AI Model:

Paul George▲

PHI · SF

PPG

16.2

RPG

5.2

APG

3.7

L5 PPG

17.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.2

16.2

17.4

RPG-1.0

5.2

4.2

APG+0.5

3.7

4.2

SPG+0.4

1.4

1.8

BPG-0.5

0.5

0.0

OVER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

NYK

2026-01-03

2026-01-03 vs NYK: 15 pts

DEN

2026-01-05

2026-01-05 vs DEN: 8 pts

WAS

2026-01-07

2026-01-07 vs WAS: 23 pts

ORL

2026-01-09

2026-01-09 vs ORL: 18 pts

TOR

2026-01-12

2026-01-12 vs TOR: 15 pts

CLE

2026-01-14

2026-01-14 vs CLE: 17 pts

CLE

2026-01-16

2026-01-16 vs CLE: 14 pts

NYK

2026-01-24

2026-01-24 vs NYK: 9 pts

MIL

2026-01-27

2026-01-27 vs MIL: 32 pts

SAC

2026-01-29

2026-01-29 vs SAC: 15 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 16.5BETMGM

58%

REB

UNDER 5.5BETMGM

63%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

76%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

STL

OVER 1.5STAKE

60%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

STL+BLK

UNDER 3

61%

P+R

UNDER 20.5STAKE

58%

P+A

UNDER 20.5STAKE

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.2

16.8

RPG

4.3

6.2

APG

3.9

4.0

vs CHI (H2H)10 games

PPG

19.8

RPG

6.4

APG

5.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kyle Kuzma	3	10	41%	-7.4%	medium
OG Anunoby	2	10	79%	+13.3%	low
Bobby Portis	3	9	50%	+2.4%	medium
Dyson Daniels	2	7	50%

Paul George’s scoring is steady, but the assist market looks shakier

Paul George is averaging 16.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 3.7 APG on the season, with his last-5 ticking slightly up to 17.4 PPG and 4.2 APG on 32.2 MPG. The recent form is solid but not explosive enough to force an over on most inflated combo lines, especially with his last-20 sitting very close to season level across the board. Against Chicago, his history is stronger than his baseline — 19.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 5.1 APG in 10 games — but the current board is still pricing him as a moderate contributor rather than a ceiling play.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.4(↑ from 16.2)

RPG

4.2(↓ from 5.2)

APG

4.2(↑ from 3.7)

Stocks

1.8(→ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

The provided opponent defense data shows a 120.34 defensive rating, pace of 100, scoring suppression of 1.106, and three suppression of 0.951. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the safest read is that the environment is playable but not especially soft.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Paul George▼	Points	16.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	14.5→16.5	28	✓
Paul George▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		6	✗
Paul George▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	1/2	40%	FLIP	4	✓
Paul George▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%		6	✗
Paul George▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	70%		4	✓
Paul George▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	40%		1	✓
Paul George▼	STL+BLK	3	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	90%		5	✗
Paul George▼	P+R	20.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		34	✗
Paul George▼	P+A	20.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	—	32	✗

ML Scout Analysis

AST3.5OVER8%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x12/2060%▼

PRA27.5OVER24%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge changed +0.041▼

3PM2.5OVER8%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 6x12/2060%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTA2OVER3%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+A23UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x7/2035%▼

STL1.5UNDER17%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x12/2060%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

R+A9.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

P+R24.5UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

PTS17.5UNDER5%gbt_pointsAvoid (6/20)OVER 6x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.087; Scorecard changed -4.0▼

REB5.5UNDER8%gbt_reboundsAvoid (6/20)8/2040%▼

3PA7UNDER18%gbtAvoid (5/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM2UNDER12%gbtAvoid (5/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Paul George

Assists UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the strongest value on the board: his season mark is 3.7 APG, his last-10 is 4.4, and multiple books price the under as the best side. The value data is especially strong, with a 12.4% edge at betmgm and a 10.9% edge at draftkings, making this the cleanest recommendation.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Matas Buzelis	2	4	2	0%	0%
Josh Giddey	2	4	2	50%	50%
Jalen Smith	2	4	2	25%	25%
Isaac Okoro	2	3	4	67%	67%
Tre Jones	2	2	4	100%	100%

pointsOVER 16.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 16.2 PPG and his recent mean is 16.6, so 16.5 is right around his current scoring level. The last-5 at 17.4 and the 19.8 PPG vs opponent history support a slight over lean, but this is still close enough to the mean to keep confidence moderate.

reboundsUNDER 5.563%MEDIUM

He is at 5.2 RPG for the season and 4.8 over the last-10, both below 5.5. Even with a strong 6.4 RPG in 10 games vs this opponent, the season and recent averages point slightly under.

assistsUNDER 4.576%HIGH

George averages 3.7 APG on the season and 4.4 over the last-10, which is still below 4.5. The value data also shows the under as the best side across multiple books, including a 12.4% edge at betmgm and a 10.9% edge at draftkings.

threesUNDER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.46 made threes per game, which is just under 2.5, and his recent 2.4 is not enough to create a strong over case. The variance is high, so this stays a modest under lean rather than a strong play.

stealsOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 steals on the season and 1.6 over the last-10, with 1.8 in the last-5. That recent uptick is enough to lean over 1.5, though the standard deviation is meaningful.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

His season block rate is 0.5 per game and his last-10 is 0.6, so this line is very playable on the over. The floor is decent, but the distribution still makes it a lower-confidence prop.

stocksUNDER 361%MEDIUM

He averages 1.9 stocks on the season and 2.2 over the last-10, but stock outcomes can swing heavily and the season baseline is still well short of 3.0. This is a safer under than chasing an elevated combo result.

prUNDER 20.558%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds are 21.4, but the rebounding profile is below the current 5.5 line and the total is not consistently clearing this mark. Because combo props carry extra variance, the under is the more conservative side.

paUNDER 20.564%MEDIUM

He combines for 19.9 P+A on the season, below 20.5, and the recent assist trend is only 4.4 over the last-10. The under remains the cleaner side even with his strong opponent history.

timelineOVER 16.5 PTS