Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Merrill | 4 | 14 | 100% | +25.1% | medium |
| Matas Buzelis | 4 | 12 | 59% | +12.9% | medium |
| Jake LaRavia | 2 | 11 | 25% | -24.9% | low |
| Aaron Nesmith | 3 | 10 | 57% |
AJ Green’s season line is 9.6 PPG, 2.5 RPG, and 1.8 APG, but his recent production has cooled to 8.2 PPG over the last 5 and 6.7 PPG over the last 10 while minutes have been just 20.0. The absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr. should help usage, but his recent game logs still show inconsistent scoring with several low-output nights. Portland’s defense has a 117.08 defensive rating and the matchup context does not point to a big breakout, so the safer lean is toward unders on inflated lines.
Key defender data is limited, so there is no specific defender matchup data. Portland’s opponent defense shows a 117.08 defensive rating, and the team’s three-point suppression number of 0.639 does not suggest an easy shooting environment.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ Green▼ | Points | 10.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 5 | ✓ |
AJ Green▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 4 | ✗ |
AJ Green▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 2/2 | 100% | 5 | ✗ |
AJ Green▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
AJ Green▼ | Steals | 0.5 | UNDER | 69%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 1 | ✗ |
AJ Green▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | — | 100% | 1 | ✓ |
AJ Green▼ | Turnovers | 2 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | — | 100% | 1 | ✓ |
AJ Green▼ | P+A | 12.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 10 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest angle because his season average is 1.8 APG and his last 10 are down to 1.1 APG. Even with teammate absences, his recent role has not translated into consistent playmaking volume, and 2.5 is a number he has been below most of the time.
| medium |
| Mikal Bridges | 3 | 10 | 31% | -16.6% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toumani Camara | 1 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 150% |
| Jerami Grant | 1 | 2 | 7 | 100% | 125% |
| Deni Avdija | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0% | 0% |
| Kris Murray | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Caleb Love | 1 | 1 | 7 | 60% | 70% |
Season scoring is 9.6 PPG and the last-10 mark is only 6.7 PPG, below this 10.5 line. Even with teammate absences, his recent minutes have been 20.0 and the scoring profile has not been stable enough to trust an over.
He averages 2.5 RPG on the season and 2.2 RPG over the last 10, which leaves little margin over this number. Recent role data shows only 20.0 MPG, keeping rebound volume limited.
His season assist average is 1.8 and recent form is even lower at 1.1 over the last 10. The 2.5 line is above both baseline and recent production, making the under the safer side.
He averages 2.76 threes per game on the season, but recent mean is 1.9 and his last 10 have trended down. Because prop lines only provided under the points/rebounds/assists categories, this projected line is based on season output and still slightly favors the under.
He is at 0.5 SPG on the season and only 0.2 over the last 5 and last 10. With no strong takeaway from recent defensive counting stats, the under is the more reliable side at a 0.5 line.
His combined stocks are only 0.54 on the season and 0.2 over the last 10. The gap to a 1.5-type threshold is too large, so this is a clear under if available.
He is not a high-turnover player, with recent topg at 1.0 and season usage that has not shown elevated ball-handling responsibility. Any projected line at 2.0 would be above his normal range.
His season points plus assists profile is 11.4 using 9.6 PPG and 1.8 APG, and the recent form has been lower. Combo props add variance, so with the line at 12.5 the under is preferred.