AI Model:

Gary Trent Jr.▲

MIL · SF

PPG

7.7

RPG

1.0

APG

1.2

L5 PPG

9.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.1

7.7

9.8

RPG+0.4

1.0

1.4

APG-0.8

1.2

0.4

SPG-0.5

0.5

0.0

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

OVER 6.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

6.5

NYK

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs NYK: 5 pts

CHI

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs CHI: 3 pts

BOS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs BOS: 2 pts

ATL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs ATL: 0 pts

UTA

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs UTA: 3 pts

ORL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs ORL: 9 pts

ATL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ATL: 5 pts

UTA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs UTA: 4 pts

PHX

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs PHX: 11 pts

LAC

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs LAC: 20 pts

Over 6.5

Under 6.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 6.5STAKE

58%

REB

UNDER 1.5STAKE

69%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

78%

3PM

OVER 1.5

57%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

74%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

90%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

86%

OVER 0.5

56%

PRA

UNDER 10.5STAKE

73%

P+A

UNDER 9.5STAKE

71%

P+R

UNDER 8.5STAKE

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.4

7.1

RPG

0.7

0.5

APG

0.5

0.4

vs POR (H2H)10 games

PPG

12.9

RPG

3.2

APG

1.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Brandon Ingram	4	16	61%	+18.1%	medium
Collin Sexton	4	8	125%	+61.0%	medium
Anfernee Simons	2	8	88%	+36.0%	low
Max Christie	2	7	0%

Trent gets usage boost, but his scoring floor is still modest

Gary Trent Jr. is in a spot where teammate absences should help his role, with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr. both out. Even so, his season line is still only 7.7 PPG, 1.0 RPG, and 1.2 APG across 21.1 MPG, and his last-10 scoring sits at 6.2 PPG with only 13.0 MPG. The matchup is not especially clean for a ceiling game either, as Portland allows a 117.08 defensive rating and has strong three-point suppression at 0.639, which matters for a low-usage perimeter scorer. His recent spike to 20 points looks like an outlier against a much lower baseline, so the safer angle is to lean under on inflated lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.8(↑ from 7.7)

RPG

1.4(↑ from 1.0)

APG

0.4(↓ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders; Portland's team data shows a 117.08 defensive rating and strong three-point suppression at 0.639, which is the main obstacle for a perimeter scorer.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Gary Trent Jr.▼	Points	6.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	0	✗
Gary Trent Jr.▼	Rebounds	1.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	90%	0	✓
Gary Trent Jr.▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	100%	0	✓
Gary Trent Jr.▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	0	✗
Gary Trent Jr.▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	90%	1	✗
Gary Trent Jr.▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	90%HIGH	—	100%	0	✓
Gary Trent Jr.▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	86%HIGH	—	100%	1	✓
Gary Trent Jr.▼	Turnovers	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Gary Trent Jr.▼	PRA	10.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	2/2	70%	0	✓
Gary Trent Jr.▼	P+A	9.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	80%	0	✓
Gary Trent Jr.▼	P+R	8.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	0	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA12OVER30%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x5/1146%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R13.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x4/1136%▼

P+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x5/1146%▼

PTS11UNDER14%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x5/1146%▼

3PA5UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x5/1146%▼

R+A2.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x5/1146%▼

REB1UNDER22%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x3/1127%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST1UNDER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)4/1136%▼

3PM2UNDER17%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x5/1146%▼

Featured Pick

Gary Trent Jr.

Assists UNDER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number on the board based on the data. Gary Trent Jr. is at 1.2 APG for the season but only 0.2 APG over the last 10 and 0.4 over the last 5, so the recent trend is sharply below the line. With his minutes also down to 13.0 over the last 10, the under has the strongest profile.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Caleb Love	2	3	3	50%	75%
Kris Murray	1	2	0	0%	0%
Sidy Cissoko	1	2	0	0%	0%
Jerami Grant	1	2	0	0%	0%
Rayan Rupert	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 6.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 7.7 PPG, and the missing usage from Giannis and Kevin Porter Jr. should help him stay in the scoring mix. That said, the line is close and his last-10 minutes have been just 13.0 MPG, so this is not a strong over.

reboundsUNDER 1.569%MEDIUM

He averages only 1.0 RPG on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, which is below this line. His rebound profile is too thin to trust an over even with extra minutes.

assistsUNDER 1.578%HIGH

He averages 1.2 APG on the season but only 0.2 over the last 10 and 0.4 over the last 5. The recent assist trend is clearly below the line.

threesOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.83 made threes per game on the season and 1.5 over the last 5, with 1.6 over the last 20. Portland's three suppression is a concern, but his volume still supports a slight lean over.

stealsUNDER 0.574%HIGH

He is at 0.5 SPG for the season but has been at 0.0 over the last 5 and 0.1 over the last 10. The recent production simply does not support an over.

blocksUNDER 0.590%HIGH

He averages only 0.1 BPG on the season and 0.0 over the last 10 and last 5. This is far below the threshold.

stocksUNDER 1.586%HIGH

His season stocks average is only 0.53, and recent form is 0.1 over the last 10 and 0.0 over the last 5. He does not generate enough defensive counting stats to justify an over.

turnoversOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He has 0.3 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 0.5 over the last 10, with a few recent games reaching 1 turnover. This is a low-confidence over because the role is still modest.

praUNDER 10.573%HIGH

His season PRA is 9.9 using the provided season means, and the last-10 usage drop to 13.0 MPG makes the over fragile. Combo props are volatile here, so the under is the safer side.

paUNDER 9.571%HIGH

He combines 7.7 points with just 1.2 assists on the season, which keeps his PA profile below this number. Recent assists have been especially weak at 0.2 over the last 10.

prUNDER 8.566%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds average is 8.73, but the recent minutes dip lowers the projection. This is close, but the under is still the more conservative side.

timelineOVER 6.5 PTS