AI Model:

Matas Buzelis▼

CHI · SF

PPG

16.3

RPG

5.6

APG

2.0

L5 PPG

20.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.1

16.3

20.4

RPG+1.2

5.6

6.8

APG-1.0

2.0

1.0

SPG+0.3

0.7

1.0

BPG-0.1

1.5

1.4

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

19.5

MIL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIL: 20 pts

OKC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs OKC: 11 pts

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 20 pts

GSW

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs GSW: 41 pts

LAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs LAL: 22 pts

LAC

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs LAC: 18 pts

MEM

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs MEM: 29 pts

TOR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs TOR: 19 pts

CLE

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CLE: 13 pts

HOU

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs HOU: 23 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

REB

OVER 5.5BETMGM

55%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

3PM

OVER 2.5

61%

BLK

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

STL+BLK

UNDER 3.5

68%

PRA

UNDER 23.5STAKE

64%

P+A

UNDER 19.5STAKE

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.5

21.8

RPG

6.1

6.4

APG

1.8

2.2

vs PHI (H2H)6 games

PPG

9.2

RPG

4.2

APG

1.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Mikal Bridges	4	16	60%	+6.7%	medium
AJ Green	4	13	50%	-13.3%	medium
Ausar Thompson	3	12	31%	-15.8%	medium
Brandon Ingram	3	11	58%

Hot scoring run, but the market still leans under

Matas Buzelis is in strong recent form, averaging 20.4 PPG over his last 5 and 21.6 PPG over his last 10, with his minutes up to 33.0 and 32.7 in those windows. That said, his season baseline is still 16.3 PPG, and his vs-opponent history is much quieter at 9.17 PPG across 6 games. Philadelphia has a 116.15 defensive rating with a 0.164 scoring suppression mark, so the combination of a hotter recent stretch and a tougher scoring environment points to a more cautious projection than the last-5 suggests.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.4(↑ from 16.3)

RPG

6.8(↑ from 5.6)

APG

1.0(↓ from 2.0)

3PM

3.4(↑ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

Paul George, Kelly Oubre Jr., and Quentin Grimes are the only listed key defenders, with no specific defender matchup data beyond their limited minutes and points allowed. Philadelphia’s team defense shows a 116.15 defensive rating and 0.164 scoring suppression, which is the main matchup lean from the provided data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Matas Buzelis▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	2/2	40%	16.5→19.5	18	✓
Matas Buzelis▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	FLIP	8	✓
Matas Buzelis▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	70%		2	✓
Matas Buzelis▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		4	✓
Matas Buzelis▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	40%		1	✓
Matas Buzelis▼	STL+BLK	3.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	70%		1	✓
Matas Buzelis▼	PRA	23.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	—	28	✗
Matas Buzelis▼	P+A	19.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	20%		20	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A22OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

P+R27UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

R+A9UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Matas Buzelis

Points UNDER 19.5HIGH

This is the strongest value on the board: DraftKings shows the best side as UNDER with a 22.7% edge, and our model gives the under a 76.4% probability. His season average is 16.3 PPG, his head-to-head mark is only 9.17 PPG across 6 games, and the recent hot streak looks inflated relative to the longer baseline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Paul George	2	6	3	20%	30%
Dominick Barlow	2	6	7	50%	50%
Quentin Grimes	3	5	2	0%	0%
Kelly Oubre Jr.	1	4	11	83%	92%
VJ Edgecombe	3	3	8	60%	60%

pointsUNDER 19.582%HIGH

The value data shows the best side is UNDER at 19.5 with a 22.7% edge on DraftKings and our model probability of 76.4% for the under. His season mean is 16.29 PPG, and his vs-opponent average is only 9.17 PPG across 6 games.

reboundsOVER 5.555%MEDIUM

His season average is 5.59 RPG and he is at 6.8 RPG over the last 5 and 6.6 over the last 10, so the over is live if his minutes stay in the low-30s. Confidence stays modest because rebounds are near the middle of his range and the market is mixed.

assistsUNDER 2.571%HIGH

He averages 2.01 APG for the season but only 1.0 APG over his last 5, and his recent assist production has not matched the elevated minutes. The season mean and recent mean both sit below 2.5, making the under the cleaner side.

threesOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

He averages 2.29 threes per game on the season and 3.4 over both his last 5 and last 10, with 3.2 in away games. The recent volume supports the over, though his 1.5 B2B mean and variance keep confidence moderate.

blocksUNDER 1.574%HIGH

His season average is 1.5 blocks, but the line is still high at 1.5 and his recent block rate is volatile rather than consistently above the mark. With no strong edge from the provided value data, the under is safer on a number this elevated.

stocksUNDER 3.568%MEDIUM

He averages 2.22 stocks on the season and 2.5 over the last 10, but the combined stat is volatile with a 1.65 season standard deviation and 1.91 recent standard deviation. That profile makes 3.5 a tough over without a stronger pricing edge.

praUNDER 23.564%MEDIUM

His season baseline projects below this number when you combine 16.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.0 assists, and combo props carry extra variance. Recent scoring is up, but the assist drop and historical vs-opponent scoring pull the projection down.

paUNDER 19.560%MEDIUM

His season 16.3 PPG plus 2.0 APG lands at 18.3, below the line, and recent assists have fallen to 1.0 over the last 5. The combo is especially sensitive to scoring regression from the 20+ PPG stretch.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS