AI Model:

Kyle Kuzma▲

MIL · PF

PPG

13.1

RPG

4.5

APG

2.6

L5 PPG

10.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.5

13.1

10.6

RPG-1.7

4.5

2.8

APG0.0

2.6

SPG+0.2

0.6

0.8

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

OVER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

CHI

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs CHI: 10 pts

ATL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs ATL: 16 pts

UTA

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs UTA: 18 pts

PHX

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHX: 33 pts

MIA

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIA: 5 pts

ATL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ATL: 11 pts

IND

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs IND: 8 pts

CLE

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CLE: 3 pts

UTA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs UTA: 11 pts

PHX

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs PHX: 20 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 12.5STAKE

58%

REB

UNDER 5.5STAKE

72%

AST

OVER 2.5STAKE

55%

3PM

OVER 1.5

57%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

59%

OVER 2

56%

P+R

UNDER 17.5STAKE

61%

P+A

OVER 14.5STAKE

53%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.6

11.4

RPG

3.8

4.0

APG

3.9

1.8

vs POR (H2H)9 games

PPG

16.0

RPG

7.2

APG

2.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Paul George	3	14	50%	-15.8%	medium
Miles Bridges	4	11	46%	-13.4%	medium
Karl-Anthony Towns	3	10	44%	-11.6%	medium
Kon Knueppel	3	10	70%

Giannis and KPJ absences boost Kuzma’s usage, but the recent scoring dip keeps the outlook cautious

Kyle Kuzma’s season line sits at 13.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.6 assists in 26.4 MPG, and the biggest swing factor is the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr. That said, his recent form is uneven: he’s at 10.6 PPG over the last 5 and 13.5 PPG over the last 10, while his last 5 rebounds have dropped to 2.8 from a 4.5 season average. Portland has a weak defensive profile with a 117.08 defensive rating, and Kuzma has averaged 16.0 PPG in 9 career games vs this opponent, but his questionable Achilles status adds risk to minutes and efficiency.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.6(↓ from 13.1)

RPG

2.8(↓ from 4.5)

APG

2.6(→ from 2.6)

Key Matchup

Portland’s opponent profile is favorable on paper with a 117.08 defensive rating and 100 pace, but there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed players. Kuzma has also averaged 16.0 PPG in 9 games against this opponent, which supports his scoring floor.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Kyle Kuzma▼	Points	12.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%
Kyle Kuzma▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	100%
Kyle Kuzma▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Kyle Kuzma▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%
Kyle Kuzma▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%
Kyle Kuzma▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	60%
Kyle Kuzma▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	70%
Kyle Kuzma▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	30%
Kyle Kuzma▼	P+R	17.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Kyle Kuzma▼	P+A	14.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	2/2	50%

ML Scout Analysis

PRA20.5UNDER9%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

3PA5UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

PTS14UNDER17%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

REB4UNDER38%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)4/2020%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER17%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

FTM1UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

P+R17.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

P+A16.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

AST2OVER22%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PM1.5UNDER38%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Kyle Kuzma

Rebounds UNDER 5.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season average is 4.5 RPG and his last 5 and last 10 rebound numbers are both 2.8 and 2.7, respectively. The line is too high relative to current production, and the under aligns with both form and season baseline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Deni Avdija	1	5	9	43%	57%
Donovan Clingan	1	2	0	0%	0%
Jerami Grant	1	1	5	67%	67%
Robert Williams III	1	1	0	0%	0%
Sidy Cissoko	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 12.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 13.1 PPG and he has a 16.0 PPG average in 9 games vs Portland. The outs for Giannis and Kevin Porter Jr. support usage, but the last-5 slump to 10.6 PPG and questionable status limit confidence.

reboundsUNDER 5.572%HIGH

He averages 4.5 RPG on the season and only 2.8 RPG over the last 5, well below this line. His last 10 rebound average is also just 2.7, so the under fits the current role and form.

assistsOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

Kuzma’s season mean is 2.57 APG and his recent mean is 2.8 APG, both just above the line. The absence of Kevin Porter Jr. helps playmaking responsibility, though the margin is small.

threesOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.23 made threes per game on the season and 1.7 over the last 5, with 1.9 over the last 20. The volume is there, but the variance is meaningful.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He’s at 0.6 SPG for the season and 0.8 over the last 5, so clearing 0.5 is reasonable. The upside is modest, but the line is low enough to consider.

blocksUNDER 0.563%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.4 BPG and his last 20 is only 0.2 BPG. Even with a few recent blocks, the baseline favors the under.

stocksUNDER 1.559%MEDIUM

He averages 1.03 stocks on the season and 1.2 over the last 5, both below this threshold. Recent production has improved, but not enough to make 1.5 a strong over.

turnoversOVER 256%MEDIUM

He’s at 2.1 turnovers over the last 10 and 1.9 over the last 20, with 2.6 APG seasonally. The ball-handling load should stay elevated without Giannis and KPJ.

prUNDER 17.561%MEDIUM

His season averages sum to 17.6 P+R, but the recent rebound drop to 2.8 makes this combo fragile. Combo props carry extra variance, and his current form points slightly below the line.

paOVER 14.553%MEDIUM

He averages 15.7 points plus assists on the season and 13.2 over the last 5. The season baseline is above the line, but the recent scoring dip keeps this close.

timelineOVER 12.5 PTS