AI Model:

Quentin Grimes▼

PHI · SG

PPG

14.1

RPG

3.7

APG

3.4

L5 PPG

24.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+10.5

14.1

24.6

RPG+0.9

3.7

4.6

APG+0.2

3.4

3.6

SPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

15.5

UTA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs UTA: 16 pts

ATL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ATL: 26 pts

CLE

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs CLE: 17 pts

MEM

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MEM: 23 pts

DET

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DET: 14 pts

BKN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BKN: 28 pts

POR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs POR: 31 pts

DEN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DEN: 12 pts

SAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAC: 27 pts

UTA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs UTA: 25 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

UNDER 3.5BETONLINEAG

66%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

STL

OVER 0.5

52%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

78%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

OVER 2

55%

PRA

UNDER 23.5

53%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.6

14.7

RPG

3.9

3.2

APG

1.7

3.5

vs CHI (H2H)11 games

PPG

8.0

RPG

3.2

APG

1.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Anfernee Simons	3	13	71%	+4.9%	medium
Duncan Robinson	4	10	75%	+4.9%	medium
Payton Pritchard	4	10	25%	-20.1%	medium
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	3	10	69%

Grimes’ scoring surge is real, but the matchup and history keep the ceiling in check

Quentin Grimes has been in strong recent form, averaging 24.6 PPG over his last 5 and 21.9 over his last 10, well above his 14.1 season average. That said, his season baseline is much lower than the hot streak, and his head-to-head history vs Chicago is only 8.0 PPG across 11 games. With 30.4 MPG on the season and 34.3 MPG in the last 10, volume is solid, but the current point line range is already pricing in some of the recent spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.6(↓ from 14.1)

RPG

4.6(↑ from 3.7)

APG

3.6(→ from 3.4)

Key Matchup

The opponent defense data shows a 120.34 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of 1.106. Chicago-specific defender data is limited to the provided key defenders, and there is no specific defender matchup data beyond those split samples.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Quentin Grimes▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	FLIP	13	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	2.5→3.5	6	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	FLIP	5	✗
Quentin Grimes▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	FLIP	1	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	60%		3	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	80%		3	✗
Quentin Grimes▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%		6	✗
Quentin Grimes▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%		1	✗
Quentin Grimes▼	PRA	23.5	UNDER	53%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	—	24	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA13.5UNDER14%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)15/2075%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.482; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

P+A18UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%▼

PTS13.5UNDER31%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x10/2050%▼

3PA4UNDER39%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%▼

REB4UNDER34%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

AST2UNDER14%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

3PM1UNDER2%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

FTA2.5UNDER15%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 6x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM2UNDER38%gbtAvoid (6/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Quentin Grimes

Assists UNDER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value spot in the data: his season mean is 3.44 APG, the last-20 is down to 2.9 APG, and the value props list the under as +EV with a 13.3% edge. It also avoids relying on the unsustainably hot scoring stretch, which is already well above his season baseline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Josh Giddey	3	6	14	75%	88%
Kevin Huerter	2	5	7	50%	58%
Matas Buzelis	3	5	5	40%	50%
Tre Jones	3	3	4	50%	50%
Coby White	1	2	2	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 15.558%MEDIUM

His 14.1 season scoring average is below this line, and his vs-opponent mark is just 8.0 PPG in 11 games. The last-5 spike to 24.6 is strong, but that is well above season level and a regression spot.

reboundsOVER 3.556%MEDIUM

He averages 3.7 RPG for the season and 4.5 over the last 10, with 4.6 RPG in the last 5. The line is aligned with his role, and recent minutes have been up at 34.3 MPG.

assistsUNDER 3.566%MEDIUM

His season average is 3.4 APG, but the last 20 drops to 2.9 APG and the home split is only 1.7 APG. The provided value data also flags the under as +EV with a 13.3% edge.

threesUNDER 1.554%MEDIUM

He is at 1.78 made threes per game on the season but only 1.3 over the last 10 and 1.3 over the last 5. The market is not giving much room, so the under is the more cautious side.

stealsOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 SPG on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, so clearing 0.5 is reasonable. Confidence stays modest because steals are volatile.

blocksUNDER 0.578%HIGH

He averages only 0.4 BPG on the season and 0.2 in the last 5 and last 10. That makes 0.5 a tough threshold to project over.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.25 and recent marks are 1.0 to 1.1, both below a 1.5 threshold. This is a higher-variance combo, so the under is safer.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

He is at 2.0 turnovers over the last 5 and 2.3 over the last 10, above his 1.9 last-20 mark. With expanded recent minutes and usage, 2-plus turnovers is live.

praUNDER 23.553%MEDIUM

His season baseline of 21.2 PRA is much closer to this range than the recent surge, but combo props carry extra variance. Given the over-bias warning, the under is the more conservative side.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS