AI Model:

Jarrett Allen▼

CLE · C

PPG

15.3

RPG

8.5

APG

1.9

L5 PPG

19.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.5

15.3

19.8

RPG-0.7

8.5

7.8

APG-0.5

1.9

1.4

SPG+0.2

1.0

1.2

BPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

OVER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

13.5

DEN

2026-02-09

2026-02-09 vs DEN: 22 pts

WAS

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs WAS: 21 pts

BKN

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs BKN: 15 pts

CHA

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs CHA: 26 pts

OKC

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs OKC: 11 pts

NYK

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NYK: 19 pts

MIL

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs MIL: 27 pts

DET

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DET: 25 pts

BKN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BKN: 20 pts

DET

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DET: 8 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 13.5STAKE

63%

REB

UNDER 9.5STAKE

66%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

78%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

60%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

98%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

62%

R+A

UNDER 11.5STAKE

71%

P+R

UNDER 23.5STAKE

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.0

20.2

RPG

7.9

10.5

APG

0.9

2.0

vs MIA (H2H)17 games

PPG

11.9

RPG

9.6

APG

1.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Ryan Kalkbrenner	2	18	67%	+2.5%	low
Joel Embiid	2	17	48%	-18.0%	low
Day'Ron Sharpe	3	16	40%	-24.2%	medium
Nikola Vučević	3	16	53%

Allen’s paint production looks efficient, but the rebounds are the safer angle

Jarrett Allen is trending up offensively relative to his season line, with 19.8 PPG over the last 5 compared to 15.3 PPG for the season, while his last 10 rebounding average is 9.8 versus 8.5 season-long. That said, his season home scoring is just 15.0 PPG and this is a home game, so the scoring spike is not as supported by splits as the recent form suggests. The matchup data also points to a tougher scoring environment: the opponent defense lists a 0.43 scoring suppression, and Allen’s 17-game history vs this opponent is only 11.94 PPG. With the team on a back-to-back, his minutes and efficiency could be a little less stable, making conservative unders and modest overs more appealing than aggressive combo plays.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.8(↑ from 15.3)

RPG

7.8(↓ from 8.5)

APG

1.4(↓ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

The available matchup data does include specific defender information, with Bam Adebayo listed at 49.8 minutes and 61 points allowed. Miami also shows a 0.43 scoring suppression, which is a meaningful headwind for scoring props, while Allen’s 17-game history vs this opponent is only 11.94 PPG.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Jarrett Allen▼	Points	13.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	80%
Jarrett Allen▼	Rebounds	9.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Jarrett Allen▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	90%
Jarrett Allen▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Jarrett Allen▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	98%HIGH	—	100%
Jarrett Allen▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	50%
Jarrett Allen▼	R+A	11.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	50%
Jarrett Allen▼	P+R	23.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	10%

ML Scout Analysis

P+R28.5UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼

P+A20.5UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 5x8/2040%▼

R+A11UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Jarrett Allen

Assists UNDER 2.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number on the board because Allen’s season average is 1.9 APG and his last 5 is only 1.4 APG. His home split is even lower at 0.9 APG, so 2.5 is a step too high unless the role changes sharply.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kel'el Ware	2	10	9	50%	56%
Bam Adebayo	1	5	1	0%	0%
Nikola Jović	2	2	0	0%	0%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	3	2	4	100%	100%
Davion Mitchell	3	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 13.563%MEDIUM

His season average is 15.3 PPG and the recent form is 19.8 PPG over the last 5, which clears 13.5 comfortably. The caution is that his home split is only 15.0 PPG and the opponent history is 11.94 PPG, so this is not a high-confidence over.

reboundsUNDER 9.566%MEDIUM

Allen’s season rebound average is 8.5 and his home split is 7.9 RPG, both below 9.5. Even though his last 10 is 9.8 RPG, the line is still a touch high relative to his baseline and the back-to-back adds some downside risk.

assistsUNDER 2.578%HIGH

He averages 1.9 APG on the season and 1.4 APG over the last 5, with a home mark of just 0.9 APG. That is well below 2.5, and the recent role has not shown a meaningful assist spike.

blocksOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

Allen averages 0.9 BPG for the season and 1.1 BPG over the last 20, so 0.5 is a low bar. The volatility is real, but the profile supports at least one block more often than not.

threesUNDER 0.598%HIGH

He averages 0.02 made threes per game for the season and 0.0 over the last 5 and last 10. This is a near-lock under based on volume.

stocksOVER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.84 and his last 20 is 2.1, which supports clearing 1.5. The variance is moderate, but the baseline production is above the line.

raUNDER 11.571%HIGH

Allen averages 10.4 rebounds plus assists on the season and 11.2 over the last 10, but the home split of 8.8 RPG plus 0.9 APG keeps this combo close to the line. Because combo props are more volatile, the under is the safer lean.

prUNDER 23.558%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds is 23.8, so this is right near the market number. Given the home scoring dip and the opponent’s scoring suppression, the under gets the edge in a tight range.

timelineOVER 13.5 PTS