 APG and his last-10 is 4.8 APG, so 3.5 is slightly below his typical output. The standard deviation is 1.75, so there is some variance, but the line is workable.

threesUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.28 made threes on the season and 1.8 over the last 5, which is above baseline but still not enough to make 1.5 a strong over at this price. The recent uptick is noted, but the season mean remains below the line.

blocksUNDER 1.572%HIGH

He averages 1.1 blocks per game on the season and 0.8 over his last 5, both below 1.5. Blocks are volatile, and the season standard is not high enough to justify an over.

stocksOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.69 and his last-20 is 1.4, so this sits near his normal range. The category is volatile, so confidence stays modest.

turnoversOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

He is averaging 2.6 turnovers over his last 10 and 3.1 over his last 20, which points toward the over if the line is 2.5. His usage and playmaking load keep turnovers elevated.

prUNDER 38.563%MEDIUM

His season point-rebound base does not support this number cleanly: 26.4 PPG plus 7.3 RPG equals 33.7, and even his recent 31.9 plus 8.3 equals 40.2 but comes with regression risk. Combo props have been less reliable overall, so the season baseline matters more here.

timelineUNDER 28.5 PTS