AI Model:

James Harden▲

CLE · PG

PPG

24.3

RPG

4.9

APG

8.0

L5 PPG

24.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.1

24.3

24.4

RPG+0.3

4.9

5.2

APG-0.2

8.0

7.8

SPG+0.3

1.1

1.4

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

21.5

DET

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DET: 18 pts

BOS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs BOS: 19 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 21 pts

ORL

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs ORL: 30 pts

DAL

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DAL: 17 pts

DAL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DAL: 13 pts

MIL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIL: 27 pts

CHI

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHI: 36 pts

NOP

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs NOP: 20 pts

ORL

2026-03-24

2026-03-24 vs ORL: 26 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

AST

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

76%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

STL

UNDER 1.5

63%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

OVER 3

58%

P+A

UNDER 32.5STAKE

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.2

23.0

RPG

4.1

5.7

APG

7.5

8.2

vs MIA (H2H)12 games

PPG

19.1

RPG

5.8

APG

8.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Cooper Flagg	4	16	60%	+16.0%	medium
Jaylen Wells	3	14	83%	+22.7%	medium
Dyson Daniels	2	12	0%	-44.0%	low
LeBron James	4	12	50%

Harden’s scoring volume is solid, but the market leans to the under

James Harden is averaging 24.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and 8.0 APG this season while playing 35 MPG, but his recent scoring has cooled to 22.7 PPG over the last 10 and 21.1 over the last 20. The matchup data points to a tougher scoring environment: his 12-game history vs this opponent is 19.1 PPG, below his season mark, and the opponent’s scoring suppression is listed at 0.43. With the home split at 18.2 PPG compared to 23.0 away, the under side on points and assists looks stronger than chasing an over.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.4(→ from 24.3)

APG

7.8(→ from 8.0)

RPG

5.2(↑ from 4.9)

Stocks

2.0(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available in the provided key_defenders list beyond Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, and Tyler Herro with minutes and points allowed. The only opponent context we can use is the strong scoring suppression number of 0.43 and his 19.1 PPG average across 12 games vs this opponent.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
James Harden▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	2/2	60%	21.5→23.5	18	✓
James Harden▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	FLIP	9	✗
James Harden▼	Assists	8.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	2/2	70%		7	✓
James Harden▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	2.5→3	3	✓
James Harden▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	80%		0	✓
James Harden▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	FLIP	1	✗
James Harden▼	Turnovers	3	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%		5	✓
James Harden▼	P+A	32.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		25	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R26UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)7/2035%▼

P+A28.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

R+A12.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

James Harden

Points UNDER 21.5HIGH

This is the clearest value spot in the data, with multiple books showing the UNDER as the best side and DraftKings listing a 11.9% edge. His season average is 24.3 PPG, but recent production is 22.7 over the last 10 and his history vs this opponent is only 19.1 PPG, which supports the under.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Andrew Wiggins	4	11	20	73%	91%
Davion Mitchell	4	10	5	40%	50%
Pelle Larsson	4	7	7	100%	150%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	4	6	5	22%	28%
Bam Adebayo	4	5	6	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 21.582%HIGH

His value-prop data shows the best side is UNDER at multiple books, including a 13.1% edge on FanDuel and 11.9% on DraftKings. Season scoring is 24.3 PPG, but his recent 10-game average is 22.7 and his head-to-head average vs this opponent is 19.1 PPG.

reboundsUNDER 5.560%MEDIUM

He averages 4.9 rebounds this season and 5.2 over the last 5, which is close to the line but still below 5.5 on season volume. The split data does not show a strong home boost, with 4.86 rebounds at home and 4.91 away.

assistsUNDER 8.576%HIGH

His season average is 8.0 APG, last 10 is 7.6, and the value data again favors the UNDER with a 10.7% edge at DraftKings. His season std is 2.44, but the recent std is lower at 1.56, supporting a tighter projection around the line.

threesOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

He averages 3.13 made threes per game this season and 3.4 over the last 5, so the volume clears 2.5. That said, the opponent’s three suppression is -0.986 and the line is not a clear value spot, so confidence stays modest.

stealsUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals this season and 0.8 over the last 10, which sits below the 1.5 line. The recent profile does not support a strong over case despite a 1.4 steals average over the last 5.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.54 stocks on the season and has been at 2.0 over the last 5, so the combined defensive counting stats are in play. Because the recent 10-game average is only 1.2, this remains a lower-confidence over.

turnoversOVER 358%MEDIUM

He is at 3.2 turnovers per game over the last 10 and 3.3 over the last 20, which supports an over on a projected 3.0 line. Recent games also show multiple 4+ turnover outings, including 5 and 6.

paUNDER 32.561%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists profile is 32.3 on the raw averages, while the market line is 32.5 and combo props carry more variance. The recent scoring dip and the opponent-specific scoring drop make the under the safer lean.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS