AI Model:
PF
Trendon Watford▲
PHI · PF
PPG
6.9
RPG
3.5
APG
2.6
L5 PPG
11.2
Last 10 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG+4.3
6.9
11.2
RPG+0.9
3.5
4.4
APG+1.2
2.6
3.8
SPG+0.1
0.3
0.4
BPG+0.2
0.4
0.6
OVER 7.5 PTS
Last 10 games
2
Current Streak
2
Longest Streak
OVER
Streak Type
7.5
10
ATL
2026-03-07
2026-03-07 vs ATL: 10 pts
6
CLE
2026-03-09
2026-03-09 vs CLE: 6 pts
11
MEM
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs MEM: 11 pts
4
DET
2026-03-12
2026-03-12 vs DET: 4 pts
10
BKN
2026-03-14
2026-03-14 vs BKN: 10 pts
7
POR
2026-03-15
2026-03-15 vs POR: 7 pts
12
DEN
2026-03-17
2026-03-17 vs DEN: 12 pts
2
SAC
2026-03-19
2026-03-19 vs SAC: 2 pts
20
UTA
2026-03-21
2026-03-21 vs UTA: 20 pts
15
OKC
2026-03-23
2026-03-23 vs OKC: 15 pts
Over 7.5
Under 7.5
Last 10 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
OVER 7.5FANDUEL
62%
REB
OVER 3.5
56%
AST
OVER 2.5
57%
STL+BLK
UNDER 1.5
60%
Home vs Away
Home
Away
PPG
7.9
8.0
RPG
4.2
3.3
APG
2.8
2.5
vs CHI (H2H)8 games
PPG
10.6
RPG
3.9
APG
2.5
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerami Grant | 2 | 5 | 79% | +6.0% | low |
| Jaylon Tyson | 4 | 5 | 64% | -8.2% | medium |
| Jordan Walsh | 2 | 5 | 150% | +48.9% | low |
| Scottie Barnes | 3 | 5 | 33% |
Watford’s minutes bump keeps his scoring live, but the model leans cautious
Trendon Watford’s recent form is clearly up, with 11.2 PPG over his last 5 games compared to 6.9 PPG for the season, and his minutes have climbed from 17.1 season-long to 21.0 in that span. The matchup is not especially friendly on paper, as Chicago carries a 120.34 defensive rating and a 1.106 scoring suppression mark, which argues against chasing a big ceiling. Still, his 8-game history vs this opponent shows 10.625 PPG and 20.875 MPG, so he’s at least been productive in this spot. With his season baseline still well below the recent surge, I’d lean toward a more conservative projection overall.
Stat Trends
PPG
11.2(↑ from 6.9)
RPG
4.4(↑ from 3.5)
APG
3.8(↑ from 2.6)
Key Matchup
No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed Chicago players, and the opponent context points to a tougher scoring environment with a 120.34 defensive rating and 1.106 scoring suppression. Watford has averaged 10.625 PPG in 8 games vs this opponent, which helps offset the matchup somewhat, but not enough to push confidence into the high range.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trendon Watford▼ | Points | 7.5 | OVER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 4 | ✗ |
Trendon Watford▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 2 | ✗ |
Trendon Watford▼ | Assists | 2.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 1 | ✗ |
Trendon Watford▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 0 | ✓ |
ML Scout Analysis
P+A10.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)8/1747%▼
PRA14UNDER13%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)7/1741%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼
R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)7/1741%▼
P+R12UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)7/1741%▼
PTS7UNDER0%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)8/1747%▼
AST2UNDER16%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)8/1747%▼
REB3UNDER11%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)8/1747%▼
FTM1UNDER31%gbtAvoid (7/20)7/1741%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼
FTA1UNDER12%gbtAvoid (7/20)8/1747%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved HIGH to LOW▼
Featured Pick
Trendon Watford
Points OVER 7.5MEDIUM
This is the clearest value angle in the data: his recent scoring is 11.2 PPG over the last 5, and the provided value prop shows an 8.5% edge with 16.17 EV per 100 on the over. The main caution is that his season mean is still just 6.9 PPG, so the bet depends on the recent minutes/usage bump holding.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.