AI Model:

Deni Avdija▼

POR · SF

PPG

24.1

RPG

6.9

APG

6.7

L5 PPG

23.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.9

24.1

23.2

RPG+0.3

6.9

7.2

APG-0.5

6.7

6.2

SPG-0.4

0.8

0.4

BPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

UNDER 24.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

24.5

PHX

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs PHX: 0 pts

IND

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs IND: 18 pts

CHA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHA: 22 pts

UTA

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs UTA: 17 pts

PHI

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs PHI: 25 pts

BKN

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BKN: 18 pts

IND

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs IND: 32 pts

MIN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs MIN: 25 pts

DEN

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs DEN: 23 pts

BKN

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs BKN: 18 pts

Over 24.5

Under 24.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 24.5DRAFTKINGS

86%

REB

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

AST

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

UNDER 0.8

55%

BLK

UNDER 0.6

54%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

UNDER 3.9

58%

PRA

UNDER 37.7

56%

P+A

UNDER 30.8

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

23.5

19.2

RPG

6.0

6.7

APG

6.7

5.5

vs MIL (H2H)14 games

PPG

13.1

RPG

6.8

APG

2.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
P.J. Washington	3	16	72%	+10.1%	medium
Cameron Johnson	4	16	59%	+9.0%	medium
Saddiq Bey	3	14	50%	-1.8%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	3	14	35%

Avdija’s all-around role stays massive, but the points line looks a touch high

Deni Avdija is still carrying a major usage load with Damian Lillard and Shaedon Sharpe both out, and his season line of 24.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG, and 6.7 APG shows true multi-category volume. The recent scoring trend has cooled, though, with 19.8 PPG over the last 10 and 23.2 over the last 5 versus 24.1 for the season, so the market may be giving him too much credit on the points side. Home production is stronger at 23.5 PPG and 6.7 APG, but his history vs this opponent is much lower at 13.14 PPG and 2.93 APG across 14 games. With Milwaukee missing Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr., the matchup helps overall efficiency, but the best value still leans to the under on inflated scoring props.

Stat Trends

PPG

23.2(↓ from 24.1)

RPG

7.2(↑ from 6.9)

APG

6.2(↓ from 6.7)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and Milwaukee's overall context includes a 116.39 defensive rating with 0.218 scoring suppression. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr. are both out, which helps Avdija's environment, but the opponent still shows pace of 100 and no specific defender matchup data to target.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Deni Avdija▼	Points	24.5	UNDER	86%HIGH	2/2	70%	24.1→24.5	18	✓
Deni Avdija▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	7→7.5	4	✓
Deni Avdija▼	Assists	6.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP	7	✗
Deni Avdija▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	100%	2→2.5	1	✓
Deni Avdija▼	Steals	0.8	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	50%	FLIP	0	✓
Deni Avdija▼	Blocks	0.6	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%	FLIP	1	✗
Deni Avdija▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%		1	✓
Deni Avdija▼	Turnovers	3.9	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%	FLIP	4	✗
Deni Avdija▼	PRA	37.7	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	37.5→37.7	29	✓
Deni Avdija▼	P+A	30.8	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	30.5→30.8	25	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A28UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

PTS20UNDER14%gbt_pointsAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

AST7UNDER15%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/1937%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PM1UNDER34%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)6/1932%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA5UNDER48%gbtAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x8/1942%▼

FTM8UNDER23%gbtAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

FTA10UNDER8%gbtAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

PRA35UNDER39%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)9/1947%▼

P+R27.5UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

REB6UNDER14%gbt_reboundsAvoid (5/20)8/1942%▼

Featured Pick

Deni Avdija

Points UNDER 24.5HIGH

This is the clearest value on the board: the line is 24.5 and the value data shows a 27.7% edge with our projected under probability at 0.789. His recent scoring has slid to 19.8 over the last 10, and his 14-game history vs this opponent is only 13.14 PPG, making the under the strongest play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kyle Kuzma	1	4	6	20%	20%
Gary Harris	1	3	0	0%	0%
AJ Green	2	2	2	50%	50%
Bobby Portis	1	1	4	67%	67%
Gary Trent Jr.	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 24.586%HIGH

The line is 24.5 and the value data strongly favors UNDER with a 27.7% edge and our_prob_under at 0.789. His recent scoring has dipped to 19.8 over the last 10, and his vs-opponent scoring average is only 13.14 across 14 games.

reboundsUNDER 7.561%MEDIUM

He averages 6.95 rebounds for the season and 5.7 over the last 10, both below 7.5. The edge is smaller here than points, but the recent dip and lower away-rebound profile support the under.

assistsUNDER 6.557%MEDIUM

Season assists sit at 6.73, but the last 10 is 6.3 and his against-opponent history is only 2.93 APG over 14 games. The line is tight, and the recent workload has not clearly pushed him above this number.

threesUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.96 made threes on the season and only 1.0 over the last 10, so 2.5 is above both recent and season production. The recent shooting volume has also cooled to 1.0 fg3m per game in the last 10.

stealsUNDER 0.855%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 0.8 steals on the season, but just 0.6 over the last 10 and 0.4 over the last 5. With the trend down, the under is slightly safer at an even-money style threshold.

blocksUNDER 0.654%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.6 blocks, but the last 5 is down to 0.4. That makes a projected 0.6 line a modest under lean rather than an over target.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

Stocks average 1.41 on the season and 1.3 over the last 10, which is below a 1.5 line. His defensive counting stats are useful but not consistently above this threshold.

turnoversUNDER 3.958%MEDIUM

He averages 3.9 turnovers on the last 20 and 3.5 over the last 10, so a projected 3.9 line is right around his typical range. The recent 3.8 mark over the last 5 keeps this as a slight under lean.

praUNDER 37.756%MEDIUM

Using season averages, his PRA projects to 37.7, but combo props carry extra variance and the model is more skeptical here. Recent scoring and assist trends are both below season level, which limits over appeal.

paUNDER 30.855%MEDIUM

Points plus assists project to 30.8 on season averages, but the last 10 scoring drop to 19.8 and assists at 6.3 make the ceiling less reliable. With combo-prop caution, the under is the more conservative side.

timelineUNDER 24.5 PTS