Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 2 | 18 | 67% | +2.5% | low |
| Joel Embiid | 2 | 17 | 48% | -18.0% | low |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | 3 | 16 | 40% | -24.2% | medium |
| Nikola Vučević | 3 | 16 | 53% |
Jarrett Allen is trending up offensively relative to his season line, with 19.8 PPG over the last 5 compared to 15.3 PPG for the season, while his last 10 rebounding average is 9.8 versus 8.5 season-long. That said, his season home scoring is just 15.0 PPG and this is a home game, so the scoring spike is not as supported by splits as the recent form suggests. The matchup data also points to a tougher scoring environment: the opponent defense lists a 0.43 scoring suppression, and Allen’s 17-game history vs this opponent is only 11.94 PPG. With the team on a back-to-back, his minutes and efficiency could be a little less stable, making conservative unders and modest overs more appealing than aggressive combo plays.
The available matchup data does include specific defender information, with Bam Adebayo listed at 49.8 minutes and 61 points allowed. Miami also shows a 0.43 scoring suppression, which is a meaningful headwind for scoring props, while Allen’s 17-game history vs this opponent is only 11.94 PPG.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jarrett Allen▼ | Points | 13.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% |
Jarrett Allen▼ | Rebounds | 9.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% |
Jarrett Allen▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | 1/2 | 90% |
Jarrett Allen▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% |
Jarrett Allen▼ | 3PM | 0.5 | UNDER | 98%HIGH | — | 100% |
Jarrett Allen▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 62%MEDIUM | — | 50% |
Jarrett Allen▼ | R+A | 11.5 | UNDER | 71%HIGH | 2/2 | 50% |
Jarrett Allen▼ | P+R | 23.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 10% |
This is the cleanest number on the board because Allen’s season average is 1.9 APG and his last 5 is only 1.4 APG. His home split is even lower at 0.9 APG, so 2.5 is a step too high unless the role changes sharply.
| medium |
| Rudy Gobert | 2 | 14 | 75% | +10.8% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kel'el Ware | 2 | 10 | 9 | 50% | 56% |
| Bam Adebayo | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0% |
| Nikola Jović | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 3 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% |
| Davion Mitchell | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season average is 15.3 PPG and the recent form is 19.8 PPG over the last 5, which clears 13.5 comfortably. The caution is that his home split is only 15.0 PPG and the opponent history is 11.94 PPG, so this is not a high-confidence over.
Allen’s season rebound average is 8.5 and his home split is 7.9 RPG, both below 9.5. Even though his last 10 is 9.8 RPG, the line is still a touch high relative to his baseline and the back-to-back adds some downside risk.
He averages 1.9 APG on the season and 1.4 APG over the last 5, with a home mark of just 0.9 APG. That is well below 2.5, and the recent role has not shown a meaningful assist spike.
Allen averages 0.9 BPG for the season and 1.1 BPG over the last 20, so 0.5 is a low bar. The volatility is real, but the profile supports at least one block more often than not.
He averages 0.02 made threes per game for the season and 0.0 over the last 5 and last 10. This is a near-lock under based on volume.
His season stocks average is 1.84 and his last 20 is 2.1, which supports clearing 1.5. The variance is moderate, but the baseline production is above the line.
Allen averages 10.4 rebounds plus assists on the season and 11.2 over the last 10, but the home split of 8.8 RPG plus 0.9 APG keeps this combo close to the line. Because combo props are more volatile, the under is the safer lean.
His season points plus rebounds is 23.8, so this is right near the market number. Given the home scoring dip and the opponent’s scoring suppression, the under gets the edge in a tight range.