AI Model:

Pelle Larsson▼

MIA · SF

PPG

11.0

RPG

3.4

APG

3.3

L5 PPG

13.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.2

11.0

13.2

RPG-0.8

3.4

2.6

APG-0.5

3.3

2.8

SPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

BPG-0.2

0.2

0.0

OVER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 16 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 11 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 10 pts

WAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs WAS: 10 pts

MIL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIL: 28 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 15 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 14 pts

LAL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAL: 11 pts

HOU

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs HOU: 19 pts

SAS

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs SAS: 7 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

3PM

OVER 0.5

57%

STL

OVER 0.5

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 1

54%

OVER 2

55%

P+R

OVER 9.5STAKE

60%

P+A

OVER 9.5STAKE

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.6

10.7

RPG

3.2

4.6

APG

4.0

2.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Desmond Bane	4	14	39%	-16.6%	medium
Kon Knueppel	4	10	81%	+12.6%	medium
Mikal Bridges	3	9	80%	+10.1%	medium
Cooper Flagg	2	9	45%

Larsson’s scoring is live, but the market still overprices his upside

Pelle Larsson is averaging 11.0 PPG, 3.4 RPG, and 3.3 APG on the season, with recent playing time up to 30.4 MPG over his last 10. His last 5 show 13.2 PPG and 30.0 MPG, but that sits above his season baseline and the trend tag is down, so a little regression is fair. The Heat wing is also more productive at home than away, and tonight's game is on the road, where he averages 10.7 PPG and 2.9 APG. With the opponent defense profile showing a 114.92 defensive rating and 1.07 three suppression, his scoring ceiling is playable but not automatic.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.2(↑ from 11.0)

RPG

2.6(↓ from 3.4)

APG

2.8(↓ from 3.3)

Key Matchup

Opponent defense data shows a 114.92 defensive rating, pace of 100, scoring suppression of -0.114, and three suppression of 1.07. key_defenders data lists Sam Merrill, Donovan Mitchell, and Dean Wade, but their minutes and points-allowed samples are too small to make a specific defender call.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Pelle Larsson▼	Points	9.5	OVER	72%HIGH	2/2	90%	FLIP	14	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP	5	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	FLIP	2	✗
Pelle Larsson▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%		1	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	40%		1	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	STL+BLK	1	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	30%	—	2	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	20%		5	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	P+R	9.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	—	19	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	P+A	9.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	100%	—	16	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER9%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x13/2065%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.239▼

P+R18UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x8/2040%▼

REB3.5OVER5%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.059▼

PRA18.5OVER28%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x13/2065%+12.2% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A17.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x9/2045%▼

AST3.5UNDER27%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA2UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

FTM4UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

FTA5UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A7.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 5x11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Pelle Larsson

Points OVER 9.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board because the market line is below his 11.0 season average and well below his 14.1 last-10 average. DraftKings shows a 12.9% edge with a positive EV profile, and his recent 30.4 MPG supports the opportunity even on the road.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Donovan Mitchell	3	8	11	44%	50%
Sam Merrill	4	6	0	0%	0%
James Harden	2	4	9	60%	90%
Lonzo Ball	2	4	3	0%	0%
Dennis Schröder	2	4	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 9.572%HIGH

He is averaging 11.0 PPG for the season and 14.1 PPG over his last 10, with his most recent usage supported by 30.4 MPG. The value data shows a 12.9% edge on 9.5 points at DraftKings, but the road split at 10.7 PPG keeps confidence in the low-70s rather than higher.

reboundsOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

Larsson is at 3.4 RPG for the season and 3.1 RPG over his last 10, so 2.5 is a modest bar. The edge is small at 1.7%, so this is more of a lean than a strong play.

assistsOVER 2.566%MEDIUM

He averages 3.3 APG on the season and 3.2 APG over his last 10, with 3.5 APG at home and 3.07 away. The 9.6% edge on this line supports an over, though the season std of 2.05 keeps it from being a high-confidence bet.

threesOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.92 made threes per game on the season and 1.0 over his last 10, so clearing 0.5 is reasonable. The away split is slightly softer at 0.7, so this is a modest lean only.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

Larsson averages 0.7 steals on the season and 0.7 over his last 10, with 1.2 at home but 0.6 away. The line is low, but the road split and volatility limit confidence.

stocksOVER 154%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.93 and recent is 0.8, so 1.0 is reachable but not a strong base case. Variance is high relative to the mean, which keeps this near coin-flip territory.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

He averages 2.0 turnovers over his last 20 and 1.9 over his last 10, with 2.6 in his last 5. That recent uptick points slightly over 2.0, but not with strong conviction.

prOVER 9.560%MEDIUM

He averages 11.0 points and 3.4 rebounds on the season, which gives him a fair cushion over 9.5 combined. Combo props carry extra variance, so this stays moderate despite the favorable base numbers.

paOVER 9.563%MEDIUM

Larsson's season points plus assists profile is 14.3 combined from 11.0 PPG and 3.3 APG, well above 9.5. Recent minutes are elevated, but combo variance keeps confidence restrained.

timelineOVER 9.5 PTS