AI Model:

AJ Green▲

MIL · SG

PPG

9.6

RPG

2.5

APG

1.8

L5 PPG

8.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.4

9.6

8.2

RPG+0.5

2.5

3.0

APG-0.6

1.8

1.2

SPG-0.3

0.5

0.2

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

10.5

UTA

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs UTA: 7 pts

ORL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs ORL: 4 pts

PHX

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHX: 3 pts

MIA

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIA: 3 pts

ATL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ATL: 9 pts

IND

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs IND: 12 pts

CLE

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CLE: 6 pts

UTA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs UTA: 0 pts

PHX

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs PHX: 8 pts

LAC

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs LAC: 15 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5STAKE

66%

REB

UNDER 2.5STAKE

61%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

70%

3PM

UNDER 2.5

58%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

69%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

72%

UNDER 2

63%

P+A

UNDER 12.5STAKE

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

6.5

7.9

RPG

2.2

2.0

APG

1.1

1.9

vs POR (H2H)4 games

PPG

6.8

RPG

1.3

APG

0.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Sam Merrill	4	14	100%	+25.1%	medium
Matas Buzelis	4	12	59%	+12.9%	medium
Jake LaRavia	2	11	25%	-24.9%	low
Aaron Nesmith	3	10	57%

AJ Green’s role is boosted, but scoring ceiling remains modest

AJ Green’s season line is 9.6 PPG, 2.5 RPG, and 1.8 APG, but his recent production has cooled to 8.2 PPG over the last 5 and 6.7 PPG over the last 10 while minutes have been just 20.0. The absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr. should help usage, but his recent game logs still show inconsistent scoring with several low-output nights. Portland’s defense has a 117.08 defensive rating and the matchup context does not point to a big breakout, so the safer lean is toward unders on inflated lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.2(↓ from 9.6)

RPG

3.0(↑ from 2.5)

APG

1.2(↓ from 1.8)

3PM

1.9(↓ from 2.8)

Key Matchup

Key defender data is limited, so there is no specific defender matchup data. Portland’s opponent defense shows a 117.08 defensive rating, and the team’s three-point suppression number of 0.639 does not suggest an easy shooting environment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
AJ Green▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	5	✓
AJ Green▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✗
AJ Green▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	100%	5	✗
AJ Green▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	1	✓
AJ Green▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✗
AJ Green▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	100%	1	✓
AJ Green▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	100%	1	✓
AJ Green▼	P+A	12.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	10	✓

ML Scout Analysis

3PA6UNDER32%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

PRA12OVER13%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

AST2UNDER28%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)4/2020%▼

P+R11UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

P+A10UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

PTS7OVER2%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

REB2.5OVER25%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

FTA0.5UNDER14%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

R+A4.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

3PM2UNDER46%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

AJ Green

Assists UNDER 2.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season average is 1.8 APG and his last 10 are down to 1.1 APG. Even with teammate absences, his recent role has not translated into consistent playmaking volume, and 2.5 is a number he has been below most of the time.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Toumani Camara	1	3	3	100%	150%
Jerami Grant	1	2	7	100%	125%
Deni Avdija	2	2	3	0%	0%
Kris Murray	1	1	0	0%	0%
Caleb Love	1	1	7	60%	70%

pointsUNDER 10.566%MEDIUM

Season scoring is 9.6 PPG and the last-10 mark is only 6.7 PPG, below this 10.5 line. Even with teammate absences, his recent minutes have been 20.0 and the scoring profile has not been stable enough to trust an over.

reboundsUNDER 2.561%MEDIUM

He averages 2.5 RPG on the season and 2.2 RPG over the last 10, which leaves little margin over this number. Recent role data shows only 20.0 MPG, keeping rebound volume limited.

assistsUNDER 2.570%HIGH

His season assist average is 1.8 and recent form is even lower at 1.1 over the last 10. The 2.5 line is above both baseline and recent production, making the under the safer side.

threesUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 2.76 threes per game on the season, but recent mean is 1.9 and his last 10 have trended down. Because prop lines only provided under the points/rebounds/assists categories, this projected line is based on season output and still slightly favors the under.

stealsUNDER 0.569%MEDIUM

He is at 0.5 SPG on the season and only 0.2 over the last 5 and last 10. With no strong takeaway from recent defensive counting stats, the under is the more reliable side at a 0.5 line.

stocksUNDER 1.572%HIGH

His combined stocks are only 0.54 on the season and 0.2 over the last 10. The gap to a 1.5-type threshold is too large, so this is a clear under if available.

turnoversUNDER 263%MEDIUM

He is not a high-turnover player, with recent topg at 1.0 and season usage that has not shown elevated ball-handling responsibility. Any projected line at 2.0 would be above his normal range.

paUNDER 12.564%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is 11.4 using 9.6 PPG and 1.8 APG, and the recent form has been lower. Combo props add variance, so with the line at 12.5 the under is preferred.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS