AI Model:

Tre Jones—

CHI · SG

PPG

13.0

RPG

2.9

APG

5.4

L5 PPG

15.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.8

13.0

15.8

RPG+0.5

2.9

3.4

APG-1.2

5.4

4.2

SPG+0.5

1.3

1.8

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

13.5

OKC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs OKC: 15 pts

PHX

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs PHX: 21 pts

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 12 pts

GSW

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs GSW: 22 pts

LAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs LAL: 18 pts

LAC

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs LAC: 21 pts

MEM

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs MEM: 17 pts

TOR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs TOR: 6 pts

CLE

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CLE: 20 pts

HOU

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs HOU: 15 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

OVER 2.5BETONLINEAG

64%

AST

UNDER 5.5BETMGM

59%

3PM

OVER 0.5

57%

STL

OVER 0.5

61%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.9

17.5

RPG

2.7

3.5

APG

5.4

4.7

vs PHI (H2H)9 games

PPG

9.7

RPG

3.2

APG

4.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Brunson	4	17	47%	-13.1%	medium
Daniss Jenkins	3	15	60%	+4.8%	medium
Trae Young	3	12	54%	-12.3%	medium
Ryan Rollins	3	11	70%

Tre Jones brings steady usage, but the scoring line still looks a bit high

Tre Jones has been productive lately, averaging 15.8 PPG over his last 5 and 16.7 over his last 10, but his season mark is still 12.96 PPG. The sharpest edge in the data is on points: the best book line is 13.5, while the value model shows the UNDER as the preferred side with a 7.5% edge at DraftKings. His assist profile is solid at 5.38 APG season-long, yet recent form has dipped to 4.4 APG, and the available assist props do not show positive value. Rebounding is the cleanest plus-side statistical angle, with recent boards up to 3.4 from a 2.94 season average and a strong OVER edge at 2.5.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.8(↑ from 13.0)

APG

4.2(↓ from 5.4)

RPG

3.4(↑ from 2.9)

Stocks

2.0(↑ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

The data does not provide a specific defender matchup breakdown beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data. Philadelphia's opponent defense shows a 116.15 defensive rating, 100 pace, and 0.164 scoring suppression, which supports a more cautious scoring outlook.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Tre Jones▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	FLIP	15	✗
Tre Jones▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	FLIP	4	✓
Tre Jones▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		7	✗
Tre Jones▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%		0	✗
Tre Jones▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	0.5→1	0	✗
Tre Jones▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%		0	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS18.5UNDER2%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%Line moved +1.0; Value edge changed +0.080▼

AST6.5UNDER14%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)3/2015%+35.3% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Odds moved materially▼

PRA30.5UNDER7%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%+19.8% edgeNo material changes▼

P+R20.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)11/2055%▼

P+A21.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)12/2060%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

REB4.5UNDER21%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x5/2025%+11.8% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Line moved +1.0▼

Featured Pick

Tre Jones

Points UNDER 13.5HIGH

This is the strongest value on the board, with the DraftKings UNDER showing a 7.5% edge and 14.72 EV per 100. Tre Jones is close to the line, but his season average of 12.96 PPG is below 13.5, making the under the cleanest play despite the recent scoring bump.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
VJ Edgecombe	3	11	3	25%	38%
Tyrese Maxey	2	9	17	47%	57%
Quentin Grimes	3	5	4	67%	67%
Cameron Payne	1	2	3	100%	150%
Jared McCain	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 13.568%MEDIUM

Season mean is 12.96 PPG, and the value data shows the UNDER as the best side with a 7.5% edge at DraftKings. The recent 15.8 PPG form is above season level, but the sample suggests some regression risk.

reboundsOVER 2.564%MEDIUM

He averages 2.94 RPG on the season and 3.4 RPG over his last 5, both above the 2.5 line. Value data also flags the OVER with a 10.7% edge.

assistsUNDER 5.559%MEDIUM

Tre Jones is at 5.38 APG for the season but only 4.2 APG over the last 5, so the line sits above both recent and season form. The best available assist value still leans UNDER, though the edge is small.

threesOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.58 made threes per game on the season and has 0.9 over the last 10, which is enough to justify a low-volume over. Variance is high, so confidence stays moderate.

stealsOVER 0.561%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.3 SPG and he is at 1.8 SPG over the last 5, comfortably above a 0.5 threshold. The stocks trend is also supportive at 2.0 over the last 5.

stocksOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.45 stocks per game for the season and 2.0 over the last 5, putting this near the target range. Because the season mean is just under the line and variance is meaningful, confidence is only moderate.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS