AI Model:

Josh Giddey▼

CHI · PG

PPG

17.4

RPG

8.4

APG

9.2

L5 PPG

13.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.6

17.4

13.8

RPG-0.6

8.4

7.8

APG+2.4

9.2

11.6

SPG+0.7

1.1

1.8

BPG+0.4

0.4

0.8

UNDER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

17.5

MIL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIL: 20 pts

OKC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs OKC: 14 pts

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 15 pts

GSW

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs GSW: 21 pts

LAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs LAL: 27 pts

LAC

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs LAC: 20 pts

MEM

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs MEM: 16 pts

TOR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs TOR: 9 pts

CLE

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CLE: 9 pts

HOU

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs HOU: 15 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 17.5STAKE

82%

REB

OVER 7.5STAKE

66%

AST

OVER 7.5STAKE

70%

3PM

OVER 2.5STAKE

58%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

61%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

63%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

67%

OVER 3.5

59%

P+R

OVER 25.5STAKE

57%

P+A

OVER 25.5STAKE

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.7

18.6

RPG

6.4

9.6

APG

8.3

11.8

vs PHI (H2H)11 games

PPG

15.7

RPG

8.5

APG

7.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylon Tyson	4	15	64%	+19.7%	medium
Dyson Daniels	2	14	29%	-16.0%	low
OG Anunoby	4	14	77%	+16.9%	medium
Andrew Nembhard	3	13	46%

Giddey’s all-around floor is strong, but points lean under

Josh Giddey is coming in with elite all-around volume, but his recent scoring has cooled to 13.8 PPG over the last 5 and 16.6 over the last 10 versus a 17.4 season average. The assist and rebound numbers remain strong — 11.6 APG and 7.8 RPG over the last 5 — while his minutes have climbed to 35.2 MPG, keeping his floor intact. This matchup shows a tougher scoring environment with Philadelphia’s opponent scoring suppression at 0.164, and his head-to-head line is also softer than his season production at 15.73 PPG and 7.27 APG across 11 games. The best edges here are on the under side for points, while rebounds remain playable if you want a secondary angle.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.8(↓ from 17.4)

RPG

7.8(↓ from 8.4)

APG

11.6(↑ from 9.2)

Stocks

2.6(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

Philadelphia’s opponent profile shows a 116.15 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of 0.164, which makes points a less attractive side than his playmaking or rebound paths. For defender data, there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the safer read is to lean on the team-level profile.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Josh Giddey▼	Points	17.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	1/2	60%	17.5→18.5	23	✗
Josh Giddey▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		9	✓
Josh Giddey▼	Assists	7.5	OVER	70%HIGH	2/2	90%		12	✓
Josh Giddey▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		3	✓
Josh Giddey▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	90%		0	✗
Josh Giddey▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	50%	FLIP	1	✗
Josh Giddey▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	—	70%		1	✗
Josh Giddey▼	Turnovers	3.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	—	50%	2.5→3.5	4	✓
Josh Giddey▼	P+R	25.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	—	32	✓
Josh Giddey▼	P+A	25.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		35	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R22OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A24OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

R+A17.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x12/2060%▼

Featured Pick

Josh Giddey

Points UNDER 17.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season mean is 17.4, his last 5 are down to 13.8, and the value data strongly favors the under at 17.5. The matchup context also leans against an easy scoring night, making this the most reliable prop on the board.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Quentin Grimes	3	8	5	67%	83%
Dominick Barlow	2	5	5	100%	100%
Kelly Oubre Jr.	1	4	0	0%	0%
Jabari Walker	3	4	0	0%	0%
Jared McCain	2	4	2	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 17.582%HIGH

Season scoring is 17.4 PPG, but the last 5 are down to 13.8 and the value data shows a strong under edge at 17.5. Philadelphia’s scoring suppression of 0.164 also points to a tougher scoring spot.

reboundsOVER 7.566%MEDIUM

He averages 8.4 RPG on the season and 9.5 RPG over the last 10, with 7.8 RPG over the last 5 still clearing this line. Rebound volume is strong enough to support an over lean despite some volatility.

assistsOVER 7.570%HIGH

Giddey is at 9.2 APG for the season and 11.6 APG over the last 5, so this line sits below both his season and recent production. His recent minutes at 35.2 MPG support continued playmaking volume.

threesOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

He is at 2.02 made threes per game on the season and 3.1 over the last 10, which keeps this in play. The recent spike is helpful, but the standard deviation is sizable, so confidence stays moderate.

stealsOVER 0.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals per game on the season and 1.8 over the last 5, comfortably above the 0.5 line. The recent defensive activity supports this over.

blocksUNDER 0.563%MEDIUM

He averages just 0.4 blocks per game on the season, so the under is the cleaner side even with 0.8 over the last 5. The season mean remains below the line.

stocksOVER 1.567%MEDIUM

He averages 1.48 stocks on the season and 2.2 over the last 10, with 2.6 over the last 5. The recent form supports an over lean, though the season mean sits near the cutoff.

turnoversOVER 3.559%MEDIUM

He has 3.6 turnovers over the last 10 and 3.6 over the last 20, indicating persistent ball-security pressure. His higher assist load also tends to push turnover volume up.

prOVER 25.557%MEDIUM

Season averages of 17.4 points and 8.4 rebounds sum to 25.8, but this combo is volatile and the recent scoring dip adds risk. Confidence is capped because combo props are inherently higher variance.

paOVER 25.568%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists average is 26.6, and recent assist production has surged to 11.6 APG. The line is below his normal combined output, but scoring regression keeps confidence moderate.

timelineUNDER 17.5 PTS