AI Model:

Jerami Grant▲

POR · PF

PPG

18.7

RPG

3.6

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

15.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.7

18.7

15.0

RPG-0.2

3.6

3.4

APG-0.7

2.3

1.6

SPG+0.3

0.7

1.0

BPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

18.5

ATL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ATL: 4 pts

MEM

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MEM: 30 pts

HOU

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs HOU: 21 pts

IND

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs IND: 21 pts

CHA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHA: 24 pts

UTA

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs UTA: 9 pts

PHI

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs PHI: 20 pts

BKN

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BKN: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs IND: 8 pts

MIN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs MIN: 26 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5

61%

REB

OVER 3.5

55%

AST

UNDER 2.5

58%

3PM

OVER 2.5

57%

STL

OVER 0.5

54%

BLK

OVER 0.5

52%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

56%

OVER 2

55%

PRA

UNDER 24.5

60%

P+A

UNDER 21

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.5

18.3

RPG

3.4

3.5

APG

1.6

1.9

vs MIL (H2H)11 games

PPG

20.5

RPG

3.6

APG

1.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jimmy Butler III	3	12	67%	+21.2%	medium
Julius Randle	4	11	50%	-8.0%	medium
GG Jackson	3	10	45%	-9.1%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	10	90%

Grant’s usage is elevated, but his scoring profile still points to a modest night

Jerami Grant’s season line sits at 18.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists across 30 MPG, while his last 10 games are very close at 17.5/3.5/2.0 with 32 MPG. The key wrinkle is the injury context: Damian Lillard and Shaedon Sharpe are out, which supports his offensive role, but Grant’s own injury status is questionable with a left foot issue. Milwaukee’s defense has a 116.39 rating and the matchup data does not show a specific defender edge, so this looks more like a controlled volume spot than a ceiling game.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.0(↓ from 18.7)

RPG

3.4(→ from 3.6)

APG

1.6(↓ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

Milwaukee’s defense carries a 116.39 defensive rating, and the matchup data shows no specific defender matchup data. The available key defenders list is minimal, so the stronger read comes from the team defense context rather than a single on-ball stopper.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jerami Grant▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	18	✓
Jerami Grant▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	2	✗
Jerami Grant▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	0	✓
Jerami Grant▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	4	✓
Jerami Grant▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✗
Jerami Grant▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✓
Jerami Grant▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Jerami Grant▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%	3	✓
Jerami Grant▼	PRA	24.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	20	✓
Jerami Grant▼	P+A	21	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	18	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS19.5UNDER21%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A19OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

AST1.5OVER3%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PM2.5UNDER36%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R21OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

PRA23UNDER30%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

3PA6UNDER29%gbtAvoid (7/20)7/2035%▼

REB3UNDER14%gbt_reboundsAvoid (6/20)8/2040%▼

FTM2UNDER32%gbtAvoid (6/20)7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER13%gbtAvoid (6/20)8/2040%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

Featured Pick

Jerami Grant

Assists UNDER 2.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest lean because his season mean is 2.26 and his last 5 are down to 1.6. Even with teammate absences, his assist trend has not shown enough lift, and the lower volatility relative to scoring makes this a steadier angle.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Myles Turner	1	4	0	0%	0%
AJ Green	2	3	2	100%	100%
Kyle Kuzma	1	2	2	100%	100%
Gary Trent Jr.	1	1	0	0%	0%
Bobby Portis	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 18.561%MEDIUM

His season mean is 18.72, but the last 5 are down to 15.0 and his b2b mean is only 17.75, so this is not a strong over profile. The questionable left foot status adds downside risk to his scoring ceiling.

reboundsOVER 3.555%MEDIUM

Grant is right around this number with a 3.56 season mean and 3.5 over the last 10. This is a low-variance area relative to his scoring, though the edge is thin.

assistsUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.26 and the last 5 are just 1.6, so the under is supported by both season and recent form. Even with teammate absences, his assist production has not shown enough lift to justify the over.

threesOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.39 threes on the season and 2.7 over the last 5, with 2.6 over the last 20. That keeps him slightly above this projected line, though the standard deviation of 1.58 makes it volatile.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

Grant averages 0.7 steals per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 5. The floor is modest, but his recent defensive play supports a small lean over.

blocksOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks per game and 0.5 over the last 20, which keeps him near this threshold. This is a thin play given the natural volatility in blocks.

stocksUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.31 and the recent mean is 1.6, but that recent bump comes with high variance. Because combo-style outcomes are less reliable, the under is the safer side at this number.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

He has 2.0 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 2.3 over the last 10, with 2.4 over the last 5. The recent trend is firmly above this line.

praUNDER 24.560%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 24.56, but that comes with a lower recent scoring profile and only moderate assist/rebound support. Given the over-bias warning and his questionable status, the under is the more conservative side.

paUNDER 2159%MEDIUM

Points plus assists are driven by his 18.7 PPG and 2.3 APG season averages, but both have softened recently. This line needs a stronger scoring or playmaking spike than his current form suggests.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS