AI Model:

Tyler Herro▲

MIA · SG

PPG

21.4

RPG

5.0

APG

3.8

L5 PPG

18.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.6

21.4

18.8

RPG+1.6

5.0

6.6

APG+0.4

3.8

4.2

SPG-0.3

0.7

0.4

BPG0.0

0.4

OVER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

19.5

HOU

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs HOU: 18 pts

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 22 pts

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 25 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 33 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 25 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 10 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 20 pts

LAL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAL: 21 pts

HOU

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs HOU: 25 pts

SAS

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs SAS: 18 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 19.5STAKE

60%

REB

UNDER 5.5STAKE

58%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

79%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

UNDER 0.8

61%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

70%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

64%

OVER 2

57%

P+R

OVER 24.5STAKE

56%

P+A

OVER 23.5STAKE

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.8

21.8

RPG

4.3

5.8

APG

3.7

4.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Max Christie	2	11	50%	-8.1%	low
Sam Hauser	2	9	67%	+18.6%	low
Sam Merrill	2	9	63%	+1.9%	low
Duncan Robinson	2	9	42%

Herro's usage supports points and assists, but the 19.5 scoring line is already tight

Tyler Herro is averaging 21.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 3.8 APG on the season, with his last 10 rising to 21.7 PPG and 4.3 APG while playing 31.9 MPG. The recent scoring dip in his last 5 to 18.8 PPG is a mild concern, especially since the over/under at 19.5 is close to his season norm and not a clear mismatch. His away splits are slightly better than home at 21.8 PPG and 4.7 APG, which helps, but the safest angle is still the assists market where the value props show strong edge. Rebounds are steady enough to consider, but his higher variance in points and combo props keeps confidence in check.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.8(↓ from 21.4)

RPG

6.6(↑ from 5.0)

APG

4.2(↑ from 3.8)

Key Matchup

The available key defender data does not give a single clear shutdown matchup, and the listed defenders show no specific defender matchup data beyond small sample points allowed figures. Cleveland is on a back-to-back, which can help overall offensive efficiency, but there is no specific defender matchup data to make a stronger claim.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Tyler Herro▼	Points	19.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	70%		18	✗
Tyler Herro▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%		2	✓
Tyler Herro▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	79%HIGH	2/2	60%		4	✓
Tyler Herro▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	30%		4	✓
Tyler Herro▼	Steals	0.8	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	50%	0.8→1.5	3	✗
Tyler Herro▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	70%	FLIP	0	✓
Tyler Herro▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	100%		3	✗
Tyler Herro▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%	2→2.5	2	✗
Tyler Herro▼	P+R	24.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	FLIP	20	✗
Tyler Herro▼	P+A	23.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	FLIP	22	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R25.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

AST3.5OVER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)13/2065%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.111; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

PRA29.5UNDER24%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS21.5UNDER13%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

REB4.5UNDER22%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x8/2040%+7.0% edge▼

3PM2.5UNDER29%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge changed +0.031▼

P+A26UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Tyler Herro

Assists OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board: Herro's season mean is 3.8 APG, his last 10 is 4.3, and his away split is 4.7 APG. The value data shows a 18.8% edge at BetMGM with 30.96 EV per 100, so it stands out more than the tighter points or rebound markets.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Sam Merrill	2	9	10	50%	63%
Keon Ellis	2	4	5	50%	63%
Donovan Mitchell	2	4	2	25%	25%
James Harden	2	2	7	100%	125%
Dennis Schröder	2	2	2	100%	100%

pointsOVER 19.560%MEDIUM

Herro's season mean is 21.4 PPG and his last 10 is 21.7, but the last 5 at 18.8 shows some cooling. The line is only 19.5, so the over is playable, though the recent dip and standard deviation of 4.74 keep confidence moderate.

reboundsUNDER 5.558%MEDIUM

He averages 5.0 RPG on the season and 4.96 in prop metrics, which sits below 5.5. His last 5 at 6.6 is above average, but that is a short-window bump and not enough to ignore the season baseline.

assistsOVER 3.579%HIGH

His season average is 3.8 APG, last 10 is 4.3, and away mean is 4.27, all above the 3.5 line. The value data also shows a 18.8% edge at BetMGM and similar strong edges across books, making this his best statistical edge.

threesOVER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.48 threes per game with a recent mean of 2.8 and home/away marks both near the line. This is close enough to be viable, and the value props show a 16.9% to 17.4% edge on the over at multiple books.

stealsUNDER 0.861%MEDIUM

His season steal rate is 0.7 SPG and the last 10 is only 0.5, which is below a typical 0.8 threshold. With recent stocks at just 0.8 over the last 5 and b2b_mean for stocks at 0.33, this is not a strong over target.

blocksUNDER 0.570%HIGH

He averages 0.4 BPG on the season and 0.3 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a bit high for his profile. The block prop is also inherently low-volume, which supports the under.

stocksUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

His combined season stocks average is 1.08 and the recent mean is 0.8, both below 1.5. With only moderate defensive event volume, the under is the cleaner side.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

He is at 2.2 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.4 over both the last 5 and last 10, so 2.0 is reachable. That said, turnover props can be volatile, so confidence stays modest.

prOVER 24.556%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds baseline is 26.4, but the recent points dip and the fact that combo props carry extra variance make this less attractive than the individual markets. This is playable, but not a priority.

paOVER 23.562%MEDIUM

Herro averages 25.2 points plus assists on the season and 26.0 over the last 10, which clears 23.5. The recent assist trend supports this, though the points dip keeps it below elite confidence.

timelineOVER 19.5 PTS